The Unarmed Strike series will be offseason series focused on dynasty and redraft fantasy football offseason strategies that are themed with Dungeon & Dragons storytelling. Follow me @FF_Derekfuchs to see when my latest articles get posted.
Sage’s Insight
Everything Has Changed…
The morning starts with a warm glow from the window of your room at the tavern. You feel it embrace your body as you begin to wake up from the previous night’s activities. As your body becomes overrun with regret and nausea from the endless amounts of ales, you look for something to chase it away. An even warmer ale sits next to your bed, and you contemplate consuming as much as you can to get rid of the self-inflicted flu you gave yourself. Before you can even take the first sip, you see outside, and the world you knew when you went to sleep has completely changed…
In my previous article, I mentioned waiting and seeing how the trading and free agency goes to start evaluating your roster. Looking at the chaos that has been the start of the 2022 free agency, I am incredibly thankful if you decided to take my advice. Several big-name signings and trades will impact fantasy, and it is up to you to determine how each one will change how you handle this offseason.
In this article, we will go over some topics that the offseason changes will impact your rosters and strategies and how to navigate them. Then, you will act as a Sage and use your Insight checks to understand and gather as much information as possible to make the best-informed decisions.
Market Impacts (NFL & Fantasy Football)
The first thing you notice is the bustling crowds of townsfolks running between different tents. A traveling market has been set up overnight, and the people are active with the trading. The town went from a quiet, desolate community into a raging arms race with everyone trying to acquire what they needed for the upcoming seasons. You run down to see your crew noticing everything as well, and you try to join the pandemonium that is going on.
For the first time in recent memory, the landscape for starting quarterbacks has never changed as much as this offseason has. Luckily, we are keeping track of these trades with our Market Watch articles by Chalk and Market Update articles by Abe.
With the trades for Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, and countless others, I am a fan of all the change and uncertainty leading into the season. We are about to change several players’ fantasy outputs and will come down to some of the better analysis and gut feelings that managers have with rostered players.
Everyone will have some substantial gut reactions to these trades, so keep that in mind when players get thrown up on trading blocks and the offers get sent out. What will happen to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett’s fantasy values with Drew Lock at quarterback? Make sure you are still evaluating your trades correctly and not over-correcting with the changing market. Everyone wants to be early when taking a risk, which is completely fine. The issue is that not everyone is ok when it doesn’t work out. Fantasy football is not about being right but being wrong less of the time.
Valuing the FOMO Effect
As you can enter the street with the town frantically gathering goods from merchants, you start to listen and pay attention to the conversations from the different transactions:
“How can this be five gold?! Just last week, it was two gold and some silver.”
“I better get the last of this bread; every other place has been out for weeks.”
“Instead of 3 gold and some silver, I’ll give you two gold and this goat in exchange for that pig and some hay?”
A woman bumps into you and apologizes; she was in a rush and wasn’t looking forward. You ask her what is going on and she looks at you puzzled like you just woke up from being asleep for years instead of hours. “Have you not heard? The end of times is upon us!” You think, well, that certainly was not what you were expecting. But, she continues and explains that yesterday evening, a prophet traveled into town and talked about how the world would be coming to an end. You ask for the “prophet’s” name, knowing that this can’t be true. She says, “Herbert.” Why does that name sound so familiar…..?
Fear of missing out (FOMO) is one of the biggest crazes in all market transactions, including fantasy football. Rather than investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies, we are investing in players that we think are at a low enough value that makes sense to invest in and hope they outperform their expected value. Sounds easy enough, right? The problem will be everyone’s “value” on an asset will differ from how you view someone. So the actual value is much tougher to evaluate, unlike where stocks and cryptos have actual dollar values. Fantasy football assets are all speculation and educated guessing.
A recent debate in The Undroppable’s Discord (join today by becoming a Patron) was the valuation of Rashod Bateman. I voted that he could be labeled as a “Sell” asset in dynasty fantasy football. I loved him coming out of college and thought he could easily be the top WR in the 2021 draft class if he went to the right team. However, that did not happen. The Baltimore Ravens already have a limited passing offense (2021 was a massive increase to the previous normal for them, injuries to their running backs played a factor in that decision). The passing game is already giving a decent portion to Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, and it is hard to see a third-legitimate option. However, some of the staff did say to buy if that is the case; he is incredibly talented and can easily be an alpha WR that all offenses are looking for. But, again, value is all perception.
Persuasion Check (Brokering the Deal)
It hits you, the adventure board you drunkenly glanced over last night. Herbert was the name of a false prophet that was hitting up towns and selling stolen goods for huge prices. “Where is Herbert now!?” you exclaim, hoping this could be the easiest bounty you have ever done. The traveling false prophet just so happened to come to your town you were staying at! She says she wasn’t sure and runs to the next merchant, asking if any barley was left.
You think to yourself, where would I go if I was Herbert? You see a not-so-busy blacksmith and hastily make your way through the crowd before anyone else notices the lack of a crowd. “Hello there, sir. May I ask you a question?” He looks you up and down, possibly deciding how much money you have on you that he can get in a trade. “Of course, young man, my name is Gavin, and I have several swords and plates of armor left. Judging by your attire, you must be quite the adventurer.” You know this to be true, but you don’t have time to go into great detail on how great you indeed are. “Where can one find Herbert now? I need to ask him some questions.” Gavin’s face immediately changes, asking you to leave his stand. Was it something I said? Maybe how I approached him?…
Language is a powerful thing we can do. We choose our words and actions and still don’t grasp the impact they can have on other people. When it comes to trading, precisely trade offers and negotiations, language can be a massive influence from getting the deal done and destroying any chance of success of closing.
Some principles to keep in mind when negotiating and trade offers within your dynasty leagues:
League Integrity: Remember you will be with these owners for years to come, so preface your offers knowing that you will continually try to work out deals with everyone. Don’t try to burn bridges and get away with super lopsided deals. You can earn a reputation as trying to win every trade and screw others over, and then the accepted trades will go away.
Open Communication: Some deals are even won on the first offer if you are willing to explain why you are offering the trade. Be considerate that everyone’s views on players are different, and having an open dialogue can help understand where both sides need to be to get a trade done.
Needs Instead of Wants: Looking at the other owner’s rosters, you can understand a potential need they have and that you can fill with some of the depth you may have. Ask if they are looking to add to a position and start a conversation by asking who they might want or what it might take to get one of their players since you also have a need.
Enrollment Beginning
You stand, dazed by the interaction that should have been an easy exchange. You remember that there is still a bounty at hand, and you have until the end of the day to get the guy you are looking for. A horn blows in the distance; you jolt your body back to reality and look in the direction of the sound. The banner starts to rise, and you remember that there will be an open draft of new adventurers to add to your group. You need to decide if you can find Herbert on your own, or do you wait until the draft to start that journey as well…
For up-to-date Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings, check out The Undroppables Rankings!
