In the first installment of our Understudy series, Mike Valverde profiles the 2021 rookie QB class and their outlooks for year one. Enjoy!
Since 2010, there have been 34 quarterbacks selected in the first round. On average, those quarterbacks have started on Week 5.
Signal callers who have started after that time are Christian Ponder (Week 7), Jared Goff (Week 10), Patrick Mahomes (Week 17), Lamar Jackson (Week 10), Dwayne Haskins (Week 9), and Tua Tagovailoa (Week 8). Three did not start the entire season; those were Jake Locker, Johnny Manziel, and Jordan Love. 13 of the 34 QBs started Week 1. With this data in mind, how should we think about the 2021 class and their range of outcomes in a league that is continuously pushing young QBs to get live action sooner in the season?
Let’s take a look at each of the top QB prospects’ profiles and determine how valuable they are for redraft leagues in 2021.
Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence was the first overall pick in the NFL draft, which shocked nearly nobody. He was the darling when he came to Clemson in 2018 and won the National Championship as a true freshman. Lawrence has great size (6’6″, 213 pounds) and combines excellent pocket passing with his running capabilities. He still needs to get better at manipulating safeties and will sail the ball on occasion. However, he has improvisational talent and the arm to make all the throws. Lawrence will need to be better in his decision-making and accuracy when under pressure, but he’s generally a smooth operator with an extremely high ceiling.
Lawrence will offer fantasy value right away. He will start Week 1, and like most high-tier quarterbacks, he can produce rushing yards. Lawrence was averaging 25 rushing yards per game at Clemson, but his focus is more on throwing than being a take-off-and-run style QB like his counterparts Justin Fields and Trey Lance. He isn’t in dire need of weapons, as Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, and D.J. Chark all will be at his disposal. Lawrence is also reunited with his former college teammate at running back, Travis Etienne.
As of this writing, Lawrence has an ADP of QB14 with a low of QB22. Keep an eye on him how he uses his weapons in the preseason. All the coaches and players will be giving him loads of shout outs, so make him pass the eye test before pulling the trigger at that ADP.
Justin Fields
It was somewhat surprising to hear head coach Matt Nagy announce that Andy Dalton would be the starting quarterback in Week 1 over Justin Fields. Nagy made the statement to Cris Collinsworth on his podcast when asked: “if there’s any possible scenario in which this wouldn’t be the case come opening night.”
“No. Andy is our starter,” Nagy told Collinsworth. “Again, I can’t predict anything. You know how it goes. There’s so many things that can happen between today and that Week 1, but Andy is our starter, and Justin’s our No. 2. And we’re going to stick to this plan.”
However, there is no mention that Fields won’t be the Week 2 starter, or the Week 3, or exactly when! Consider this: Chicago moved up to the 11th selection to draft Fields in the first round to make him their franchise quarterback. Also, the Bears are not beholden to Dalton’s salary, as he is only making $10 million on his one-year deal, which is the 18th-most at the position. Throw in Nagy and GM Ryan Pace being on the hot seat, with the temperature turned up to a scorching level, and Fields won’t wait long to be named the starting QB.
Fields (6’3″, 227 pounds) is a dual-threat and ran a 4.44 second 40-yard dash while accumulating 1,133 yards in 34 collegiate games at Ohio State. However, Fields is more of a pocket passer (67 touchdowns to just nine interceptions) who can extend plays than a pure running quarterback. He had an inconsistent 2020 season, but he demonstrated toughness and leadership qualities. Fields is accurate and throws with velocity in the open field, but he needs to improve his ability to read the entire field.
Fields is comfortable within the intermediate range, but will need to get better with anticipation and pre/post-snap recognition. As a result, Fields will continue to take unnecessary sacks until he can get a grasp on recognizing the pressures and dangers. Look for Fields to continue to improve and be a solid starter in a few seasons.
Fields’ value is derived by his legs and how much time he will be on the field. He is a fringe starter for fantasy football teams if he plays all 17, so feel comfortable drafting him as QB15-20.
Zach Wilson
Zach Wilson is expected to start Week 1. Wilson was the second pick of the NFL draft, so he has the draft capital. Wilson has a powerful arm and can make any throw. He can get it downfield while on the run, and he’s accurate at each level. Wilson completed 73.5 percent of his passes at BYU, which was second in the FBS. He has excellent mobility, but lacks ideal size (6’2″ and 214 pounds). Wilson came on strong his junior season with 33 touchdowns after only throwing 23 in 18 games his freshman and sophomore seasons.
The gunslinger in Wilson shows up in his improvised release points and inconsistent anticipation with a desire to hit the big play. He is mobile and can extend plays with his legs, but needs to be better at making decisions. Wilson throws with accuracy while being off-platform, his passes come with drive, and he sticks the ball into windows in Cover 2 defenses. He is confident, but he sails throws at times.
Wilson does offer the running ability and will start in Week 1. Still, there are concerns that he won’t be able to handle the punishment of NFL defenses due to his diminutive size. Also, his gunslinger mentality leads to costly turnovers. Wilson is on the verge of not being drafted, but a late dart throw, especially in a keeper league, could lead to value.
Mac Jones
Mac Jones was the fifth and last quarterback selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Jones was a highly accurate passer at Alabama, and his 41:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio is spectacular. He plays with anticipation and reads defenses, but has below-average arm strength. Jones will overthink his decisions rather than have the offense’s progression dictate where he should go with the ball. The Crimson Tide offensive playmakers also made things easier for him. Jones will panic when pressure occurs, and he doesn’t have the athleticism to get him out of trouble.
Jones comes into an offense with Cam Newton already as the starter. However, per ESPN’s Mike Reiss, while Newton holds an edge in terms of experience and mobility, Reiss notes that when Jones “had it going” during OTAs and minicamp, the team’s passing game “most closely resembled what it had been for the better part of the past two decades from a timing, rhythm and accuracy standpoint.”
The Patriots don’t need Jones to start right away, and without the yards on the ground (42 rushing yards in 30 career games), he will struggle to support his floor. The offensive weapons in New England are not elite, as Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor, and N’Keal Harry won’t scare many defensive coordinators. Also, the running game of Damien Harris, Sony Michel, Rhamondre Stevenson, and James White is poor. The best of the bunch could be the dual tight ends of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith.
Jones’ ADP is the QB34, and his value is tied directly to his starting availability. Unless he can start by Week 3, he should be left on the waiver wire in all redraft leagues.
Trey Lance
Trey Lance was the third selection of the NFL Draft and the quarterback the 49ers wanted from the beginning. He offers a dual-threat capability, but comes from the FCS and is only 21 years old. Lance led the North Dakota State Bison by throwing 28 TD passes with no interceptions. He also rushed for 1,100 yards and 14 TDs.
Jimmy Garoppolo is entrenched as the starter. It will need to take either a complete collapse of Garoppolo, injury, or the 49ers being a horrible team for Lance to see the field early enough to be valuable. It’s difficult to see any of these situations open up for Lance. He is nearly undraftable at this point in redraft, but can offer value at the end of season if he can see the field.
You can follow Mike for more analysis on Twitter, @RFLRedZone.
