It’s not a secret that this year’s rookie draft class is top heavy with some studs and then filled with strong depth options throughout. Outside the chalk names that are circulating already, there’s a few prospects that are flying under the radar. As more dynasty fantasy football gamers get back into the fold, these 2022 rookies are sure to rise quickly up draft boards but it doesn’t hurt to know who to target so you can start planning accordingly.
Here are 4 NFL Draft prospects that you should keep an eye on. I used Jax’s Anatomy and added some other metrics to highlight these players’ profiles.
Desmond Ridder
Malik Willis may be the QB1 but it’s pretty open after that (Pickett is the consensus QB2 at the moment). After that, you have Sam Howell and Matt Corral who make cases to be the third QB taken in dynasty rookie drafts this summer. If you look further down most draft boards, former Cincinatti QB Desmond Ridder is name that people are overlooking. Ridder grades out nicely in all models I applied in my process, including PFF, Next Gen Stats, RAS, as well as The Undroppables Anatomy metrics. He’s still a raw prospect at 22 (with a late breakout at 20), but he has a cannon arm and the Konami upside that we all love with great athleticism and elite speed. Ridder led the ACC this past year in big-time throws (26) and rushing yards (542). Willis is getting the hype but the numbers and tape show that Ridder is a true dual-threat as well. I’ll happily trade down and let someone else take Pickett while I nab Ridder and some additional draft capital.
Desmond Ridder has acquired the codes 🎯 @ridder_desmond9 @GoBearcatsFB
(via @American_FB) pic.twitter.com/Mc3iKIeoKh
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) September 4, 2021
Kevin Harris
Harris has the ideal workhorse frame and comes into the league as a 21-year-old rookie. If you were building the perfect running back from scratch, you’d start there. Add in his early break out at age 19, 8.5 yards per carry, and 1,138 rushing yards in his sophomore year. It would be nice to give him a bellow label but it is hard to do that when his college best in receptions was 21 (with only 7.5% target share). Harris also does not possess the impressive tackle-breaking ability, ranking 7th in the SEC in yards after contact. Harris also posted the 2nd highest negative rush percentage in the SEC last season. These are definite warts to an otherwise intriguing profile.
Christian Watson
Watson is already getting a fair amount of hype already so he’s quickly moving up draft boards and rightfully so. Watson blew up the NFL Combine and posted one of the best RAS scores for a WR ever. While there are several prototypical alpha X receivers at the top of the rookie rankings, Watson may be a great consolation prize as a likely early 2nd round pick.
Bo Melton
Melton is flying under the radar for several reasons. He lacks great size and posted (for the most part) up and down production numbers. But the intangibles such as his technique and ability to separate, along with his unique build (shorter but with high BMI) mixed with good height-adjusted speed, make Melton an intriguing sleeper prospect. Ron Stewart coined the concept of dynamic betas and I think Melton is a WR that fits Ron’s mold. So instead of applying the normal Anatomy for WRs, I looked at Melton using Ron’s dynamic beta thresholds. Based on profile and production, Melton is a heavily discounted, poor man’s version of Chris Olave in this class. I expect Melton to slip to the 3rd-4th round of rookie drafts which will make him a solid value.
Some of best releases have a skate or glide to them. Filthy footwork here by Rutgers WR Bo Melton. @getbusy__bo is one of most underrated playmakers in 2022 draft.#BestoftheBest #TheDraftStartsInMOBILE™️ pic.twitter.com/dV7FBupGtt
— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) February 17, 2022
