Welcome back, class. In our last meeting, we discussed some players to move off of and the paths to do so. I laid out ten players to trade away and explained we would look to move off of some productive players who may not make the Dynasty transition fruitful. This week, we’re getting ready for DRAFT SZN! Whether you’re in a startup and creating your team from scratch or established leagues and supplementing your roster with incoming freshmen and unowned potential prospects, let’s walk through the process to set you up for future success.
Disclaimer: This draft guide is NOT for NCAA-only leagues. We focus on players transitioning to Dynasty in your C2C leagues.
Startup Strategy
Asset Hoarding
As in NFL Dynasty leagues, we are thinking of our Devy assets regarding current and future market value. Some players out there focus on winning the Devy “points battle”, but I would gladly tank the Campus side if it means accruing trade and production assets on the NFL side.
2. Positional Targeting
Success in Dynasty for a player will vary by position and how they were recruited. We can easily group and assign value to players based on their position groups, recruiting rankings, and NFL hit rates. Let’s break them down:
QB – At the QB position, 5-Star recruits will hit in the NFL about 25% of the time. That falls to about 10% for the 4-Star recruits and an abysmal 1.2% for 3-Star.
RB – 5-Star RBs hit about 44%, 4-Star at 13.2%, and the 3-Star at 2.3%.
WR – The hit rates for 5, 4, and 3-Star WR recruits are about 43, 10, and 1.6%, respectively.
So, what does all of that mean? Quarterbacks retain dynasty draft capital value even if they haven’t been successful in the NFL yet, so while there are fewer players at the position that will do you much good, they will keep their value. Draft QBs with the idea of acquiring tradeable assets to strengthen your team. Those 5-Star kids will go early. Once those QBs are gone, we take all the 4 and 5-Star RBs and WRs we can handle. When those three pools are dry, it’s back to 4-Star QB, if any are left. If you missed out, don’t sweat it.
At the back end of drafts, we’re looking for players like the ones on our TARGETS list (no, NOT Trey Holley anymore). This is also where we are going to draft TE. Rank your TE targets however you would like. I start with my first group, “Guys at Iowa,” and arrange from there. Look for guys at the position in the top 4 on their Power 5 team in targets as a sophomore.
3. Trading Draft Picks
There is absolutely nothing wrong with trading back in startups. After Round 10 or so, if you can make 2-for-1 or better trades, go for it. You can load up on Freshmen from established schools to take advantage of recruiting history, like the aforementioned Iowa tight ends, Ohio State wide receivers, or Alabama running backs. I like QBs from Iowa State for some reason, and LSU, USC, and Texas will usually funnel prospects into the NFL.
4. Always Prepare
Just like in all NFL leagues, draft prep is super important. Stack your players in tiers. Place players in tiers based on what we mentioned before, position group, recruiting grade, and school, but also use market share, breakout age, and depth chart position. Have your draft sheet and stay flexible. I believe the great Mike Tyson said, “Everyone has a plan until they get sniped in a draft and panic.” If you’re prepared, you won’t panic.
Established Leagues
Hopefully, you remember all of the things I just said. If you don’t, go back and read it all again. The draft process in established leagues is exactly the same as in startups, only with a smaller player pool. In established leagues, the focus does shift in three main areas:
- Depth Chart Position
- Market Share
- Recruiting Rank
See? It’s the same, but it’s different. We want to capitalize on name recognition and recency bias. For example, you’re on the clock, and you have a need at running back. As a movable asset, the RB that has a name everybody knows, that just rushed for 600 yards as a sophomore, on a Power 5 team that is losing their starter to the NFL, BUT was only a 3-star recruit has more trade value than an incoming Freshman who is a 4-star recruit. That Frosh may be the next Saquon Barkley in three years, but the Junior 3-star you draft who ascends to the NFL can get you that prospect plus a future draft pick in a post-season trade before that Frosh has started a game in college. We’re talking assets here, people!
So, that is your basic strategy. Go forth, make your Cheat Sheets, and load up on those assets. Next time, we’ll refine some of our targeting by looking at how offensive scheme affects Devy value.
