Last week, Rashaad Penny uploaded a short workout video that showed him running through an agility ladder. Promising? No doubt. But soon social media took over, with posts questioning Penny’s readiness for the 2020 season. Familiarizing myself with the situation, I thought it would be as good a time as any to break down Penny’s injury history and forecast what his upcoming season might look like, assuming it starts on time.
— Rashaad Penny (@pennyhendrixx) July 21, 2020
Penny’s 2019 Injury
In early December of the 2019 season, Penny tore his left anterior cruciate ligament (ACL), effectively ending his season. Although any injury is unfortunate, this one was particularly saddening because it appeared that Penny was just starting to find his rhythm. Penny’s rookie season was rather underwhelming and although 2019 started the same way, Penny was able to string together a pair of impressive fantasy point totals in Weeks 12 and 13.
Penny’s ACL tear occurred on December 8th. Although I could not determine exactly when Penny had his ACL repaired, I can only assume that given the current medical research advocating for early intervention and the orthopedic doctors available to the Seahawks, he had it soon after his original injury.
Following his surgery, reports were optimistic that Penny would be able to start the 2020 season. The “accepted timeline” for ACL repairs these days is 9 months. However, given my clinical experience and what I have learned from studying the latest research, 9 months is a good estimate for when an athlete can return following an ACL repair (ACLR). That timeline, however, is not set in stone.
What the Research Shows
Due to their prevalence, ACL injuries are by far the most researched injury in sports medicine. There are hundreds of published articles from credible sources in the last 5 years alone. There has been research on what grafts are the best for repairs, what surgeries yield the best outcomes, what is the best way to prevent re-injury, the list goes on.
In regards to return to sport times, there was initially a push for a time based protocol, followed by studies advocating for a criteria-based protocol that would require athletes to meet specific prerequisites prior to being cleared for play. Taking all of this information into account, I personally think it’s a combination of both. You need to allow ample time for healing while making sure that there is objective data that reinforces the athlete is ready to play.
Healing Times
Research has shown that around 3 months post-surgery, the ACL graft is still immature and healing. There is evidence that by 6 months, the graft and the tunnel sites in the tibia and femur where the graft is inserted are healed. With that said, a systematic review in 2019 showed that ACL grafts experience collagen fibril alignment from 6 to 12 months, suggesting that it might take a full year before the ACL graft is fully matured [1]. Returning to play at 9 months could increase the chance of re-injury if the ACL graft is still maturing.
Return to sport
Return to sport (RTS) is likely one of the more heavily researched topics. Success stories such as Adrian Peterson returning to the NFL in less than 9 months after his ACLR are what support the narrative that these injuries are 9-month setbacks. A recent study by Beischer PT PHD et al. found that athletes who returned to sport 9 months or sooner were 7 times more likely to re-injure themselves than those who waited [2]. Additionally, research from Grindem and his colleagues reported a 50% decrease in risk to any knee injury (not ACL specific) for each month that the RTS was delayed beyond 6 months. Should the season start on time, the Seahawks’ first game would be on September 13th, 2020. This would be cutting close to that 9-month timeline. This time frame is critical, especially considering that waiting 2-3 additional months significantly reduces risk of re-injury.
Follow The Money
Keeping all of the medical information in mind, it also helps to see what the team is doing when trying to predict when a player will return to the field. Many, myself included, did not expect Seattle to do much with Chris Carson already on the roster. The Seahawks invested a fifth round pick in rookie Deejay Dallas from Miami, most likely a depth piece. Then in late May, the Seahawks added free agent running back Carlos Hyde. In my opinion, this is the most likely indicator that Penny would not be ready to start the 2020 season.
The team whose doctors have access to Penny’s medical information and an up-close look to how he is progressing in his rehabilitation elected to add another veteran running back. If that doesn’t indicate Penny is likely to start the season on the PUP list, then I don’t know what does. Seattle’s physicians are well aware of everything I listed above in regards to ACLR recovery times and injuries risks. At this point they want to protect their first round running back asset and make sure they are putting him in a good position to succeed. Extending his recovery another 2 months (a total of 11 months post-op) to make sure he is ready to return to football might be the best thing to do.
2020 and Beyond
So what should you do with Penny in 2020? In dynasty leagues he’s a hold for me. At this point, you’re only going to get pennies on the dollar (pun intended) in a trade. I am not worried about Penny long term, so if you could acquire him for a discount, I would. Chris Carson is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent in 2021, and depending on how the season plays out, Penny could be slated as the starter without any competition in the backfield. Clearly, Seattle values Penny, and they are going to put him in the best situation to succeed.
In redraft leagues, I am not drafting Penny unless benches are deep. Even if Penny doesn’t start the season on the PUP, (and instead only misses the first few weeks of the season) it’s going to take some time for him to adjust. Following ACLRs, hamstrings are commonly neglected and as a result weaker [3]. This provides some insight on why hamstring strains are so common the year after ACLRs and can make the following seasons a bust for fantasy football purposes.
I will, however, be keeping a close eye on Penny should he find himself on the waiver wire in any of my leagues. With his versatility as a pass catcher and speed as a runner in a good offense such as Seattle, Penny certainly has league-winning upside. Not to mention, Carson has never been the epitome of health during his time in the NFL. It might take some time before Penny gets to that point, and it’s difficult to carry a player who isn’t producing on your fantasy roster, which is why I’m advocating for the “wait and see” approach.
Summary
Given all the circumstances, I believe it’s possible for Penny to recover from his ACL injury in 9 months. An expanded timeline for all players can be beneficial and decrease the likelihood of re-injury. The study I referenced above by Beischer [2] found the average RTS for athletes who did not suffer an injury following ACLR was 11 months. This data falls in line with optimal ACL graft healing times. For those reasons, it should not be viewed as a negative if Penny starts the season on the PUP. It will ensure that Seattle is allowing for more healing time to make sure that Penny’s in peak shape for a return to football. In fact, it would also be in Seattle’s best interest not to rush Penny back, since Chris Carson is set to be a free agent next season. To properly evaluate Penny and make decisions for the future, you should see what he can do when healthy and see if he is reliable once he returns.
For More information regarding Rashaad Penny or any of the Seattle Seahawks offensive pieces, check out another article on our site called “Seattle Seahawks Offseason Breakdown” by Vivek Iyer.
References:
[1]Panos, J., Webster, K., & Hewett, T. (2020, July). Anterior cruciate ligament grafts display differential maturation patterns on magnetic resonance imaging following reconstruction: A systematic review. Retrieved July 30, 2020, from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31520146
[2] Beischer, S., Gustavsson, L., Senorski, E., Karlsson, J., Thomeé, C., Samuelsson, K., & Thomeé, R. (2020, February). Young Athletes Who Return to Sport Before 9 Months After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction Have a Rate of New Injury 7 Times That of Those Who Delay Return. Retrieved July 30, 2020, from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32005095
[3] Beischer, S., Gustavsson, L., Senorski, E., Karlsson, J., Thomeé, C., Samuelsson, K., & Thomeé, R. (2020, February). Young Athletes Who Return to Sport Before 9 Months After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction Have a Rate of New Injury 7 Times That of Those Who Delay Return. Retrieved July 30, 2020, from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32005095
