Building a dynasty fantasy football team requires strategic thinking and football acumen similar to planning a long military campaign. You must intimately understand your leaguemates’ rosters and tendencies, diligently prepare for the rookie draft and waiver wire, and thoughtfully craft a balanced yet versatile roster aligned to your vision. Knowing when to push all chips to the table for a title run or temporarily rebuild for sustained excellence is equally critical. The finest dynasty owners combine sharp situational analysis with statistical rigor and old-fashioned football study to construct juggernauts that dominate their leagues for years.
This guide outlines core tenets to help you architect a formidable roster poised for both immediate and enduring success. By internalizing essential dynasty strategies around planning, preparation, roster construction, and pivoting between competing goals, you too can rule over your leaguemates year after year like a battle-tested emperor of old.
- Startup Drafts
- Roster Construction
- Ideal Archetypes
- Ship Chasing
- Iron Bank
- Rookie Pick Values
- Rookie Drafts
- Trading
- Roster Management
- Bayesian Inference
- Startup Supreme
- Roster Crunch
- Trade Assessment
- Productive Struggle
- Game Theory
- Startup Trades & Pick Swaps
- Winning the Offseason
- Rebuild Roadmap
- Revanche
- Kingdom Come
Take lock and stubbornness are a death sentence in dynasty fantasy football. Bayesian Inference is all about changing your opinions and thoughts around a player given new information. This chapter explores how to apply Bayesian principles to your dynasty strategies, helping you avoid common biases and make more informed decisions.
Understanding Bayesian Inference
Bayesian Inference involves processing as much data as possible and avoiding “take lock.” This means continuously updating your beliefs based on new evidence. Brian notes that you should process new information, compare it to what we already know, and use that to create a new opinion. The only wrong take is one that is not open to change based on new information.
he NFL landscape is constantly changing and so are the outlooks of players in terms of fantasy football. This is why many smart fantasy gamers will tell you to “buy the dip” on players who are expected to bounce back. As I mentioned in Chapter 8, you should look to trade for players who you expect to return to form. A player who has a proven track record over his career should be bet on to get back on track. But applying Bayesian principles to fantasy football goes both ways. As you notice a downward trend on certain players, consider moving off of them before it’s too late.
- Continuous Learning
- Data Processing: Regularly incorporate new data and insights into your player evaluations.
- Flexible Opinions: Be willing to adjust your stance on players as new information becomes available.
- Adapting to Change
- Market Shifts: Recognize that the NFL landscape and player outlooks are constantly changing.
- Player Performance: Be prepared to buy the dip on players expected to bounce back based on historical performance and current trends.
Avoid Anchoring
With that said, Bayesian Inference also tells us that we need to constantly be changing the way we view players who have “burned” us in the past. Players who started off their careers in a lackluster fashion, but eventually break out should be viewed without bias. Anchoring is the idea that we use pre-existing data as a reference point for all subsequent data, which can skew our decision-making processes. This causes us to rely too heavily on past information. By utilizing Bayesian principles in our fantasy processes, we can avoid falling prey to anchoring bias.
- Re-Evaluate Players
- Fresh Perspectives: Continuously reassess players who have “burned” you in the past or started their careers slowly but have shown improvement.
- Unbiased Evaluation: Avoid letting past performances unduly influence your current assessments.
Be flexible, read nuances, identify trends, and change your perspective and adjust.
Buying the Dip
Smart fantasy gamers often advise “buying the dip” on players who are expected to return to form. A player with a proven track record over his career should be bet on to get back on track.
- Identify Targets
- Track Record: Look for players with historically strong performance who are currently undervalued.
- Temporary Setbacks: Target players who may have had a down year due to injury or other temporary factors.
- Timely Trades
- Market Timing: Trade for these players before their value rebounds, capitalizing on the temporary dip in their market value.
- Leverage Historical Data: Use past performance data to predict potential rebound seasons from historically proven producers.
Selling Before Decline
Applying Bayesian principles also involves recognizing downward trends in certain players and moving off of them before it’s too late.
- Monitor Trends
- Performance Declines: Keep an eye on players showing signs of decline in their performance metrics.
- Injury Risks: Be cautious of players with increasing injury histories or age-related declines.
- Strategic Sales
- Maximize Value: Trade these players while they still hold significant market value.
- Avoid Anchoring: Do not let past success anchor your decision to hold onto a declining player.
Advanced Applications
Statistical Improvement
Analyzing statistical improvements over time can provide insights into a player’s development trajectory and future potential.
- Predictive Modeling
- Trend Analysis: Use historical trends to predict future performance improvements or declines.
- Adjust Projections: Continuously adjust your player projections based on the latest data and observed trends.
Flexibility in Strategy
Being flexible, reading nuances, identifying trends, and changing your perspective based on new information are key to long-term success in dynasty fantasy football.
- Dynamic Adjustments
- Player Evaluations: Regularly update your evaluations based on new data, avoiding rigid adherence to outdated opinions.
- Strategic Shifts: Be willing to shift your strategy as new information emerges, ensuring you remain competitive.
- Identifying Trends
- Emerging Patterns: Stay ahead of the curve by identifying emerging trends before they become mainstream.
- Proactive Moves: Make proactive moves based on these trends, positioning yourself for future success.
Applying Bayesian Inference to your dynasty fantasy football strategy involves continuous learning, adapting to new information, and avoiding common biases like anchoring. By staying flexible and open to change, you can make more informed decisions, buy the dip on undervalued players, and sell before a decline. This strategic approach will help you build a resilient and competitive dynasty team capable of sustained success.
