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Breaking Bread with Liz Loza

Thank you for returning for another meal with The Undroppables. If this is your first time dining with us, please see Issue #1 for the premise. For those who ate with us in 2022, thank you for helping us earn a nomination from the Fantasy Sports Writers Association for Best Football Article Series. The recognition alone was a massive success for the series, and a big thank you to everyone that helped. As always, we have saved a seat; please join Wai Sallas and me – as we prepare to break bread again.

The 2023 season of Breaking Bread kicks off Issue #4 with Liz Loza from ESPN. The setting for this lunch is in San Fernando Valley (aka The Valley) – at a gem of Peruvian cuisine nestled between two pawn shops near the corner of Van Nuys and Victory Boulevards. Puro Sabor is an authentic “hole in the wall” serving delicious and classic Peruvian cuisine. Liz chose the locale to highlight her favorite restaurant that represents her culture the best through exceptionally homemade food.

Early Years

While Liz may present as white American due to her light complexion and hazel eyes, she is Latina to her core. Her father is Peruvian and comes from a large family in the southern Andes region. And while her mother’s family immigrated from Hungary, she has a Master’s degree in Latin American studies and lived in Mexico and Spain. Her parents met while her mother worked at an employment agency for Latinos in Chicago called Casa Sanal. Fresh after a breakup, Liz’s mom became captivated by the handsome older gentleman, and they soon married. Since both her parents were fluent in Spanish, Liz grew up in a Spanish-speaking household in the City.

Later when her parents divorced, she moved with her mother to her grandparents’ house in the suburbs of Chicago. Thrust into a new world at a young age. Growing up in a blue-collar, white middle-class neighborhood in the Midwest, people can make assumptions when they see light hair and eyes. The same is true about her Peruvian family. She felt that she never entirely belonged. Whether because she didn’t have the right look, had a single mom, or was half-Peruvian. She was ‘too Latina’ for the neighborhood but ‘too güera‘ for the family. So she learned to create her world and path.

Being an outsider became a theme in Liz’s life. But instead of letting it hold her back, she embraces it and uses it to overcome any challenges she faces. Her path to ESPN proves that outsiders can succeed with hard work and talent. She creates opportunities by providing consistent, exceptional, original content that connects with people. She has built friendships in the industry that helped her along the way and manifested her success many times over. Liz finds ways to reinvent herself to create a successful life, with an evolving career even as she has reached the near pinnacle of the sports broadcasting world – ESPN.

Course 1 – Ceviche Mixta

Peruvian cuisine evolved from the traditional foods of the indigenous peoples, such as the Inca, blended with dishes brought to Peru by immigrants from Europe, Asia, and Africa. Some staple ingredients include corn, potatoes, quinoa, and beans. And with its long coastline, fish is a staple protein, especially in coastal areas. That’s why this meal had to begin with one of the main appetizers you’ll find in Peruvian restaurants. One that combines the best of land and sea in Ceviche Mixta.

Anyone familiar with Mexican, Spanish, and Latin American food has had a quality ceviche with cut-up pieces of fish mixed with onions and chiles, “cooked” in lime or lemon juice. However, you might have yet to learn that ceviche originated in Peru. What you may have had in a local restaurant or on vacation is a riff on ceviche (or cebiche) from Peru. What sets this original version apart is not so much the preparation but serving it with corn, chulpe (similar to ‘corn nuts’), and sweet potatoes. The fish and seafood are delicious on their own, with a nice kick of heat from the chilis, but the perfect bite with all the fish and sides is one of a kind. The mix of sweet, salty, crunchy, acidic, and a little umami all in one bite. This dish is quintessentially Peruvian.

*El Entremés  – Liz’s favorite fantasy football starter for the 2023 season: “I don’t want to trigger anyone by bringing up running back draft strategy in May… but I’m all-in on a strict Anchor RB approach. Admittedly, I’ve only done a few mocks, but I’ve been consistently nabbing Rachaad White in the “dead zone” (typically rounds 4-6). A deft pass-catcher with eagle-eye vision in the open field, White figures to post solid numbers despite playing on what’s likely to be an inefficient offense. He’s in line for at least 16 touches per contest with Leonard Fournette gone and little other competition on the roster. That’s good enough for my squad’s RB2.”

* A side dish or short performance played during the interlude

College Life

Liz is first generation American on her father’s side and a second-generation American on her mother’s side. And when you are the descendant of highly educated immigrants, the expectations can be high. Whether you choose to accept them or not.

Wai: Was there a strong push from them for you to go college? 

Liz: Oh yeah…and I’m an only child, so there is no failure.

Many of us have felt that pressure to succeed from parents, especially first-generation Americans. But the right amount of stress can create a drive to succeed, pushing you to overcome the odds. Liz excelled in school and was accepted to Brown University. She wanted to study theatre at one of the top universities in the nation. But, to her mother’s dismay, she wanted Liz to study law. The compromise was a double major in law and theatre.

Once again, Liz found herself in a world foreign to her. Brown University in Rhode Island is a world away from Chicago – physically and culturally. At first, she was so intimidated and uncomfortable that the first two years felt like she was in hiding. Liz didn’t grow up poor, but to her, rich was a four-bedroom house, and she worked to pay for books and living expenses. Her new classmates weren’t just wealthy, but they came from privilege. One of them was a kid of one of the Beatles.

Liz was again an outsider finding her way, which led her to study abroad in her Junior year. During that trip, Liz gained confidence in herself, her talent, and her ability to connect with an audience. She returned her Senior year and crushed it. She was solidifying that she was ready for the next move to Hollywood.  

Course 2 – Papa A La Huancaina

One popular dish representing the Andes region where Liz’s paternal family is from is Papa a la Huancaina. Or potatoes Huancayo-style. And since potatoes originated in the Andes region, this dish is a precursor for many more “cheesy potato” dishes. A simple dish with an incredible flavor made from boiled yellow potatoes covered with a spicy, creamy, cheesy yellow sauce and served with hard-boiled eggs. The Huancaina sauce blends queso fresco, oil, milk, soda crackers, and aji de amarillo.

Aji could have its article written about it. This native Peruvian pepper is a mainstay in most dishes or as a sauce on the side of every dish. Aji de amarillo not only gives Papa a la Huancaina its signature color but also its signature spice. This little pepper delivers a punch of spice that isn’t overpowering. And you can typically find three general varieties of chili pepper in most Peruvian dishes: aji de amarillo (yellow), aji rojo (red), and aji verde (green). However, there are numerous varieties of the famous aji chili pepper. But for your first venture into the world of aji, Papa a la Huancaina is the dish to try.

El Entremés – NFL rookie Liz expects to have a hot start: “It can’t not be Bijan. I might move him up to RB3 by August (he’s currently my RB5).”

Hollywood Dreams

Liz graduated from Brown and moved to Los Angeles to pursue acting. Her mom was supportive and believed she would succeed because Liz had never failed in anything she put her mind to. But her mother was not going to support her financially. So Liz waited tables and worked at Maggiano’s in Chicago to save enough money to move. And once the new Maggiano’s opened in L.A., Liz used her seniority to put in for a transfer. So she and her mom packed up the 90’s edition Nissan Maxima and made the cross-country trip to chase her dream.

Fresh into L.A., Liz had a car and a job lined up, with her preferred shift locked in. She was setting herself up for success from the jump. One of her first credits in town came on a show called Strong Medicine alongside another Chicago native, Rosa Blasi. She is possibly more well-known to parents reading this for her role in The Thundermans. Liz and Rosa went to the same high school in Chicago, and while they didn’t know each other from back home, meeting another Chicagoan in LA was comforting. But meeting another half-Latina successfully working as an actor was inspiring.

That inspiration helped push Liz to fully pursue acting for the next six years. Liz hustled but needed help to book consistent long-term gigs. She landed single-episode parts on TV shows like The Bold and The Beautiful, 24, Criminal Minds, and Law & Order. And a handful of indie and short films that even the most serious movie buff would need help finding. Liz loved acting and loved the feeling of landing a role and crushing the performance.

But the working actor job in Hollywood was beginning to wear on her. Especially when you’re competing with the nepotism in the industry. The ‘nepo baby’ thing was long before Maya Hawk booked Stranger Things. So you try to stand out to be different. But then Hollywood doesn’t care because you’re different from every other hot 25-something looking to make it. It became exhausting for Liz.

“There were moments of giant elation like booking your first pilot…but I remember also it feels very much like trying to be a member of a club that’s not particularly interested in having me.”

 

It all came to a head for Liz when she booked a pilot for ABC with big names shot in front of a live studio audience. It was one of the top 5 moments of her career because the taping of the pilot was a hit in the studio. The lines stayed hitting, jokes improvised, and the laughs from the audience were flowing. But for some reason, the energy and humor didn’t translate the same in the final edit. And the show became shelved for Last Man Standing with Tim Allen, which ran for nine seasons.

“In this town especially, there is nothing sadder than watching someone who promised the 10-year-old version of themselves they would do something, and they are living in misery and resentment. And because they made that promise, they cannot release themselves of the assumption of failure…therefore divorcing themselves from so many potential opportunities…because if they’re not doing this, they’re failing. And I’m like; you’re already failing because you’re miserable.”

That sparked a change in Liz. Would she keep fighting to break into an industry that seemingly didn’t want to have her? Or would she take a risk on herself to create a path of her own, just like she had done before? She was not like everybody else, and she’s never been like anyone else. So she decided to do something not everyone else did, and The Fantasy Football Girl was born.

Course 3 – Aji De Gallina

The aji de amarillo chili returns as the featured ingredient for my favorite meal course, the Aji de Gallina. Maybe because it reminds me of something mom would make, a tasty stew with meat or chicken served over rice; it’s comfort food. And while it heavily features the hometown aji de amarillo chili, the origins of this dish are entirely foreign. According to sociologist Isabel Álvarez Novoa, Aji de Gallina originated from a dish called Manjar blanco. A complete shift in flavor because Manjar blanco, or the similar Blancmange, is a sweet dessert popular in Europe.

This dish presents as the opposite of sweet because of the Spanish-style sofrito base. History says that French chefs fleeing the French Revolution in the late 1700s created the dish when they arrived for work in Spanish settlements in Peru. They added the popular local aji de amarillo chili there, and a new dish was born. Aji de Gallina is a gastronomic surprise. It’s unassuming as just a yellow chicken stew. The sauce is created with bread soaked in chicken stock, blended, and added to a sofrito, including aji de amarillo. Shredded chicken, crushed pecans or almonds, and cheese are then stirred and simmered to thicken. A little cream tops it off for the right consistency, and it’s served over potatoes with rice, a hard-boiled egg, and olive—the surprise star of the meal.

El Entremés – Surprise of the 2023 Draft Class: “A Chicago-area native being drafted by the Packers on his birthday is a big surprise. Jayden Reed may not have the most exciting athletic profile, but his instincts are on-point. He’s a crisp route-runner with excellent body control and strong hands. His ability to adjust mid-air and reel in off-target throws is a thing of beauty. Another young weapon for Jordan Love, Reed probably won’t see enough volume in his first year to crack the top 50 fantasy WRs. However, his versatility makes him a potential year-two breakout candidate.”

The Fantasy Football Girl

Creating your lane means recognizing where emerging opportunities are available in the market. Since Hollywood was still being prepared (at the time) for something different, Liz looked for other spaces that could use and would welcome diversity. But Liz didn’t just enter the fantasy football world to find a new creative and professional outlet. Liz truly loves football. As a child, Liz grew up watching football with her maternal grandfather. And as a Chicago native, she watched the Bears and paid attention to all NFC North teams. However, she found her love for fantasy with the love of her life, talent agent Joel Begleiter.

Liz would crash at Joel’s place on weekends while they were dating. As a struggling actor, Liz was impressed with not only the fact that Joel had a lovely couch and the RedZone channel, but he also had WiFi! The icing on the cake was when Joel asked Liz if she wanted to order takeout and watch football all day Sunday. But, the cake topper for Joel was when he heard Liz talk about all the players on TV and started asking her for advice. Her advice was good; she helped him manage that team to a championship. And after taking on a team of her own in Joel’s fantasy league and winning the trophy in Year 1, Liz was hooked.

By 2009, Liz was still dabbling in acting but decided to start her blog at the prompting of Joel. And after her pilot sitcom pilot episode was canned, she leaned into it with full force. From the beginning, Liz knew her lane and what she was bringing to the table. But, of course, she wasn’t an expert (yet), and she was here to learn. But how she crafted her analysis made her stand out—mixing data and player profile analysis with references to Dirty Dancing and referencing pop culture touchstones to connect with the audience, and building a new audience of women who watch football and play fantasy—finding new ways to connect with them through avenues like Twitter.

Puro Sabor on Van Nuys Boulevard

She put everything she learned in the acting industry into her video content. Thankfully she had director and producer friends that gave her some old video equipment and lights to work with. Liz saved her money to buy a first-generation iPad because it had a teleprompter app. She found a guy in Texas selling boxes with reflective glass so she could set up her iPad as a teleprompter under the camera. Put herself on a content schedule and conceived branding for two weekly video shows. And released videos every Monday and Friday, and wrote a weekly column every Wednesday and once on the weekend. She was already treating it like a job.

With the growth of the blog came increased notoriety on Twitter. Industry guys like Andy Behrens began to take notice and invited Liz to write guest articles for Yahoo Fantasy Sports. Noticing the growth in podcasting after 2010, Liz began to do guest spots and connected with the Football Guys to do a sleeper segment. That segment boosted her popularity, and Nando di Fino invited her to guest multiple times on his Sirius XM show, with its excellent 10 am time slot. Her name continued to grow, and Dr. Roto himself, Mark Bloom, slid into the DMs to say, “Why don’t I know you yet? And can I give your info to my bosses?” Those bosses were at Scout.com, which was affiliated with Fox and eventually acquired by CBS.

Earning her first full-time job in the industry, Liz worked her ass off that year working for Scout, which wasn’t easy, given that she had a 14-month-old baby at home and no family nearby to help. Her acting career was drying up, but she was doing more voice-over work and allowing her to work from home when the baby slept, recording voices for Robot Chicken and ads for Pier One Imports. She ground with little sleep, but the quality of her work and work ethic gave her credibility in the industry. This resonated with an old friend in Andy Behrens and a new friend Brad Evans who happened to be hiring a new fantasy head at Yahoo Fantasy. Liz was once again primed to pivot towards a path unknown.

Course 4 – Lomo Saltado

When I think of Peruvian food, what comes to mind is lomo saltado. Because before today, all my forays into Peruvian cuisine had consisted primarily of lomo saltado and eaten at any number of the decent-at-best Peruvian restaurants named Inka something. Inka King, Inka Pollo, Pollo Inka, Inka de Pollo, or Inka Cantina to name a few. And the safe choice to order at any of these restaurants is the Lomo Saltado. After all, it’s hard to go wrong with stir-fried steak over fries.

However, what has become America’s most recognizable Peruvian dishes was created with untraditional origins. Enslaved Chinese people and servants, and later immigrant workers in the 1800s who came to Peru, brought their cooking traditions with them. Working with only pieces of beef, cooks added sliced onion, tomato, and peppers to a wok, stir-fried everything together, and served over rice. And because potatoes are a staple in Peru, papas fritas were added later. These new cooking techniques and the influx of Chinese immigrants created a unique cuisine called Chifa, which has become one of the most popular cuisines in Peru today.

El Entremés – Liz’s safe choice that everyone must draft next season: “Jefferson and Chase seem too obvious. Kupp and his QB are coming back from injuries. Davante’s talent under center keeps declining. And Stefon Diggs is being suss on his socials (which wouldn’t be a big deal for any player other than Diggs). So, that leads me to… A.J. Brown. Brown balled out in his first year with the Eagles, posting a career-best 88-1,496-11 stat line. He stayed healthy all season, regularly destroying defenders while averaging 17.0 YPR (WR5) and racking up 543 yards after the catch (WR2). The Eagles won’t face as many tomato cans in 2023, but the Brown to Hurts connection is up to any task. He’s an automatic top-10 pick at the position.”

Yahoo! Fantasy

Like many things in life, the smallest decision can completely change your trajectory. Liz’s stint at Yahoo Fantasy almost veered off course to NFL Network. Liz tested for a fantasy analyst position with the NFL, working with the subject of Issue #3, Marcas Grant. But before she could decide, Yahoo called and said, “Don’t sign anything; just give us a beat. You don’t have to audition; we offer you the job.” She accepted on the week of her son’s 2nd birthday and began her seven-year career at Yahoo as a full-time fantasy football analyst.

When asked how she felt about landing the job at Yahoo, Liz reflects, “The first few years of my career at Yahoo [2015-2018] were some of the most joy-filled years of my career. I was so fucking proud of myself, the work, the product, and the company.” Liz had worked from blogging in 2009 to grace the screens and stages on behalf of Yahoo Fantasy Football in five years. To say that was validating is an understatement. But to say that Liz had made it is also short-sighted because she was just getting started.

At Yahoo, Liz was a regular Fantasy Football LIVE cast member, continued writing expert analyses, produced video content, and contributed to the weekly Fearless Forecast player projections. Her role at Yahoo also took her talents to live audiences as well. Liz was a panelist for the National Fantasy Football Convention, Advertising Week New York, Verizon Media NewFront, and Super Bowl Media Day. In addition, interviewing and talking with former and current NFL players in front of large audiences became more common for Liz.

They culminated with her arguably most notable contribution at Yahoo, talking with current Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler on the Ekeler’s Edge video podcast. Heading into the 2021 NFL season, Liz remembers sitting in a Zoom meeting with the head of video content. He said, “I have Austin Ekeler, a producer and an editor; go make a show.” Easier said than done for something that didn’t previously exist in the space. No one had a fantasy show with a current NFL player. And not just any player but one of the best fantasy performers who is a consistent first-round pick.

Liz and Austin had great chemistry delivering weekly fantasy analysis throughout the season. Even though Austin was the star, Liz made the show a success as a host and analyst. And as the 2021 FSWA award winner for Best Short-Form Video, the industry agreed. However, as Liz’s career arc progressed at Yahoo, this show and the regular communication with Austin would be one of the things she missed the most. Unknowingly manifesting her next career move during a night out in L.A., her life would soon again be thrust into an unknown world.

Course 5 – Arroz Chaufa Peruano

As mentioned in the previous course, the Chifa cuisine began to take hold in Peru and infiltrate everyday life, so much so that Peru has its version of fried rice. Chifa is a true fusion of flavors that has begun to define Peruvian cuisine in 2023. The influx of Chinese immigrants started after the abolition of slavery in the mid-1800s. Over 100,000 Cantonese and Chinese men immigrated primarily to support the guano industry. Arroz Chaufa was born to make a meal with scraps of available meat, vegetables, and soy sauce. And since they were partly paid in sacks of rice, an easy meal was made. In Cantonese “chaufan” means fried rice, or in Spanish “arroz chaufa”.

Puro Sabor makes their house special Arroz Chaufa, traditionally with soy sauce, eggs, scallions, and a mix of beef, chicken, and shrimp. Everything is stir-fried in a wok and served like your favorite Chinese restaurant. As a descendant of Samoan and Chinese immigrants whose maternal grandfather immigrated from Canton to Samoa and opened the first Chinese restaurant, I identify with the Chifa cuisine. This is home cooking to me, and there’s a slight feeling of pride knowing a part of my culture was able to influence Liz’s culture. And as family meals were passed down in Liz’s family, so too were they in mine, and fried rice is something I am already working to pass on to my kids.

El Entremés – Liz’s favorite landing spot for a Rookie: “Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are obvious rookie breakouts. [Devon] Achane is more of a sleeper pick. A track-and-field standout at Texas A&M, the former Aggie is a blazer (4.32). He also has an awesome vision while remaining undeniably elusive, making him a nightmare to contain in space. He’ll start behind Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, but given the vets’ respective ages and injury histories, Achane could emerge as a fantasy star down the stretch.”

ESPN Fantasy

As much as Liz loved her time at Yahoo, everything eventually ended. Or circulates in a 7-year cycle. And after seven years at Yahoo, the stars began aligning again. As Liz entered the last year of her contract, she covered the Super Bowl in Downtown L.A. After a long day, she and a colleague met for drinks at Cabra—a fantastic Peruvian restaurant by chef Stefanie Izard (a fellow Peruvian Chicagoan).

It sits atop The Hoxton Hotel, perfectly within view of the ESPN building. Its red sign lit up against the night sky like a beacon signaling for Liz. She thought for the first time, “You know what? I think I can do it”. And when she returned with her husband Joel for a date night weeks later, they toasted about a future opportunity. Commemorating the occasion with a photo of them toasting glasses and the red ESPN sign in the background.

It was a simple idea for the future not rooted in any concrete opportunity, as this was in February, and Liz’s contract was up in August. Previously Liz had always wanted to renew, but she was ready to investigate what was next this year. She hadn’t received any other offers, but as the summer approached, certain events started to play out. Most notably, Matthew Berry decided to leave ESPN for NBC Sports. This left a vacuum and potential opportunity for Liz to grab hold of. And with a simple manifestation months earlier, it all worked in her favor, and Liz became the newest fantasy and sports betting analyst to join ESPN in August 2022.

It’s not to say that Liz was hired to replace Mr. TMR, but she’s done an excellent job filling those shoes. Six months following that cheers in front of the ESPN sign, Liz drove Downtown every Tuesday during the NFL season to shoot a fantasy segment on SportsCenter with Ashley Brewer. The first time there was a fantasy segment on SportsCenter L.A., helping ESPN build something that did not exist in their portfolio. Liz was already making an impact from the jump and making regular appearances on Fantasy Football Now and Fantasy Focus Football. As always, she delivered exceptional analysis and advice through written, auditory, and video content weekly.

ESPN came calling because of Liz’s experience in the fantasy football game; she started creating her path by stepping out of her comfort zone. The beauty of working for a larger company is the opportunities she didn’t have access to before. In 2023, Liz will begin covering Formula 1 racing and the WNBA. Since ESPN signed a multi-year contract with Formula 1 last year, Liz can provide betting analysis to a growing sport. After all, she is admittedly a Lewis Hamilton stan. And the WNBA is a sport that Liz has been pushing for more coverage for years. Thankfully ESPN created a WNBA fantasy game last year, and Liz will start creating content around it. Always one to never feel uncomfortable because she’s never been comfortable anywhere, Liz continues to build her world.

Course 6 – Tacu Tacu

Like many ethnic cuisines, some of the best dish creations are out of necessity. Either to make the best out of or to save and prolong the little you had. The final course of our meal demonstrates another ingenious way to use leftovers and brings us another dish from a foreign influence. Tacu Tacu is an example of ‘cocina criolla,’ which comes from the cuisine created by the enslaved Africans brought to Peru pre-1800s. Once again, mixing traditional cooking with new local flavors like aji de amarillo.

Tacu tacu was their attempt to use leftover rice and beans by mixing them with garlic, onion, and aji. Everything is sauteed in a pan and mashed together to form an oblong patty. Traditionally it’s served with a fried egg and fried plantain. But as the dish grew in popularity, so did the regional variations, and now there are many different ways to make the dish, what’s added to it, or what it’s served with. It can be completely vegetation, lentils substituted for beans, or served with steak on top. The options are varied and truly represent a culture that makes the best out of combining two things.

The Quechuan origin of the word tacu tacu (‘takuy’) means to mix two things together. As we’ve seen in Peruvian cuisine and Liz’s life, both do an excellent job of taking what they have and making their world out of it.

El Entremés – Liz’s favorite sleeper for 2023: “It has to be Juwan Johnson… and not just because he’s a tight end. Deployed via the slot for nearly 30% of his snaps (TE7), Johnson emerged as a legit red zone weapon for the Saints in 2022. Given Alvin Kamara’s legal woes and noting the dearth of pass-catchers in New Orleans, Johnson figures to see solid volume again this coming season. But, of course, it also doesn’t hurt that his new QB has a penchant for leaning on the position.”

Creating Her Own World

The theme of this lunch and Liz’s life is what you are given and making your world out of it. Peruvian cuisine is a fusion of cultures and flavors to create a unique taste. Liz’s life has been a fusion of two paths, starting its unique journey. From the beginning, she’s been an outsider riding the line between two cultures, drawing the best from both worlds and empowering her to take risks and find emerging opportunities.

Instead of letting any shortcomings hold her back, Liz reinvented herself at every stage of the game. Never allowing herself to feel uncomfortable, she has adapted. She believes your narrative is not destined and that you are in control; Liz sees failures as opportunities for future success. Not only do you learn from those failures, but it makes you a more interesting person. Quoting Bruce Arians, “The most interesting people come from the most detoured places.” Liz’s life has been full of detours.

Those detours will be less frequent now that Liz has landed at ESPN with a future full of possibilities. Liz prides herself on being a mom. After all, that’s the world she has created entirely for herself – her family. From the beginning of her fantasy career, Liz has been a content-creating machine. To maintain that balance, she has to set boundaries. There’s no football on Saturdays as that’s “Mom’s Day.” But as soon as the kids go to bed and she’s had some time to hang with Joel, Liz retreats to her guest house to work late and prep for Sunday’s show. She is constantly grinding.

Even though Liz is a working mom, her tenacity for football and her place in this industry will never be denied. To say that Liz holds her own in a field of primarily white men is an understatement. She’s quick to clap back on live TV when challenged and when the trolls come for her. “My husband Joel does all the cooking in the house. I could be better in the kitchen. So when the trolls are like, ‘go back to the kitchen and make me a sandwich,’ I’m like, well, guess what, you can have this sh*t sandwich.” After eating with Liz today, I wouldn’t expect anything else. At her core, Liz is passionate. She is passionate about her career, talent, future, and family.

El Entremés – Free Nuggets of advice for fantasy football players: “Do a bunch of mocks. Make some mistakes. Learn from them. Have fun. And don’t be a jerk.”

Thank you again for stopping in to break bread with The Undroppables. Thanks to my co-host Wai Sallas, graphic designer Fantasy Dukes, and our editor Derek Fuchs. And, of course, to the excellent subject of this issue Liz Loza. Please ensure you’re following Liz on social media and catch her on the Fantasy Focus Football podcast and Fantasy Football Now on ESPN.social media and catch her on the Fantasy Focus Football podcast and Fantasy Football Now on ESPN. We look forward to having you dine with us again next time.

Tony Pollard | Ultimate Dynasty Trade Asset

The NFL Combine is over, Pro Days are starting to wind down, and you promised your significant other that you would take them out to a nice date night since you hit on some nice plays on PrizePicks – thanks to some plays from UN Bets. Enjoying the evening as you get that alert on your phone from Sleeper and look instinctively, not realizing that this alert will soon engulf your whole evening’s thoughts and focus.

It’s a trade offer! Knowing this league, it’s probably some soon-to-be-cut player and a 2024 4th-round pick for my Travis Etienne. But you’ll need to see the offer. You open the alert to find that someone wants to send you Tony Pollard?! Were you even looking for a running back? Does this put you over the top? You look up and exclaim in a flutter, “I need to use the restroom!” as you get up before hearing acknowledgment opening three different calculators and articles tabs to ensure there was no other injury news. You have to take your time looking at the ultimate dynasty trade asset.

Tony Pollard – 2022 Review

Tony Pollard had a career year in 2022, with highs in rushes (193), rushing yards (1,007), rushing touchdowns (9), targets (55), receiving yards (371), and receiving touchdowns (3). Ezekial Elliott being limited with injuries helped increase his usage, but I do not want to take away from how fantasy Tony looked on the field. Unfortunately, all of this was capped by a broken leg in the San Francisco playoff game that has been stated will not affect his 2023 outlook.

Batman is my all-time favorite comic book hero. That goes to say I love all the villains that he battles in and out of Gotham City. So when considering how to evaluate Tony, I considered Harvey Dent, better known as Two-Face. A man living his life with his decisions with a coin flip emulates my exact sentiment on how I feel Tony Pollard is right now as a dynasty asset – a coin flip. You can talk me in either direction, and I would be happy to take it.

Heads – The Good

New Offensive Coordinator

Brian Schottenheimer has replaced Kellen Moore in Dallas, and the only benefactor in that offense will be Tony Pollard. Schottenheimer has generally favored the workhorse RB and produced some top running offenses during his stints as offensive coordinators with Seattle Seahawks, then St. Louis Rams, and New York Jets. Lead to him having top fantasy finishes for running backs for players like Thomas Jones, Shonn Greene, Stephen Jackson, and Chris Carson; most recently, Tony Pollard is in line to join these players with a chance to have 250+ rushes and 50+ targets on the season, finally.

Limited Touches

People will state that Tony is getting up in age as a knock against him. There is some truth to the age cliff for running backs, but historical context should be considered. Much of the data shows that these running backs had years of high volume usage early in their careers, and their attempts lead to a better predictor when their “cliff” hits rather than their age. Due to these reasons, Pollard should have a few more years of high production.

Elite Running Back

Tony is an elite talent in the NFL right now. PFF graded him as the 4th best RB in the NFL with a 90.2 overall grade. Watching games last year will tell you he deserved to be a workhorse in that offense, but Ezekiel Elliott’s contract forced Dallas to play him causing the split between them.

Contract Year

I am a big believer in the contract year for players; it is one of the biggest motivators for players to perform. Unfortunately, the franchise tag was used on Tony this year, and even though that money is guaranteed, his future with any team is not, and he will want to prove he is worth another deal. I like to factor this in when evaluating players looking for some upside on their yearly output when doing rankings, which you can find here at The Undroppables.

Tails – The Bad

RBs are not Assets in Dynasty

The RB position is something other than what you need to trade for in most cases. Youth will always be king, and the only time you should be trading for a running back in a dynasty is if you are indeed all in on a championship run. One of the long-term strategies in a dynasty is to trade away running backs on rebuilding teams first. I am not calling this necessarily “bad,” but this depends on how your team is positioned in your league. For example, suppose you are in a league with long-time dynasty managers. In that case, it will be tough to move Tony in a league with managers knowing that acquiring him comes with a higher risk with lower ROI, where they would instead use the pick on the younger running back in the upcoming draft.

Market Price is Too High

You may hate or love them, but trade calculators are one of the most popular tools in fantasy football. Looking at his KeepTradeCut value, Tony has propelled and then plateaued as a low-end RB1 since he took over the Dallas Cowboys backfield. The slight injury dip might have been the cause of the value change. There are several other calculators, rankings, and trade values you can use (a significant part of the problem if you ask me) that will show you where Tony ranks, and you will have one that you may prefer but understand that most will have him up high now.

Fear of Competition

Do you see that tiny dip at the end of the screenshot of KTC above? That is the fear of everyone thinking of who Dallas will draft in the upcoming NFL Draft. Bijan Robinson has been linked to the Dallas Cowboys as a popular landing spot, with them letting Ezekiel Elliott walk and them wanting to run the ball more. Plus, franchise tagging Pollard means they could split carries between Bijan and Tony, not hurt themselves financially, and then let Pollard ny walk next year. There are a lot of what-ifs in fantasy football, and this is a definite risk in buying before the NFL Draft. If the Cowboys don’t draft an RB that threatens Pollards carries, imagine how that chart will look in August…

Recent Injury

There is plenty to fear with injuries, especially with the position and as players get older. I am not one of them, but most people love to point out that an injured player must either come with a discount or be scared away completely. Keep this in mind when negotiating with people, but there is always a concern with players coming back from injury.

Personal Conclusion

After looking at each side of the coin, you might wonder where I stand. I am all in on Tony Pollard, and here are some trades I have done personally to acquire him where I did not have him already.

I think the Schottenheimer hire makes him a prime candidate to get the workhorse role that he has needed, and the limited touches so far in his career mean he has plenty of juice, and the contract year is the cherry on top.  The injury doesn’t scare me, but the NFL Draft certainly has me hoping the Cowboys don’t screw this up for me.

The Art of Dynasty | Chapter 12 (Roster Crunch)

Building a dynasty fantasy football team requires strategic thinking and football acumen similar to planning a long military campaign. You must intimately understand your leaguemates’ rosters and tendencies, diligently prepare for the rookie draft and waiver wire, and thoughtfully craft a balanced yet versatile roster aligned to your vision. Knowing when to push all chips to the table for a title run or temporarily rebuild for sustained excellence is equally critical. The finest dynasty owners combine sharp situational analysis with statistical rigor and old-fashioned football study to construct juggernauts that dominate their leagues for years.

This guide outlines core tenets to help you architect a formidable roster poised for both immediate and enduring success. By internalizing essential dynasty strategies around planning, preparation, roster construction, and pivoting between competing goals, you too can rule over your leaguemates year after year like a battle-tested emperor of old.

  1. Startup Drafts
  2. Roster Construction
  3. Ideal Archetypes
  4. Ship Chasing
  5. Iron Bank
  6. Rookie Pick Values
  7. Rookie Drafts
  8. Trading
  9. Roster Management
  10. Bayesian Inference
  11. Startup Supreme
  12. Roster Crunch
  13. Trade Assessment
  14. Productive Struggle
  15. Game Theory
  16. Startup Trades & Pick Swaps
  17. Winning the Offseason
  18. Rebuild Roadmap
  19. Revanche
  20. Kingdom Come

If you executed the Startup Supreme strategy or loaded up the Iron Bank, then you likely face a roster crunch.

A roster crunch is simply when you have too many players and picks to fit onto your roster. For example, you may have rosters set at 26 players and have 10 picks in the current draft class. This leaves you with a situation where you need to drop at least 10 players from your team to make the rookies fit. I’ve talked about leverage often, and in these situations, you undoubtedly lack the advantage and sharp leaguemates will notice. Here’s how to strategically navigate a roster crunch and turn it into a position of strength:

Trade Up

This is the most basic trick in the book. Packaging multiple picks to move up to nab the best in the rookie class. This works best if the rebuilding teams lack draft picks and have several areas of need. The selling point to them is that you are helping them fill holes. Pitch this as an opportunity for them to move back and gain draft capital.

  1. Identify Targets: Focus on teams that are in clear rebuild mode. They are often more willing to trade down for quantity over quality.
  2. Craft Your Offer: Package late first-round picks with second and third-round picks to move into the top tier of the draft. The aim is to secure elite talent that can provide immediate impact or high future upside.
  3. Negotiation Strategy: Emphasize the value of quantity for the rebuilding team. Highlight how your offer provides them with more shots at acquiring multiple foundational pieces.

Target the Weak

There’s always going to be teams in your league that are bottom feeders, lacking any semblance of a competitive squad. Those are your first targets. Look at their rosters and identify productive players you can pick off using mid-round draft capital. If you can package a few 2nd and 3rd round picks for RB2 or WR2 veterans, then that’s an easy move to make. If you have several 1sts and play in a Superflex league, then target elite QB options by tossing out offers that include 2-3 1sts plus some 2nds.

  1. Scout Bottom Feeders: Evaluate teams that have been consistently underperforming. Look for productive veterans who can still contribute but are of little use to a rebuilding squad.
  2. Mid-Round Capital: Use your excess 2nd and 3rd round picks to acquire these veterans. This can often be enough to tempt rebuilding teams looking to gather draft assets.
  3. Elite Targets in Superflex: In Superflex leagues, prioritize acquiring elite QBs by bundling multiple first-round picks and a few second-round picks. These trades can dramatically shift your team’s competitive edge.

Get Ahead of the Cliff

Look at your own roster and see if you have players, particularly RBs, who are nearing the age cliff. It might be worth packaging some of your older players and sending them off to contenders (if you’re not very competitive). If you can move these aging players for younger options and/or future picks, then you can create space for this year’s rookies.

  1. Age Analysis: Regularly assess the age and performance trajectory of your players, focusing on those nearing the age cliff, particularly running backs who typically decline faster.
  2. Sell High: Identify contenders in need of experienced players and propose trades that offer them immediate value in exchange for younger talent or future picks.
  3. Maximize Returns: Aim to trade aging stars while their market value remains high, ensuring you get maximum return before their performance drops significantly.

Unclog the Roster

It is very rare for a dynasty team to not have any roster cloggers. Take a hard look at your team and be honest with the evaluation of the players you don’t want to drop in fear of missing out. Chances are that WR5 option you’ve been holding out hope for or the RB bench warmer you hope will find a way onto the field will never amount to anything. Let go of those pipe dreams and let someone else waste their FAB to pick them up off waivers. This will let you make room for rookies who have much more upside.

  1. Roster Evaluation: Conduct a thorough evaluation of your roster, identifying players who are unlikely to have significant roles or upside.
  2. Tough Decisions: Be ruthless in cutting players who are not contributing meaningfully. This frees up valuable roster spots for incoming rookies with higher potential.
  3. Monitor Waivers: Keep an eye on the waiver wire post-cuts to potentially reacquire valuable players who were dropped by other teams facing similar roster crunches.

Lie In Wait

Every league has stagnant periods before rookie drafts but things tend to pick up dramatically after the NFL Draft and draft capital is settled. Stay patient and capitalize on the rookie fever when picks go on the clock. Often times, you are able to move a current year’s draft picks for future picks which help you stockpile into the future without losing value. You should look to add a kicker like an additional 3rd or 4th round pick, or even a 2nd, depending on the pick you’re sending away.

  1. Patience: Exercise patience leading up to and during the draft, knowing that trade activity often spikes when picks are on the clock.
  2. Future Capital: Look to trade current-year picks for future-year picks, adding value to your future drafts without losing immediate potential.
  3. Leverage Rookie Fever: Exploit rookie fever by selling picks when the demand is highest, typically during the draft itself. Add sweeteners like additional mid-round picks to maximize returns.

Maximize Options

If the above options aren’t working out, then you smash the best players available during the rookie draft. Make a push to swap late 3rds and 4ths for picks next year. There are usually a few teams that will want them. Patience is key. Hopefully, the league allows you some time during camp to watch the dust settle so you can decide who to keep. Regardless, there’s probably a decent chance you will have a few players to drop. Scrutinize players at the end of your bench. When will you ever play them?

  1. Draft Best Available: When all else fails, draft the best players available, focusing on those with the highest upside and trade potential.
  2. Future Swap: Actively seek opportunities to trade late-round picks for future-year picks, thereby continually replenishing your draft capital.
  3. Final Cuts: As training camp progresses, closely monitor player performances and be prepared to make final cuts to ensure your roster is optimized for the season.

Having a roster crunch is one of my favorite problems to have in dynasty. It means you’ve been building the right way so don’t change your approach and keep stacking value. By strategically managing your roster, leveraging trades, and making informed decisions, you can turn a potential problem into a powerful advantage for your dynasty team.

Christian Watson | Garrett Wilson Arbitrage

In gambling, the idea of Arbitrage is making a bet where you are guaranteed to make a profit. This is done by shopping lines and finding mispricing to shift the odds in your favor. Dynasty is a game of variance, and many of the same principles apply. In a game where a one-game playoff typically determines leagues, the best team does not always win. That is why building surplus value in the form of players and future draft picks is essential to position your team as a lasting contender. The idea is that if you can find similar production at lower prices, you can use that surplus value to manage risk in the form of draft picks (Rather than thinking of picks as future players, think of them as a currency to buy current NFL players). However, trading away these young, fun receivers entering their prime is not easy. As a result, I have created a model to determine if receivers are undervalued or overvalued when compared to the Keep Trade Cut value. In doing so, I found two Year 2 receivers with similar underlying rookie efficiency stats and drastically different price points. I will be laying out why I will be tiering down from Garrett Wilson to get Christian Watson Plus in all my leagues. 

Valuation

This opinion will be unpopular, but Garrett Wilson is drastically overvalued in dynasty fantasy football. With a WR5 ranking on Keep Trade Cut, the market has him projected for 16.7 ppg next season to be considered at fair value. That would be a 35% increase from his rookie season, resulting in a WR9 finish in 2022. Therefore, according to the model, he should be valued as the WR9, in the same tier as Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith. This may not seem like a drastic change, but it is a difference of 959 points in KTC, putting his fair value at 5346 instead of 6305. In comparison, Christian Watson is priced in by the market for 13.3 ppg next season, which would be in line with the last eight games of the 2022 season if you adjust to a more reasonable TD rate (4 TDs in 8 games instead of 8). 

Volume & Efficiency 

Let’s compare the underlying metrics of these two rookie seasons. It is hard to compare market share stats, as Watson struggled with injuries early in the season and was not on the field nearly enough. However, per-route stats can help smooth this out (Sample size warning: Watson only ran 270 routes versus Wilson’s 596). Here’s a comparison of their rookie numbers below. 


Watson earned higher targets per route run with 0.24, versus Wilson at 0.23, and a higher yard per route run, with 2.26 vs. 1.85. Watson also added 80 yards on the ground. However, Wilson had a higher PFF grade and posted a 22% target share throughout the season. I know what you are thinking; Wilson dealt with the poor quarterback play, which is why his numbers look worse. However, the pure volume of the Jets’ offense made up for the poor efficiency and boosted his overall fantasy performance. Here are the 2022 season stats for the Jets and Packers.


The Jets passed for more yards and more often than the Packers in 2022. It is reasonable to project an improvement in touchdowns from the Jets’ offense in 2023, but a drastic increase in attempts, pass yards, and pass rate is unlikely. I have seen people on the Twitter streets using splits without Zach Wilson at quarterback to justify his current price. For context, the Jets averaged 46 pass attempts per game in these games, with 265 passing yards. That 17-game pace would have led the NFL in attempts and been 7th in the NFL in Pass yards. These splits are incredibly skewed due to negative game scripts, and I believe projecting the Jets to lead the NFL in attempts and being a top 7 team in passing yards is a poor process – even with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

Conversely, the Packers already saw a significant decrease in passing production in 2022. There could be a few factors for this. One is the loss of Davante Adams. Another is Rodgers’ thumb injury, which he played through during the season. Because of these already below-league-average numbers in 2022, the decline in passing production with Jordan Love under center is likely overestimated by the dynasty community going into 2023. 

The Year 2 Bump

I did a quick look at the last five years of 1st and 2nd round receivers and how their targets per routes run differed from Year 1 to Year 2, who ran over 250 routes in Year 1, to see if it was reasonable to expect a big jump in production from either receiver in Year 2.


As you can see above, 1st and 2nd round receivers have been a similar bet over the past five years to see improvement in Year 2. However, if you filter further to receivers who posted over a 0.20 in Year 1, you get slightly less encouraging results.


Key names that failed to increase their target rate in their second season include Calvin Ridley, Brandon Aiyuk, Elijah Moore, Chase Claypool, and CeeDee Lamb. It is also important to note that the increase is typically minimal in Year 2 on a per-route basis. Due to this, I think it is important to slow down on the Year 2 projection for Garrett Wilson, especially when the number of passing attempts will likely not increase. 

Projection

Based on these assumptions above, I came up with optimistic projections for these two receivers in Year 2. 


I tried to be as optimistic as possible for Wilson and neutral on Watson to prove my point. As you can see above, I got close to the 16.8 ppg that the market has priced for Wilson. However, here are the assumptions for that to happen. 

  • The Jets stay top 6 in pass attempts
  • Wilson does see a 0.02 in targets per route run
  • His catch percentage improves from 60% to 70% with Rodgers
  • Wilson sees a 10% increase in yards per route run

As I have been attempting to point out, Wilson is already priced at his best-case scenario for 2023, with a lot of room for a letdown if he does not improve his efficiency in 2023 or if the Jets regress to a league-average pass rate. On the other hand, the bullish projections for Watson include barely above-average pass attempts, with a decrease in YPRR from his Year 1 total due to an increased sample. The difference is that Watson is not priced at his ceiling, which allows room for upside.

Risk Management

The dynasty fantasy football community does a good job of understanding and pricing the risk of older players based on the age cliff and injury risk. Unfortunately, the community simultaneously does a poor job of understanding the risks of younger players. The reality of a dynasty is that Garrett Wilson will not be on your team for ten years. The game is very unpredictable. Injuries happen every year; players retire early, players get in trouble, and situations change. Those risks will always exist. As I’ve outlined above, I believe Christian Watson and Garrett Wilson have similar probabilities of being a WR1/WR2 in fantasy football in 2023, but one is drastically cheaper. Tiering down and acquiring additional draft capital helps you mitigate these risks and stay a sustained contender. Remember, the best players to sell are the ones that are not easy to do so.

Polarization of Wide Receiver Prospects | Quentin Johnston

A pass catcher’s first home impacts their near-term development/production.

Players have tipped strengths & weaknesses since the dawn of time (except Zay Flowers- I’m told he’s already Antonio Brown). Weighing those variables help determine the kind of value you’re dealing with.

The degree to which this yin-yang is stretched births polarizing names throughout the draft process, often touted as “boom or bust” prospects.

Nobody has an issue swinging for the fences in later rounds, but if early assets are at stake? Be certain that any Achilles heel(s) inevitably garner front-page news.

This year’s award goes to WR Quentin Johnston.

Standing out gets all the attention

Johnston’s traits & athleticism aren’t just noticeable on the field, they’re exacerbated amongst this “petite” draft class.

Initially considered to be this year’s clear WR1, Johnston earned legit top-ten hype while TCU awaited their national title fate against Georgia.

QJ caught one of three targets on the *big* stage. Following that performance, he was a fresh face many began their WR evaluations with.

As those from Twitter-world know, there’s been plenty of negative discourse ever since.

Not to say his main criticisms aren’t valid, even my opinion has regressed. But if the fading has yet to reach equilibrium (real life or fantasy), Johnston is nearing value territory.

Organic YAC

Quentin Johnston’s combination of size, speed, and explosiveness not only make him a rarity within this year’s class, but also amongst previous names as well.

Even when we “isolate” out schemed production, he’s amongst a favorable group of wideouts that continue to headline NFL Sundays.

Accounting for screens (an inflating concept), the three closest guys in the 2023 group mainly produced from the slot, another YAC booster over the middle/shorter depths.

Here’s what happened when Johnston actually moved around:

The benefit of QJ dropping towards the later parts of the first round are a “better” crop of teams (who are in a competitive window) that would, logically, put forth the required effort to maximize his strengths.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is my WR1- don’t get it twisted. But it’s silly to label Quentin Johnston as the next Reagor or Kevin White yet already comp Zay Flowers to Deebo or AB.

You’ll find plenty of guys in NFL position rooms covering the essentials. There aren’t many with Quentin Johnston’s size, traits & production getting discarded like he has throughout the draft cycle.

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