Building an Unstoppable Fantasy Team
Part 1: Introducing The Undroppables Risk Score
By: Joshua Lee, Head of Analytics at the Undroppables
Building an unstoppable fantasy team is simple in theory: draft good players that score fantasy points and don’t draft bad players that won’t score fantasy points. Every single fantasy football player faces the same problem. It’s hard to choose between players that the experts and the consensus consider good fantasy players.
- Should I draft Christian McCaffrey or Jonathon Taylor with my first pick?
- Should I draft Tee Higgins or AJ Brown in the second round?
- Who should I draft in the late rounds?
These are tough questions, and even the best fantasy football players in the world struggle to agree on an answer. So, we at the Undroppables have come up with a way that can help you decide between players in your drafts. So without further ado, I introduce to you… the Undroppables Risk Score.
The Undroppables Risk Score is the probability that a player will bust at their current draft position. For example, Saquon Barkley has an Undroppables Risk Score of 54%, which means that Saquon has a 54% chance of not scoring the same amount of fantasy points as the other players drafted around him (aka he busts). So we can use the URS (short for Undroppables Risk Score) index to identify which players to avoid in our drafts as well as which players to target in each round.
Please find below the Undroppables Risk Scores for your 2022 fantasy football drafts, and the URS methodology can be found at the end of the article.
Undroppables Risk Score Index
ADP data from Sleeper PPR 1-QB Format Leagues
URS: Undroppables Risk Score (% chance player busts at ADP)
| Sleeper ADP | Name | URS |
| 1 | Jonathan Taylor | 0.10% |
| 2 | Christian McCaffrey | 4.94% |
| 3 | Derrick Henry | 0.32% |
| 4 | Austin Ekeler | 0.05% |
| 5 | Cooper Kupp | 0.02% |
| 6 | Justin Jefferson | 0.31% |
| 7 | Dalvin Cook | 9.29% |
| 8 | Najee Harris | 3.88% |
| 9 | Ja’Marr Chase | 12.46% |
| 10 | Joe Mixon | 1.24% |
| 11 | Davante Adams | 0.05% |
| 12 | Stefon Diggs | 1.79% |
| 13 | Travis Kelce | 0.21% |
| 14 | D’Andre Swift | 4.91% |
| 15 | Nick Chubb | 4.11% |
| 16 | CeeDee Lamb | 28.92% |
| 17 | Alvin Kamara | 0.30% |
| 18 | Aaron Jones | 10.89% |
| 19 | Tyreek Hill | 0.41% |
| 20 | Deebo Samuel | 0.72% |
| 21 | Saquon Barkley | 53.99% |
| 23 | Mark Andrews | 0.50% |
| 24 | Javonte Williams | 32.08% |
| 25 | Leonard Fournette | 26.55% |
| 26 | Mike Evans | 6.74% |
| 27 | Keenan Allen | 9.92% |
| 28 | A.J. Brown | 13.40% |
| 29 | Ezekiel Elliott | 46.34% |
| 30 | Kyle Pitts | 59.14% |
| 32 | James Conner | 23.78% |
| 33 | Tee Higgins | 1.85% |
| 35 | Cam Akers | 86.16% |
| 36 | George Kittle | 40.95% |
| 37 | Michael Pittman | 42.00% |
| 38 | Terry McLaurin | 60.97% |
| 39 | David Montgomery | 3.06% |
| 40 | Darren Waller | 44.45% |
| 41 | Diontae Johnson | 18.73% |
| 42 | Travis Etienne | 45.24% |
| 43 | Jaylen Waddle | 10.24% |
| 44 | Breece Hall | 48.62% |
| 45 | D.J. Moore | 17.29% |
| 47 | D.K. Metcalf | 11.75% |
| 48 | Josh Jacobs | 6.59% |
| 49 | Jerry Jeudy | 59.71% |
| 50 | Courtland Sutton | 67.25% |
| 51 | Antonio Gibson | 39.44% |
| 52 | Mike Williams | 6.29% |
| 54 | J.K. Dobbins | 76.61% |
| 55 | Elijah Mitchell | 15.41% |
| 56 | Dalton Schultz | 73.31% |
| 58 | Amari Cooper | 49.63% |
| 59 | Allen Robinson | 74.01% |
| 60 | Marquise Brown | 55.79% |
| 61 | T.J. Hockenson | 70.57% |
| 62 | Brandin Cooks | 36.66% |
| 63 | Chris Godwin | 2.25% |
| 64 | Michael Thomas | 46.78% |
| 65 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 73.32% |
| 67 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 40.14% |
| 68 | A.J. Dillon | 80.16% |
| 69 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 81.57% |
| 70 | Adam Thielen | 22.12% |
| 71 | Darnell Mooney | 49.22% |
| 72 | Miles Sanders | 92.45% |
| 74 | Dallas Goedert | 78.85% |
| 75 | Damien Harris | 61.59% |
| 76 | Rashod Bateman | 74.89% |
| 77 | DeAndre Hopkins | 39.69% |
| 79 | Kareem Hunt | 75.38% |
| 81 | Kenneth Walker | 58.69% |
| 82 | Drake London | 56.25% |
| 83 | Cordarrelle Patterson | 46.11% |
| 84 | Zach Ertz | 86.91% |
| 85 | Tony Pollard | 71.60% |
| 86 | Hunter Renfrow | 17.81% |
| 87 | Devonta Smith | 55.34% |
| 89 | Dawson Knox | 87.87% |
| 90 | Elijah Moore | 48.15% |
| 91 | Devin Singletary | 58.36% |
| 93 | Rashaad Penny | 62.74% |
| 94 | Chase Edmonds | 49.28% |
| 95 | Brandon Aiyuk | 59.05% |
| 96 | Treylon Burks | 20.83% |
| 97 | Tyler Lockett | 14.95% |
| 98 | Allen Lazard | 65.91% |
| 100 | James Cook | 56.11% |
| 101 | Chris Olave | 29.66% |
| 103 | Pat Freiermuth | 84.19% |
| 104 | Melvin Gordon | 84.59% |
| 105 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 73.50% |
| 106 | Robert Woods | 7.00% |
| 107 | Christian Kirk | 27.42% |
| 108 | Garrett Wilson | 18.99% |
| 109 | Mike Gesicki | 84.87% |
| 110 | Chase Claypool | 86.26% |
| 111 | Dameon Pierce | 67.11% |
| 113 | Kadarius Toney | 58.69% |
| 114 | Skyy Moore | 57.82% |
| 115 | Michael Carter | 73.73% |
| 116 | Cole Kmet | 76.10% |
| 117 | James Robinson | 20.00% |
| 118 | George Pickens | 37.10% |
| 119 | Tyler Boyd | 65.13% |
| 120 | Alexander Mattison | 89.02% |
| 121 | Albert Okwuegbunam | 85.73% |
| 134 | Julio Jones | 52.37% |
| 137 | Russell Gage | 59.12% |
| 139 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 66.98% |
| 140 | Nyheim Hines | 62.71% |
| 142 | Isaiah Spiller | 65.40% |
| 143 | Hunter Henry | 69.06% |
| 144 | Jarvis Landry | 80.34% |
| 145 | Darrell Henderson | 48.56% |
| 147 | Christian Watson | 52.47% |
| 148 | Tyler Higbee | 75.64% |
| 149 | Michael Gallup | 80.08% |
| 150 | Rondale Moore | 80.36% |
| 151 | Rachaad White | 58.74% |
| 153 | Irv Smith | 74.02% |
| 160 | Brian Robinson | 57.21% |
| 161 | Kenneth Gainwell | 73.00% |
| 162 | DeVante Parker | 57.40% |
| 163 | Tyler Allgeier | 64.43% |
| 164 | Jahan Dotson | 17.69% |
| 166 | Jakobi Meyers | 41.60% |
| 167 | Jameson Williams | 29.17% |
| 169 | David Njoku | 69.22% |
| 170 | Jalen Tolbert | 39.60% |
| 171 | Kenny Golladay | 77.72% |
| 172 | Marlon Mack | 78.90% |
| 173 | J.D. McKissic | 53.21% |
| 175 | Noah Fant | 54.06% |
| 176 | Mark Ingram | 70.83% |
| 177 | D.J. Chark | 43.12% |
| 179 | Khalil Herbert | 89.99% |
| 180 | Isiah Pacheco | 73.37% |
| 181 | Romeo Doubs | 80.63% |
| 186 | Jamaal Williams | 60.94% |
| 188 | Mecole Hardman | 80.00% |
| 190 | Gerald Everett | 60.37% |
| 191 | Sammy Watkins | 72.50% |
| 192 | Raheem Mostert | 59.47% |
| 193 | Chuba Hubbard | 90.23% |
| 194 | Robert Tonyan | 67.81% |
| 195 | Nico Collins | 35.29% |
| 197 | Alec Pierce | 36.37% |
| 198 | K.J. Osborn | 45.45% |
| 199 | Zamir White | 66.31% |
| 200 | Hayden Hurst | 61.98% |
| 201 | Austin Hooper | 66.01% |
| 202 | Tyrion Davis-Price | 63.91% |
| 203 | Darrel Williams | 63.41% |
| 204 | Van Jefferson | 52.68% |
| 205 | Gus Edwards | 72.52% |
| 209 | Isaiah McKenzie | 60.02% |
| 211 | Wan’Dale Robinson | 16.86% |
| 213 | Josh Palmer | 39.07% |
| 215 | Evan Engram | 44.19% |
| 216 | K.J. Hamler | 68.86% |
| 218 | Robby Anderson | 39.69% |
| 219 | D’Onta Foreman | 81.96% |
| 221 | Cameron Brate | 80.42% |
| 222 | A.J. Green | 38.71% |
| 223 | Parris Campbell | 71.64% |
| 225 | Jamison Crowder | 66.09% |
| 228 | Marvin Jones | 24.50% |
| 230 | Kendrick Bourne | 76.16% |
| 231 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | 71.05% |
| 232 | Curtis Samuel | 56.38% |
| 234 | David Bell | 45.63% |
| 235 | Sony Michel | 80.67% |
| 236 | Devin Duvernay | 62.16% |
| 237 | Brevin Jordan | 52.12% |
| 240 | Corey Davis | 30.42% |
| 242 | Kyle Rudolph | 61.33% |
| 245 | Chris Evans | 67.91% |
| 247 | Dontrell Hilliard | 62.86% |
| 250 | Velus Jones | 17.45% |
| 250 | Greg Dulcich | 30.62% |
| 250 | Byron Pringle | 53.34% |
| 250 | Pharaoh Brown | 58.22% |
| 250 | Jeff Wilson | 58.47% |
| 250 | Chris Conley | 58.96% |
| 250 | Kyle Philips | 50.67% |
| 250 | Rashard Higgins | 61.88% |
| 250 | Dan Arnold | 62.45% |
| 250 | Daniel Bellinger | 42.45% |
| 250 | James Proche | 63.60% |
| 250 | Jonnu Smith | 64.91% |
| 250 | Nelson Agholor | 52.15% |
| 250 | Samaje Perine | 65.34% |
| 250 | Phillip Dorsett | 65.43% |
| 250 | Ashton Dulin | 65.43% |
| 250 | Braxton Berrios | 66.22% |
| 250 | Tommy Tremble | 68.09% |
| 250 | Matt Breida | 70.74% |
| 250 | Ty Montgomery | 72.37% |
| 250 | Tutu Atwell | 72.62% |
| 250 | Noah Brown | 73.17% |
| 250 | Marquez Callaway | 73.54% |
| 250 | Trestan Ebner | 63.62% |
| 250 | Harrison Bryant | 74.20% |
| 250 | Mack Hollins | 74.32% |
| 250 | Kylen Granson | 75.29% |
| 250 | Collin Johnson | 75.68% |
| 250 | Ameer Abdullah | 75.96% |
| 250 | Geoff Swaim | 76.19% |
| 250 | Danny Gray | 76.58% |
| 251 | Zay Jones | 59.83% |
| 252 | Randall Cobb | 42.43% |
| 256 | Tyler Conklin | 60.90% |
| 257 | Boston Scott | 66.19% |
| 263 | C.J. Uzomah | 66.87% |
| 266 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 46.37% |
| 269 | Bryan Edwards | 29.11% |
Methodology
The Undroppables Risk Score = J-Score + Upside Score – ADP Score
J-SCORE
The Undroppables Analytics team built an XGBoost Logistic Classifier model to predict the probability that NFL players score fantasy points. We defined two tier classes:
- Dawg=>15 PPR points per game
- Not a Dawg <= 15 PPR points per game.
We used data from PlayerProfiler, Pro-Football-Reference, and other source materials which included medicals, college production, draft capital, fantasy football production, actual NFL production, advanced stats, next Gen stats, AWS stats, and my local corner store’s drunk guy’s stats. Our dataset possessed hundreds of variables from thousands of NFL players to identify the most predictive stats in terms of next season’s fantasy points. The team was absolutely and utterly shocked by the most important variable. Fantasy points. The model does not care at all about the advanced analytics which means you shouldn’t either. The only thing that matters is previous fantasy production.
Upside Score
The Undroppables Analytics team used Chalk’s projections (as of 08-24-22) to determine each player’s upside score.
ADP Score
The Undroppables Analytics team used Sleeper’s ADP (as of 08-27-22) to determine each player’s ADP score.
Interested in joining the Undroppables Analytics team? DM me @joshuajaehyun on twitter or email me at joshualee007@gmail.com!
