The Art of Dynasty | Chapter 17 (Winning the Offseason)

Building a dynasty fantasy football team requires strategic thinking and football acumen similar to planning a long military campaign. You must intimately understand your leaguemates’ rosters and tendencies, diligently prepare for the rookie draft and waiver wire, and thoughtfully craft a balanced yet versatile roster aligned to your vision. Knowing when to push all chips to the table for a title run or temporarily rebuild for sustained excellence is equally critical. The finest dynasty owners combine sharp situational analysis with statistical rigor and old-fashioned football study to construct juggernauts that dominate their leagues for years.

This guide outlines core tenets to help you architect a formidable roster poised for both immediate and enduring success. By internalizing essential dynasty strategies around planning, preparation, roster construction, and pivoting between competing goals, you too can rule over your leaguemates year after year like a battle-tested emperor of old.

1. Startup Drafts
2. Roster Construction
3. Ideal Archetypes
4. Ship Chasing
5. Iron Bank
6. Rookie Pick Values
7. Rookie Drafts
8. Trading
9. Roster Management
10. Bayesian Inference
11. Startup Supreme
12. Roster Crunch
13. Trade Assessment
14. Productive Struggle
15. Game Theory
16. Startup Trades & Pick Swaps
17. Winning the Offseason
18. Rebuild Roadmap
19. Revanche
20. Kingdom Come

In dynasty fantasy football, the offseason is not a time for rest; it’s a period of strategic opportunity and crucial decision-making that can set the foundation for future championships. Employing a mix of “Art of Dynasty” principles and game theory analysis can turn an average team into a perennial contender. This blog dives deep into how to approach the offseason with a strategic mindset, emphasizing key tactics to maximize your team’s potential.

Staying Informed

Vigilance on Player and Team News

Keeping up-to-date with player and team news is crucial. Changes in coaching staff, player transactions, and health updates can drastically affect a player’s fantasy value. For example, a backup running back could gain immense value if the starting running back moves teams or suffers an injury. Use this information to adjust your roster strategy and target or offload players at their peak relevance.

1. Monitor Coaching Changes:
   • Scheme Impact: Coaching changes can significantly impact player usage and team schemes. A new head coach or offensive coordinator can drastically alter a player’s fantasy outlook.
   • Target Adjustments: Adjust your target lists based on new coaching strategies that may benefit or hinder specific players.
2. Track Player Transactions:
   • Free Agency Moves: Keep a close eye on free agency and trades. Players changing teams can see their value rise or fall depending on their new situation.
   • Injury Updates: Stay informed about player injuries and recoveries. An injured starter can elevate the value of their backup.
3. Analyze Team Dynamics:
   • Depth Charts: Regularly review team depth charts to identify potential breakout players.
   • Positional Battles: Follow positional battles, particularly during training camps, to spot emerging starters.

Maximizing Roster Efficiency

Active Management of Waiver Wire

The waiver wire is a goldmine in the offseason. Players can often be dropped due to roster crunches, salary cap issues, or simply other managers’ impatience or oversight. Being active and vigilant allows you to capitalize on these opportunities to strengthen your team without compromising assets.

1. Daily Monitoring:
   • Frequent Checks: Check the waiver wire daily to stay ahead of other managers in claiming valuable players.
   • FAAB Strategy: Use Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) strategically, saving some for high-upside pickups but also being aggressive when needed.
2. Identify Drop Candidates:
   • Rosters in Flux: Look for teams making cuts due to salary cap or roster limitations, which can create opportunities for you to pick up dropped players.

Strategic Stashing

Utilizing IR and taxi squad spots effectively is crucial. These roster positions are perfect for stashing players who may not contribute immediately but could have future value. Once players are moved off these spots, they often can’t be returned until the next season, so judicious use of these spots is essential. Avoid prematurely clearing these spots unless absolutely necessary.

1. Optimal Use of IR Spots:
   • Injured Players: Stash players on IR who are expected to return next season or those who have high future upside.
   • Long-Term Injuries: Utilize IR spots for players with long-term injuries but promising outlooks once they recover.
2. Effective Taxi Squads:
   • Rookie Development: Place high-upside rookies on the taxi squad to develop without taking up active roster spots.
   • Future Stars: Focus on stashing players who are likely to see significant playing time in the next season or two.

Avoiding Roster Cloggers

Evaluate your roster and identify ‘cloggers’—players who offer no realistic future value or opportunity in your lineup. Prioritize stashing high-upside backups, particularly running backs on run-heavy teams or backup quarterbacks who could ascend due to team changes or starter injuries.

1. Regular Roster Audits:
   • Performance Review: Regularly review player performance and potential. Drop players who are unlikely to contribute meaningfully.
   • Opportunity Analysis: Focus on players with clear paths to increased roles, particularly those in favorable team situations.
2. High-Upside Backups:
   • Running Backs: Stash backup running backs in strong run-heavy offenses. These players can become valuable starters due to injuries or team changes.
   • Quarterbacks: Backup quarterbacks with potential to start due to injuries or changes in team dynamics can be valuable stash candidates.

Engaging in Strategic Negotiations

Behind-the-Scenes Engagement

Communicating with other managers can uncover valuable trade opportunities. Understanding what others are seeking can help you tailor trades that benefit both parties, leveraging your assets optimally and building relationships that facilitate future deals.

1. Build Relationships:
   • Frequent Communication: Engage in regular conversations with other managers to understand their needs and preferences.
   • Trade Proposals: Tailor your trade proposals to address both your needs and the other manager’s roster gaps.
2. Leverage Information:
   • Mutual Benefits: Present trades as mutually beneficial to increase the likelihood of acceptance.
   • Future Deals: Building good trade relationships can open doors for future deals and collaborations.

Timing Rookie Pick Acquisitions

If you’re targeting rookie picks, the early offseason is the prime time to act. As the NFL Combine and Draft approach, the hype around rookies increases, inflating their perceived value. Acquiring these picks before this hype cycle can provide significant cost savings and better trade leverage.

1. Early Acquisition:
   • Pre-Combine: Target rookie picks before the NFL Combine when their value is relatively lower.
   • Cost Savings: Benefit from lower costs before the rookie hype peaks.
2. Trade Leverage:
   • Value Increase: Use the increased value of rookie picks post-Combine to leverage better trade deals.
   • Draft Flexibility: Acquiring picks early gives you flexibility in the draft to move up or down based on available talent.

Advanced Analytical Approaches

Building Seasonal Projections

Constructing your own player projections based on expected team roles, past performance, and potential developments can provide a competitive edge. These projections help identify undervalued players to target and overvalued players to avoid or trade away. Utilize a variety of sources and your own insights to refine these projections, adding a layer of personal expertise to your strategy.

1. 1. Comprehensive Data Analysis:
      • Multiple Sources: Use data from various sources to create well-rounded projections.
      • Team Roles: Factor in expected team roles and player usage in your projections.
   2. Identify Value Opportunities:
      • Undervalued Targets: Look for players who are undervalued based on your projections and target them in trades.
      • Overvalued Players: Identify overvalued players and consider trading them at peak value.

Applying Game Theory

Incorporating game theory into your offseason strategy involves predicting and influencing the actions of other league members. By understanding the motivations and likely moves of your competitors, you can make preemptive decisions that benefit your team.

Anticipate Moves

Predicting team needs and possible waiver claims can help you act first, securing key players before they become widely sought after.

1. Competitor Analysis:
   • Team Needs: Analyze your competitors’ team needs to anticipate their moves.
   • Preemptive Actions: Secure key players before your competitors can act on them.
2. Waiver Predictions:
   • Claim Timing: Time your waiver claims to maximize the chances of securing valuable players.
   • Block Moves: Consider making waiver claims that block your competitors from strengthening their teams.

Create Scarcity

By acquiring depth in positions of scarcity (e.g., viable starting quarterbacks in superflex leagues), you can create market leverage, driving up trade values.

1. Position Scarcity:
   • Depth Acquisition: Acquire depth in scarce positions to create trade leverage.
   • Market Control: Use your control over scarce positions to drive up trade values.
2. Trade Negotiations:
   • Scarcity Leverage: Leverage your depth in scarce positions during trade negotiations to secure better deals.
   • Market Manipulation: Manipulate the market to your advantage by controlling key positions.

Simulate Scenarios

Run through hypothetical offseason scenarios to test out different strategies, such as aggressive trading or conservative drafting. This helps prepare you for various outcomes and identify the most promising approaches.

1. Scenario Planning:
   • Hypothetical Strategies: Test different strategies through hypothetical scenarios to identify the most effective approach.
   • Outcome Analysis: Analyze potential outcomes to refine your offseason strategy.
2. Strategic Flexibility:
   • Adaptability: Be prepared to adapt your strategy based on the outcomes of simulated scenarios.
   • Proactive Adjustments: Make proactive adjustments to your plan based on scenario outcomes.

The Offseason is Your Strategic Playground

The offseason in dynasty fantasy football is a critical period filled with opportunities for those who are prepared and proactive. By staying informed, strategically managing your roster, engaging in thoughtful negotiations, and applying game theory, you can significantly enhance your team’s long-term viability and competitive edge. Remember, in dynasty leagues, every move can have lasting impacts, and the offseason is where the groundwork for future success is laid.

Please support us on Patreon!