Welcome back, class. In our last meeting, we discussed some players who are lesser known or have lesser roles likely to help your Devy/C2C fantasy teams in the future. I laid out ten players to target in trades and explained we would look to move off of some productive players who may not make the Dynasty transition fruitful. I will call this “trading away points,” but I understand if that makes you uncomfortable. If you’d like to refer to this series as “Risers and Fallers,” you may. This is the “Fallers” Edition.
Discomfort is real, and you should be free to feel your feelings. That’s one reason I mention it. Your emotional brain may protest that moving off production instead of the unknown is not a good idea. “Why am I selling Player A when he helped me last year for Player X, who DOESN’T EVEN HAVE A JOB?” – You are yelling at me through your screen.
In fantasy, however, and especially in Devy and Dynasty, the key is looking at your players as assets with a particular value and taking advantage of that value as opposed to looking at their counting stats or their fantasy points scored. We’re not recording a historical record; we’re predicting the future.
As in Dynasty, selling too early and selling “high” are advantageous compared to selling a player too late or at their lowest value. The other side of that coin is acquiring players when their value is the most affordable. How often have you tried to trade a player who stopped producing for a player on the cusp of a breakout? It’s frustrating in Dynasty, but you can do it before the NFL transition in Devy.
So, here are ten guys that have looked great so far in college, but I don’t see them having productive NFL careers. Guys, that would be perfect to move for something good with one or more of our targets mixed into the trade.
1. KJ Jefferson – QB – UCF
I had such high hopes for Jefferson. As a Sophomore starter in the SEC in 2021, Jefferson threw for 2,668 yards and 21 TDs while only tossing 4 INTs. He also rushed for 664 yards that season to go along with six rushing touchdowns. KJ showed both the rushing and passing upside that Dynasty dreams are made of in a frame that was 6’3″ and 245 pounds. He made Treylon Burks a 1st Rounder. Over the next two seasons, he didn’t see much, if any, improvement. Following the 2023 season, Jefferson chose not to enter the NFL Draft but to transfer to a new school as a 6th year Senior. After a breakout season as a 20-year-old, Jefferson will presumably join the 2025 Draft, erasing what potentially could have been an elite draft profile. Jefferson does offer plenty of scoring upside, having posted a season of 30.4 fantasy points per game (FPPG) and facing lesser-than-SEC competition may mean he exceeds that number, but the idea he will be anything more than a backup in the NFL has disappeared, along with my enthusiasm.
Path Forward
Find a trade partner focused more on the scoring in the NCAA than future Dynasty prospects. Send offers to everyone that is losing their QB1 to the NFL.
2. Deamonte Trayanum – RB – Kentucky
Deamonte “Chip” Trayanum will be a 5th year Senior in 2024. He has been known in Devy circles for a while, reaching his value peak as the prospective usurper of the Ohio State backfield after transferring from Arizona State. A funny thing happened on the way to stardom, though…Trayanum was never the best running back at OSU. For the 2024 season, he has entered the transfer portal twice and headed south to Kentucky. Trayanum is a large man; he’s about 240 pounds, and unlike other bigger backs, like Braelon Allen, he’s not fast. His 4.7+ 40 time is more fit for TE or pocket QB.
Path Forward
Trayanum’s value sits in the 6th round range in startups, which should be a good initial target. Talk up his transfer, offer him a 5th or 6th round pick and a player from the Targets List.
3. Preston Stone – QB – SMU
Stone is a redshirt Junior who earned his starting job last season and impressed with a 161.3 Pass Efficiency Rating and a 4:1 TD/INT ratio. He looks to have a productive season in a wide-open offense that has recently produced some notable WRs to the NFL. Courtland Sutton and Rashee Rice are the best of those. If you have Stone, he’ll likely improve upon last season’s 25 FPPG, which is nice. Stone’s limitations in fantasy will appear stark in the next couple of seasons: he’s small and doesn’t run. Translation: he is a pocket QB and has no additional upside. Sell.
Path Forward
Stone’s value in startups stands at the back end of the 5th round, and I’ve seen him ranked as a Top 20 QB. Sell his production as a QB2 and get a pick and Targets.
4. Tory Horton – WR – Colorado St.
Horton broke out as a Sophomore as the WR2 on a Nevada team led by Romeo Doubs, making Carson Strong a lot of money. Horton transferred to Colorado State and recorded two straight seasons with 8 TDs and 1,100+ receiving yards alongside TEs Trey McBride and Dallin Holker. He enters 2024 as the incumbent WR1, trying to increase his draft value. He’s a GOOD wide receiver, but his 40 time is closer to 5 than 4. He’s also tall and slight. Similar to the theme that seems to pop up with all of these players, he’s a former transfer who won’t check the early-declare box, has a build that won’t check either, and will have a rough transition to the NFL, but he will be productive.
Path Forward
Horton has a 5th-round startup value and is a Top 20 WR. Implement your familiar strategy, and get those picks and Targets.
5. Isaiah Bond – WR – Texas
I’m going out on a limb with this one. We have a Sophomore breakout from Alabama. He has a sub-4.3 40-yard time. And we have a true Junior who will be Quinn Ewers’ favorite target for a National Championship contender. I have seen Bond ranked as the WR4 in college. And I can’t make much of a case for him to be on this list. However, watching tape and reading reports show a different product than the profile. He’s not tall enough to play on the outside right now, he’s not thick enough to be productive in the slot in the NFL, and he’s not a great separator. He’ll beat guys down the field, but he’s more Danny Gray than Jaylen Waddle. And if you don’t know who Danny Gray is, that should be enough.
Path Forward
Bond sits anywhere from an early 2nd round startup pick to a high 4th round. You should be able to get a Target, plus a pick in that range, or a Jaydn Ott or Omarion Hampton.
6. Antwane Wells – WR – Ole Miss
Transfer alert! Antwane “Juice” Wells has decided to take his talents to Oxford. No, he didn’t join the rowing crew in South Carolina! He’s a wide receiver, and Oxford is the Mississippi town that Ole Miss is in. Juice ALMOST hit the 1,000-yard mark as a Junior in his first season at South Cackalacky. He was hurt last season and will be another 5th-year Senior on this list.
Given that his QB at Ole Miss (Spoiler Alert!) is also on this list, he should raise some numbers and draft stock (Common Theme Alert!). He’s got a cool nickname, but he’s older and started at James Madison. Let someone else dream of him.
Path Forward
Wells is solidly a 3rd rounder. Identify position needs and get A) a need or B) a Target.
7. Antonio Williams – WR – Clemson
William eclipsed 600 yards as a Clemson Freshman, but an injury set him back in his Sophomore season. He profiles as a WR2 in the NFL, but that’s if he gets there. He’s a burst guy, explosive in space, and would have made a great RB. His 40-yard time won’t wow anybody, but his first 10-yard time will. But he has a long way to go. Unless he is FULLY recovered next season, he will require a true Senior season, and he still could stay in school for NIL money a year after that.
Path Forward
Williams sits in the same range as Bond and Wells by his name alone, but his 2023 production might scare some folks off. Offer the same trade as you would with Bonds or Wells, and if it’s declined, add one of them, or equivalent, instead.
8. Donovan Edwards – RB – Michigan
Edwards was the backfield-mate of Blake Corum at Michigan for the last few years and will take over as the Defending National Champion RB1 for the Harbaugh-less Wolverine Regime in 2024. He even got nearly 1,000 yards in 2022, while Corum put up over 1,400 yards. Then, in 2023, Edwards disappeared. He played in all 15 games, but his yards per carry tanked from over 7 to 4.2. Granted, Corum’s YPC went down, too, so it may have been an O-Line or a play-calling issue, etc. But as a true Senior in 2024, Edwards is losing the age and breakout checks that put him on the short-list for 2024 NFL prospects after his sophomore season. His 4.5+ 40 time, age, and BMI will set him firmly in the backup RB draft prospect space when he comes out.
Path Forward
Edwards carries late 3rd – early 4th round value. Package accordingly.
9. Jaxson Dart – QB – Ole Miss
Jaxson Dart’s name was on several lips heading to the 2022 season. According to some, Dart transferred to Ole Miss from USC and was poised to EXPLODE. He did have a good season but missed the mark, figuratively and literally, with his 20 touchdowns and 11 interceptions campaign. While improving in 2023, he more closely fits his values. Dart is not a quarterback who wins with his playmaking ability. He’s a first-read thrower, and while somewhat mobile, he’s smaller and will be limited in the NFL.
Path Forward
With a high 4th-round value, find an underclassman that “hasn’t produced yet,” a Power 5 QB that runs, and get that and a Target.
10. Jalen Milroe – QB – Alabama
Milroe and Dart are almost clones of each other, although Milroe is a little faster. Milroe, like Dart, is v e r y s l o w a t m o v i n g t h r o u g h p r o g r e s s i o n s. Like an unfrozen Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer, complicated coverages confuse and frighten him. And, again, like Dart, Milroe is not elite in the pocket but does better on the run. While the running upside is excellent, I’d prefer an additional pocket game.
Path Forward
See Jaxson Dart.
So, go out and get those Targets. In our next session, we’ll talk about Devy Draft Strategies.
