The Tier Jumpers series takes a look at the fantasy landscape to identify players ready to make the leap into the next positional tier in dynasty rankings. In this installment, the focus is on tight ends. Let’s start by looking at the current state of the position, then identify our Tier Jumpers ⬆️.
Consensus tight end rankings courtesy of our in-house analysts.
Tier 1 – The Elites
The top tier of tight ends is small, occupied by two elite players.
George Kittle is an energy-fueled beast whether he has the ball is in his hands or not. He has earned the reputation of a superb blocker who never needs to leave the field. His 107 targets led his team and were 4th most at the position and his 9.8 yards per target were 3rd amongst tight ends with over 40 targets. San Francisco’s devotion to the run game caps his ceiling, but his floor is rock solid. His complete skillset at 25 years of age cements him atop the list of TEs in dynasty, with some room to grow. ↗️
Travis Kelce set up a permanent residency in the top tier with a 233.5 point season back in 2016. Four seasons and four top finishes later, he continues to dominate. Showing no decline yet and aided by the hottest QB and offense in the game he looks to continue producing at a high level for the next few years. ➡️
Tier 2 – The Studs
Tier 2 is a mix of proven veteran and upcoming young studs.
Zach Ertz has finished in the top four the last three years thanks to his brother-like connection with Carson Wentz. But now Ertz is entering his age 30 season with young and talented Dallas Goedert pushing him for targets. Looking forward, Ertz’s dynasty value should see a gradual decline into Tier 3 over the next couple of seasons. ↘️
Mark Andrews ended his second season in the NFL ranked 4th in points among tight ends. His 98 targets were 5th among TEs, which is staggering considering that he only plays around 50% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps. This is troubling and potentially caps his ceiling as a TE in an innovative run-first offense he should be on the field for at least 80%. Until he improves his run blocking, Andrews isn’t primed for a leap, but at only 23 he has time to improve his game. ↗️
Austin Hooper has become a reliable target for his team over the past few seasons. Unfortunately, Hooper’s situation comes with some uncertainty as Hooper is set to hit free agency in 2020. His landing spot, if a premiere one, could elevate his situation. On the flip side, depending on where Hooper lands, his value and progression into the next tier could be torpedoed. Hooper has shown stretches of high output, averaging 20.1 points per game from Weeks 3-7, which was the 4th highest 5-game split amongst TEs. So for now, he is a “wait and see”. ➡️
Hunter Henry has all of the tools needed to elevate his dynasty value, but has to stay on the field to make it happen. Through four seasons Henry has only started 35 of 64 possible regular season games. A gifted athlete who ran a 4.66 at his Pro Day and an asset in the run game, Henry is an offensive coordinator’s dream. Who that coordinator will be in 2020 is yet to be determined. Along with Hooper and Eric Ebron, Henry will be a free agent in 2020, making it an extremely strong TE group this offseason. Regardless, as things stand now, Henry will likely be a player on the rise in 2020. ➡️
Evan Engram is an elite athlete armed with 4.42 speed and a 36” vertical, striking fear into opposing linebackers and defensive backs. Though not known for his blocking, Engram is still able to find his way on the field, notching nearly 80% of his team’s offensive snaps in 2019. Like Henry, however, Engram isn’t reliable in the health department. The Giants tight end has not played more than 8 games in either of the last two seasons. Entering his fourth year in the league, the former first round pick will be working with his third head coach and offensive system. If he can battle through the hurdles of health and an unstable environment, he has the physical gifts to be a top TE in the league. For now, Engram is a hold, but be prepared to watch his value skyrocket if things go his way in the future with Daniel Jones improving under center. ➡️
Tier 3 – Watch Closely
This is the group with the highest expectations of growth.
T.J. Hockenson was the 8th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, making him the highest drafted tight end since Vernon Davis in 2006. At 6’5” and over 250 pounds, Hock is a stud blocker and acts like an extra offensive lineman on the field. What he lacks in straight-line speed, Hockenson makes up for in burst and ability to separate easily from linebackers. After catching 6 receptions on 9 targets for 131 yards and a TD in Week 1, the fantasy world was ready to claim him the next big thing. Unfortunately, he couldn’t sustain that usage hitting the rookie wall and then ending up on IR. With that said, all signs point towards growth here though and savvy owners should be looking to buy from disappointing ones. Like all players at this scarce position, I expect a big jump from TJ in years two and three. Get him while you can still afford him. ⬆️
Darren Waller was a complete surprise in 2019. Finishing 2nd among tight ends in completions and yards, Waller proved to be Derrick Carr’s weapon of choice. Since 2010, the top 3 yearly TE’s have an average age of just under 29 years old and score around 240 points. Entering his age 28 season, Waller will look to continue the continuity he’s established with Carr. If Waller can improve upon his subpar 2019 total of 3 TDs, he should firmly remain in top 5 at the position. If you are in win-now mode he is a buy. ↗️
Noah Fant is another uber-athlete looking to establish himself in the upper levels of the TE landscape. A monster on the field at 6’4, 250 lbs. with elite speed (4.5/40) and mind-blowing hops (39.5” verical), Fant is a big play waiting to happen. Serving as a willing, if not solid, blocker kept him on the field for up to 86% of plays a game as a rookie and this 22 year old still has tons of room to grow, both physically and as a professional tight end. With Denver developing a young offensive core, lead by gunslinger Drew Lock, Fant is a must-buy for me. ⬆️
Dallas Goedert is a great player and has the potential to produce top 5 results, but is stuck behind Wentz’s favorite Zach Ertz. With Ertz signed in Philly through the 2021 season, it is hard for me to see a clear path to stardom for Goedert in the near future. The Eagles run a lot of two TE sets with 12-personnel, so Goedert still managed 87 targets last year. This gives him decent floor, making him a great low price option in two TE or TE premium leagues, if not in more standard setups. ↗️
Tier 4 – Reason For Hope
These players have disappointed, but give us some reason for hope that a breakout is coming.
Some fantasy owners are still holding out hope for the 19th pick in 2017 Draft, O.J. Howard. A player that possesses the physical tools, but seemingly not the intangible ones, he has found it hard to beat out fellow Buccaneer TE Cameron Brate. Younger players with more upside like Dawson Knox or Will Dissley are smarter targets for your money at this point. ↘️
David Njoku is another 1st round draft pick that enticed fantasy owners with his athletic skillset. Unfortunately, a dysfunctional Browns offense and a wrist injury kept us from reaping the reward of his complete toolset. Njoku can be had for next to nothing right now and could be a smart buy if the price is low, or he could disappear into the pool of averageness. ➡️
Tyler Higbee is a player was mostly slept on by the fantasy community but demanded attention with a blistering finish to the 2019 season. Over the final five games he posted an average of 21.44 points per game, the highest 5 game split by any TE all season. Entering his age 28 season in 2020 with a lot of momentum, Higbee will be a target for owners subject to recency Time will tell if that is a prosperous move or not. I’m buying, but with trepidation. ↗️
Last, but certainly not least is Mike Gesicki. A 2nd round draft pick of the Dolphins in 2018, Mike shows amazing athleticism with a 4.52/40 and a 41.5” (not a misprint!) verticals with a grown mans body (6’6” and 250 lbs). Gesicki had some bright spots in 2019 that left dynasty owners salivating for more. His 76% of offensive stats over the last seven games of 2019 show us he is earning trust though he has to improve on his abysmal 57% catch rate. I’m buying in all formats and expect to see him up a tier by next season. ⬆️
The Jump Off
Tier 1 is a small stable place and Tier 2 is filled with players who are going to need to stay healthy while increasing production to order to make a jump. Tier 3 and, to a lesser extent, Tier 4 are both ripe for movement, loaded with untapped potential. Look before you leap because you don’t want to overpay, but focus your buying efforts here in hopes of maximizing your investment.
