The Unarmed Strike series will be offseason series focused on dynasty and redraft fantasy football offseason strategies that are themed with Dungeon & Dragons storytelling. Follow me @FF_Derekfuchs to see when my latest articles get posted.
Stay Together
An essential rule when playing any tabletop role-playing game (TTRPG) is that you never want to split up the party members from one another if you can prevent it. Given the situation, too many things can go wrong, and someone can get hurt, lost, or even killed. Now, fantasy football isn’t as life or death, but there is a similarity when talking about roster management. Don’t cut the player too soon.
Bust or Project?
As fantasy football managers, we are limited in roster spots. We need to maximize how they are constructed with the right amount of win-now starting lineup, solid backups, and enough room for prospects that can eventually take over those other positions. You are sometimes left to make a tough choice from those roles. Veterans start to decline, or rookies just never pan out as you thought.
The fear is that you decide to pull the trigger with the release too soon and lose out on the value. The double-edged sword is that we tend to hold on too long and ultimately lose value. So, is there a way to decide when the right time is? If you can figure that out, you could be the top fantasy player and analyst in the industry. Let’s see if we can look at some factors and determine when we should “split the party”.
Roll Call
There are some apparent options that we can rule out right away. If a player retires, is injured indefinitely, or passes the rainbow bridge way too early, we can look to release them. It is another scenario close to this but can be difficult to evaluate when they get into legal trouble. It is easier to determine when the suspension is announced.
Still, some managers are left with a difficult situation when it’s looming, like this offseason situation with Deshaun Watson, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook. I won’t dive into it too much, but our buddy Wai when into it in detail with this article, and I implore you to please read it when you get a chance.
Now to the not-so-obvious decisions to make. The first one to look at is the veteran age cliff. Certain position groups get to an age statistically, and we notice a drop in production. It varies between skill positions, but traditional running backs fall off earlier than the others. There is still a cliff for each one, but knowing when that happens is crucial. Then, if you can execute it correctly, you can try to move the players before they are on the wrong side of the age line to capitalize on the value for each of your roster spots.
The last thing to look at is early indicators that the rookie you drafted will bust. High draft picks should significantly impact the offenses they are drafted for now. The rookie salaries allow them to get the most out of them while initially not initially affecting the salary cap. This gains a massive emphasis for running backs since their career lengths are shorter on average than other positions.
Players like Jalen Reagor and N’Keal Harry could be impact players on their teams but are on depth charts with bleak outlooks. Some players take some waiting, but listening to reports and watching films of games should show signs that a player will have success or not right away.
To help prevent drafting busts, make sure to join The Undroppables and get access to our Rookie Guide!
Decision Time
Quick overview on some factors to look at for which players to release or transition from your roster, but when is the time to execute the release? Most of the time we are going to be wrong anyway since we can’t see into the future when a player does fall off the age cliff or if a rookie is able to turn it around after a slow start.
For me, I prefer to be too early than too late. If I am going to make the decision, I’m leaning toward being ok if I moved on from the player too early rather than too late. That way, I may have still gotten some good value in return rather than holding on and hoping until they eventually just get cut anyways. This goes especially if I am trading an aging veteran for some picks. Constantly trying to reload the iron bank while still competing is the ultimate scenario for any dynasty roster and what we are looking to achieve.
Be ok with being wrong as well. This is a game of a game, a hobby at best. We are going to make mistakes and hindsight will always prevail. Sticking to your gut and process and don’t get caught up with overanalyzing. If you feel good about it at the time, you should be happy with your decision regardless.
