While the Seattle Seahawks kept several key stars, they added new starters at wide receiver and tight end, filling the rest of their roster with depth through free agency and the draft. The Seahawks signed Greg Olsen to a one-year, $7 million contract. Additionally, they added Philip Dorsett to fill their #3 WR spot, signing him to a one-year deal worth nearly $1.05 million. In the draft, the Seahawks added linebacker Jordyn Brooks in the first round, selecting defensive players with 3 of their 8 picks. In the fourth round, Seattle picked Colby Parkinson (TE) and Deejay Dallas (RB), following that up with Freddie Swain (WR) in the sixth and Stephen Sullivan (TE, although previously a WR) in the seventh. They bolstered their offensive line by selecting Damien Lewis (G) out of LSU, however this unit still projects to be near the bottom of the league, ranking 28th for the 2020 season by PFF. All of these changes have sizable fantasy football impacts for 2020 and beyond, so let’s dig deeper in this Seattle Seahawks Offseason Breakdown.
Offense: A Breakdown
The Seattle Seahawks’ offensive philosophy should not drastically change from last season, as they retained Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson, and their 6 coordinators. Seattle was #3 in the league in rush attempts per game last year, trailing only the Ravens and 49ers. This translates to low pass attempts, and although Wilson threw more than his career average last season, the team still finished 24th in the league in this area. With all the injuries to Seattle’s running back corps, more pass attempts could open up, boding well for Wilson and his pass catchers. Regardless, don’t expect this offense to be leading the league in passing, despite Wilson’s talent.
Quarterback
Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson is one of the most frustrating quarterbacks to own in fantasy football. He is easily a top-3 NFL quarterback, a future Hall of Famer, and has the dual threat capabilities that we covet in fantasy football. Unfortunately, Pete Carroll refuses to fully unleash Wilson, as his career pass attempts per game average is only 29.5. This would rank 4th worst in the league last year compared to team stats, and although his pass attempts are improving over time, they still don’t equate to what his talent would demand. This leads to consistency issues, (especially in 4-point passing TD leagues) as one of Russell’s strengths is his touchdown percentage. Still, Wilson has finished as a QB 1 every single year of his career, with 4 top-three finishes in 8 years, including his QB3 finish last season. Although his rushing attempts have gradually come down as his career has progressed, he still has averaged over 434 rushing yards/season over the last three years, providing a solid weekly floor. With the plethora of injuries at running back, there is a case to be made for Wilson to receive more pass attempts, which would greatly help his consistency and end of season stats. Wilson projects as a mid-tier QB1 in redraft leagues with proven upside and week-to-week consistency issues. In dynasty, Wilson is a solid QB1 as well due to his talent and job security.
Running Back
Chris Carson
Chris Carson was a solid fantasy asset last year, finishing as the RB12 in PPR leagues. Carson led the Seattle backfield with 278 carries and 37 receptions, and was only really disappointing in Week 16, when he suffered a hip injury. This injury didn’t require offseason surgery, and Carson is expected to be ready for the regular season. Carson was plagued with fumbling issues last season, fumbling 7 times and losing 4. This led to mid-season concerns of an incoming timeshare, which were fulfilled in week 12 and 13 before backup running back Rashaad Penny’s injury (Carson still totaled 31 carries in that span, however Penny had 29). Coming into this year, Hyde and Penny might steal some touches from him, but Carson is still the lead back in Seattle barring further fumbling issues. He should be valued as a mid/low-end RB2 depending on his health in redraft leagues. With only one year left on his current deal and his ball security issues, Carson’s value in dynasty leagues should be downgraded to that of a high-end RB3.
Chris Carson 👀 2019
15 games:
Carries: 278 (5th)
Yds: 1,231 (5th)
RZ touches: 43 (13th)
Big Runs: 13 (3rd)
Evaded tackles: 85 (6th)
Yds created: 526 (4th)#SEA avg 29.5 rush att/g (3rd)
Currently going 55 overall in SF Dynasty drafts. (RB19)
pic.twitter.com/4omG9VgHiZ— D Brown (@DBrownFF88) March 14, 2020
Chris Carson is currently going as the RB 24 according to superflex dynasty adp on cantcutlist.com.
Rashaad Penny
Rashaad Penny has been a bust so far in his two year career. Penny reportedly entered training camp in his rookie season out of shape, opening the door for Carson to take the lead role. Last year, due to Carson’s fumbling issues, Penny split the backfield in Weeks 12 and 13, totaling 29 carries and 4 receptions for 236 yards and 3 touchdowns. In Week 14 however, Penny suffered a torn ACL against the Rams, ending his promising two-week stretch and his season.
In an offseason interview, Pete Carroll hinted that Penny could start the season on the NFL PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) List. The Reserve PUP list prohibits players from playing for six weeks, however allows teams to apply roster exemptions. Another possibility is being chosen for the active roster, in which case he would count against the 53 man roster limit. A third option is starting on IR, however this is unlikely as it would signify the end of his season (unless he is on the Week 1 active roster and then transfers to IR, in which case the team could select him as one of two players to return after 8 weeks. With all of this in mind, Penny will likely not be valuable for redraft leagues (at least early on) if he starts out on the PUP or the IR. All that said, it’s worth watching his injury recovery closely. If COVID-19 pushes back the season’s start date, there’s a possibility that Penny will be able to contribute right away, and thus could have significant redraft value. With the signing of Carlos Hyde, it’s clear that the team is wary of Penny’s injuries, and he would be part of a three-way timeshare in the beginning of the season.
Penny has first round draft equity, and has shown bursts of talent when given opportunity. He is still intriguing in dynasty leagues, as it remains to be seen whether the Seahawks will exercise his fifth-year option and if Carson will be resigned.
Carlos Hyde
Carlos Hyde was signed this offseason to a one-year contract in order to shore up Seattle’s injury riddled backfield. With Rashaad Penny rumored to start the season on the PUP list and Carson recovering from a hip injury, Hyde has the opportunity to (at least) split the backfield until Penny returns. If Carson is back by the time the season returns, Hyde won’t be fantasy relevant barring a subsequent injury, however if Carson’s recovery takes longer than expected, Hyde will likely take the majority of first and second down work, including red zone touches. That would make him a solid RB3 with touchdown upside. It’s also worth monitoring the progression of Deejay Dallas during the offseason, as he could steal some rushing and receiving work. Hyde is a short-term asset in dynasty leagues, but could provide redraft value as the season nears.
Deejay Dallas
Deejay Dallas was drafted in the fourth round this year out of Miami and will step into a depth role for the Seahawks. Dallas is 5’10”, 217 pounds, and his strengths include running through contact and versatility. Dallas consistently fights through contact with impressive lower-body strength, enabling him to gain extra yardage. Despite a lack of extensive receiving production in college, Dallas was a wide receiver in high school, and could contribute in a pass-catching role in the NFL. Additionally, he has experience as a returner, which will help him compete for a roster spot with the Seahawks. Due to his draft equity, Dallas projects to beat out Travis Homer for the fourth string spot on the depth chart, and this could improve due to Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson’s injuries and the contract uncertainty of the running backs ahead of him on the roster. Dallas is not important for redraft leagues, however is an intriguing late-round target in rookie drafts given Seattle’s running back situation.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Lockett
Tyler Lockett is one of the most underappreciated NFL wide receivers. While D.K. Metcalf has the physical traits to become a superstar, Lockett has proven to be a consistent #1 WR for Russell Wilson. Wilson’s QB rating when targeting Lockett last year was 124.7, ranking fifth in the league. This was nearly 20 points above Wilson’s 106.4 passer rating last season, proving that Wilson was better when targeting Lockett compared to the rest of his wide receivers. This was on 82 receptions, which ranked 14th in the league, so this isn’t due to a small sample size. Wilson’s QB rating was a perfect 158.3 (#1 in the league) when targeting Lockett in 2018. Since 2002, the highest target total by a receiver with a perfect passing rating when targeted was 15 targets. Lockett holds the highest wide receiver DVOA since 1986 for his 2018 performance, proving how effective he can be in this offense. Lockett receives valuable targets, ranking 1st and 17th in 2018 and 2019 in yards per target (his 13.79 y/t in 2018 ranks #1 from 1920 to 2018 per Pro Football Reference). Additionally, Lockett ranked 2nd in red zone receptions with 17 in 2019, so even though the passing volume of the offense isn’t high, Lockett still gets the valuable targets that close the gap between himself and other wide receivers with higher target volumes. In my opinion, Lockett and Metcalf will be 1A and 1B options this year, and thus Lockett should be valued as a mid/low-tier WR2 for redraft leagues. In dynasty leagues, he is more of a fringe WR2.
When targeting @TDLockett12 this season, @Seahawks QB @DangeRussWilson posted a perfect passer rating (158.3).
Lockett had 70 targets this year — since 2002, the previous target high among receivers whose QBs had perfect ratings was 15. pic.twitter.com/MUSTOoxhuh
— NFL Football Operations (@NFLFootballOps) December 31, 2018
Tyler Lockett’s 2018 season was historically great in terms of passer rating when targeted.
D.K. Metcalf
D.K. Metcalf was my number one rookie wide receiver post-NFL draft due to his landing spot, quarterback, and incredible athleticism, and last year he definitely showed why. With 99th percentile speed, 97th percentile burst, and a 6’3”, 228 pound frame, Metcalf is an absolute mismatch on the perimeter. He outperformed expectations last year, garnering 100 targets for 900 yards and 7 touchdowns. With an average of 15.5 yards per reception and 4.33 40-yard dash speed, Metcalf is a deep threat who demonstrated more versatility in his route running than he showed in college, showing promising growth for a rookie. Metcalf should be treated as a high-end WR3 in redraft leagues with upside, and in dynasty the sky’s the limit given his athletic profile. He is a solid WR2 there with legitimate WR1 upside in the future.
Philip Dorsett II
Philip Dorsett’s one-year deal with the Seahawks makes him their #3 WR. Dorsett is a deep-field burner with elite speed and agility, demonstrated by his 99th percentile 40-yard dash speed and his 14.7 yard average depth of target in 2019. Despite his physical gifts, Dorsett has been relatively unimpressive compared to his first round draft capital so far in his career. Dorsett is irrelevant for most redraft leagues given the Seahawks’ run-first play calling, and doesn’t have a clear route to improved production for dynasty leagues. He is nothing more than a depth piece in that format.
Freddie Swain
Freddie Swain was drafted in the 6th round this year out of Florida, and while he won’t be an immediate starter, he could compete for slot snaps in the future. He has potential to grow into a kick/punt returner, and can use his speed and burst to be electric on special teams. He is not relevant for redraft leagues, nor most dynasty leagues, given Seattle’s low passing volume and their existing weapons.
Tight End
Greg Olsen
Greg Olsen was signed this offseason to a one-year deal, and will compete for the starting job in Seattle. Olsen has had a storied career, however injuries have plagued him as of late, and it remains to be seen how large of an impact he can make in his 14th season. With Will Dissly recovering from a torn achilles, Olsen seems to be in line to make a sizable impact on this offense. Still, he does not need to be rostered in standard redraft leagues, and is a short-term, declining asset in dynasty leagues.
Will Dissly
Will Dissly has been plagued with injuries in his first two seasons, playing in only 10 games over that span. His rookie season ended due to a ruptured right patellar tendon, and his sophomore season was cut short due to a torn left achilles. In his five full games last year, Dissly was the TE 5 in PPR leagues, averaging 14.8 points per game. Dissly has been productive in his short career, averaging 4.6 receptions per game and 0.8 touchdowns per game, and thus is still intriguing for dynasty purposes. Unfortunately, due to the other options at tight end in Seattle, he does not need to be drafted in most redraft leagues. Keep an eye on him as the season progresses.
Jacob Hollister
Jacob Hollister proved to be a streamable tight end asset last year due to injuries to Ed Dickson and Will Dissly, finishing as the TE12 in PPR leagues from Week 7 to Week 17 (after Dissly suffered a torn Achilles). Despite this production, Hollister is the third tight end option in this Seattle offense, and thus has limited fantasy value. He is not on the redraft radar, however could have sneaky dynasty value in leagues with very deep rosters given the age of Greg Olsen and the injury concerns surrounding Will Dissly.
Colby Parkinson
Former Stanford TE Colby Parkinson was the Seahawks’ 4th round selection in the 2020 NFL Draft, and will likely serve as a depth piece in this offense. Parkinson recently suffered a foot fracture in practice, and will be out for the foreseeable future. With all of the tight ends ahead of him on the depth chart, Parkinson has no short term value and does not need to be rostered in most dynasty leagues.
Final Thoughts
While the Seahawks didn’t make massive personnel changes this offseason, there are still plenty of fantasy ramifications. With the additions they made through free agency to their tight end and wide receiver corps, Wilson will have some new weapons to throw to. Overall, the Seahawks added more depth, which is especially important for this season due to COVID-19.
Follow Vivek Iyer on Twitter for more offseason breakdowns and fantasy football content! If you would like to read more offseason team breakdowns, there are many more published on cantcutlist.com, including the entirety of the NFC South. Thank you for reading!
