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The Art of Dynasty | Chapter 11 (Startup Supreme)

Chalk
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The Art of Dynasty | Chapter 11 (Startup Supreme)

Building a dynasty fantasy football team requires strategic thinking and football acumen similar to planning a long military campaign. You must intimately understand your leaguemates’ rosters and tendencies, diligently prepare for the rookie draft and waiver wire, and thoughtfully craft a balanced yet versatile roster aligned to your vision. Knowing when to push all chips to the table for a title run or temporarily rebuild for sustained excellence is equally critical. The finest dynasty owners combine sharp situational analysis with statistical rigor and old-fashioned football study to construct juggernauts that dominate their leagues for years.

This guide outlines core tenets to help you architect a formidable roster poised for both immediate and enduring success. By internalizing essential dynasty strategies around planning, preparation, roster construction, and pivoting between competing goals, you too can rule over your leaguemates year after year like a battle-tested emperor of old.

  1. Startup Drafts
  2. Roster Construction
  3. Ideal Archetypes
  4. Ship Chasing
  5. Iron Bank
  6. Rookie Pick Values
  7. Rookie Drafts
  8. Trading
  9. Roster Management
  10. Bayesian Inference
  11. Startup Supreme
  12. Roster Crunch
  13. Trade Assessment
  14. Productive Struggle
  15. Game Theory
  16. Startup Trades & Pick Swaps
  17. Winning the Offseason
  18. Rebuild Roadmap
  19. Revanche
  20. Kingdom Come

In Chapter 1, we discussed the strategy of approaching dynasty fantasy football startup drafts. The goal is to trade back and draft players ranked and grouped in tiers. By moving back in a draft, you gain value and draft capital while still being able to select productive players. With the recent reset in dynasty, our methodology may stay the same, but the focus shifts to embrace a short-term productive struggle defined by a first-year punt backed with a treasure trove of rookie picks and young players.

Remember that these are general guidelines for an optimal draft. The most important thing to keep in mind is to not chase the perfect draft, let it happen. Put in the work and effort to make it happen but don’t throw away value just to get younger or accumulate picks. You have to play the board and let the value drop to you. Set trade traps, draft bait, proactively and consistently reach out to managers. Even if all the chips fall perfectly into place, all you are guaranteed is having a ton of upside and draft capital with improved odds of long-term success.

Here are the core elements of a perfect dynasty fantasy football startup draft aka Startup Supreme:

🌱 Average age of roster ≤ 25

✈️ ≥ two young QBs (Konami with upside + safe QB2)

🔨 Backup RBs and veteran WRs

💰 ≥ four 2022 rookie picks (Ideally two 1sts, two 2nds)

💎 ≥ six 2023 1sts

25 to Life

When drafting a new dynasty team, there are generally two schools of thought – Win Now and Go Young. There are advantages to both so a combination is recommended.

Start the draft by targeting young elite options, starting with QBs in Superflex (if you are not able to move back). If you were able to move back from rounds 1/2, then look to draft elite young WRs early on. Aiming for the optimal startup draft means sacrificing the elite RBs like Swift, Harris, and Williams early this year. As you get to the later rounds, focus your picks on veterans with starter upside – backup RBs and depth WRs who are in high-powered offenses. The end result of your startup draft would be a roster with an average age of 25 or under that is packed with upside – a mix of young players, backup RBs, and veteran WRs.

  1. Target Young Elite Options
    • Early Rounds: If drafting in Superflex and unable to move back, start with young elite QBs.
    • Move Back Strategy: If moving back from rounds 1/2, target elite young WRs early on.
    • Avoid Elite RBs Early: Avoid drafting elite RBs like Swift, Harris, and Williams early this year.
  2. Focus on Veterans with Upside
    • Later Rounds: Focus picks on veterans with starter upside, backup RBs, and depth WRs in high-powered offenses.
    • Balanced Roster: Aim for a roster with an average age of 25 or under, packed with upside – a mix of young players, backup RBs, and veteran WRs.

Flight Club

Quarterbacks are critical cornerstones in Superflex leagues, especially those with 6 point passing TDs. When you look at the current dynasty fantasy football rankings, there are distinct cut-offs at the tier breaks and as you pass QB20 it becomes slim quickly. The 2022 rookie class does not present many quarterback prospects either. Securing two quarterbacks with at least 3 to 4 years of runway left gives your team enough window to build with the next two draft classes and build an ultra-competitive team with staying power. One of those QBs needs to be a Konami (i.e., Allen, Kyler, Lamar, Deshaun, Lance, Fields).

In most of the leagues that I play in, QBs are hard to come by and managers often want a ransom in return, which often cripples your team in the short and long term. Target quality QBs on rookie contracts or fresh off extensions before it’s too late and you’re praying Carson Wentz falls to you. More runway = more time to take off.

  1. Secure Young QBs
    • Long-Term Viability: Secure two quarterbacks with at least 3 to 4 years of runway left. This gives your team enough window to build with the next two draft classes.
    • Target Konami QBs: One of these QBs should be a Konami (i.e., Allen, Kyler, Lamar, Deshaun, Lance, Fields).
  2. Avoid Desperation
    • Quality Over Quantity: Target quality QBs on rookie contracts or fresh off extensions before you’re left with limited options.
    • Strategic Picks: More runway means more time to build a competitive team.

Trade Bait

Backup running backs who have starter potential and veteran wide receivers with top 36-40 upside are players you want to target in the middle and late rounds. The Startup Supreme strategy is viable because of the depth at RB and WR given the influx of talent coming in over the next few years. When we look at startup drafts in two years, many of these players will either be a roster clogger or out of the league.

The plan is to draft backup RBs and veteran WRs and hold them into the season, waiting for the opportunity to trade them away (i.e., injury, breakout). This will undoubtedly open a trade window and you move at market value, flipping for rookie picks and an easy profit. These are tradeable assets that will accumulate value as we get to Weeks 10-16 of the fantasy football season. When you trade them, you will drop points and continue your legitimate tank to the 2023 1.01.

  1. Draft Depth Players
    • Backup RBs and Veteran WRs: Focus on drafting backup RBs and veteran WRs.
    • Trade Window: Hold them into the season, waiting for opportunities (e.g., injury, breakout) to trade them away.
  2. Maximize Value
    • Trade Opportunities: These players become tradeable assets that will accumulate value as we get to Weeks 10-16 of the fantasy football season.
    • Legitimate Tank: When you trade them, you will drop points and continue your legitimate tank to the 2023 1.01.

Iron Bank

How do you reap a harvest? Plant a bunch of seeds. It’s a pretty simple concept but seeding is vital in the startup world – fantasy or Silicon Valley. In dynasty fantasy football, our seeds are rookie picks, so we need as many as possible.

As noted in Chapter 6, the value of rookie picks in dynasty fantasy football follows a cycle. One of the tried-and-true lessons of startup drafts that include rookie picks is that it is fairly difficult to “reach” for a rookie pick as long as you’re within reason. This is because all rookie picks will inevitably increase in value when they are on the clock. It is a matter of time and patience to plant the seed and watch it grow to either profit or a prospect.

Additionally, there has been a reset in the dynasty landscape and the dust has not settled. A deep (but not elite) 2022 class will be followed by a 2023 class that is stacked with top-shelf prospects. It is possible that the dynasty RB1 in 2023 is not in the league yet. These are the seismic shifts in the long game that you need to invest in so you can build a foundation with the best young players possible. Another note – a year ago many, if not most, confidently stated that the 2022 draft class was worthless. Look around and you won’t hear that sentiment anymore. Be early to the market and avoid overcorrections.

  1. Accumulate Rookie Picks
    • Cycle of Value: The value of rookie picks follows a cycle. It’s difficult to “reach” for a rookie pick as long as you’re within reason.
    • Increased Value: All rookie picks will inevitably increase in value when they are on the clock.
  2. Be Early to the Market
    • Dynasty Landscape Reset: The 2022 class is deep, and the 2023 class is stacked with top-shelf prospects.
    • Future Projections: Invest early to build a foundation with the best young players possible.

Thanos

Speaking of being early to the market, it is no secret that the 2023 rookie class could be game-changing with the number of talented prospects set to join the league. Arms races have already begun across many leagues as managers vie for as many 2023 picks as possible.

A startup draft allows everyone a chance to collect 2023 picks, although it will be much more difficult in practice. But we still try (aggressively with prudence). Regardless of the draft class, the more picks you have in the first two rounds, the more powerful is your hand and leverage. Much like what it took Thanos to collect all six Infinity Stones, obtaining six 2023 rookie picks is a near-impossible task in most leagues. Every trade is an opportunity to squeeze a rookie pick out of your trade partner. The less you ask in return aside from the pick, the more likely you are likely to get a 2023 1st.

Luck is where preparation meets opportunity – so be prepared to take advantage of league mates who want to (1) discount rookie picks; (2) get their guy; and/or (3) win now. There is usually someone willing to trade away future picks. Once someone makes a run for a 2022 title, others may chase. You should be DM’ing your leaguemates throughout the draft, kicking tires, turning over stones. The people who complain that they are not getting deals are those who aren’t working. You need to be aggressive and attack the board early.

  1. Aggressive Acquisition
    • Collect Picks: A startup draft allows everyone a chance to collect 2023 picks, although it will be much more difficult in practice.
    • Leverage Trades: Every trade is an opportunity to squeeze a rookie pick out of your trade partner.
  2. Preparation and Opportunity
    • Aggressive Strategy: Be prepared to take advantage of league mates who want to discount rookie picks or win now.
    • Early Attacks: Be aggressive and attack the board early.

Unicorns Exist

I was recently able to capture the unicorn – the perfect startup draft – in a 12-team Superflex dynasty league. Your first reaction is probably that it was a Mickey Mouse league with a bunch of fish, but it is actually one filled with sharps and experienced gamers. Feel free to browse the draftboard. Over the course of nine trades during the startup draft, I was able to draft this team which shows that it is possible. The goal now is to slowly trade away all of the veteran players, leaving only my young QBs and an initial set of 2022 rookies. This will allow me to free fall to 1.01 to draft a 21-year-old bellcow RB.

🌱 Average age of roster = 24.75 years

startup-supreme starters 1startup-supreme bench-2

perfect-startup-picks 2perfect-startup-picks 1

Under the Radar | 2022 Prospects to Watch Pt. 3

Chalk
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Under the Radar | 2022 Prospects to Watch Pt. 3

Keontay Ingram

Ingram has a 3-down physical build and pass-catching ability you want to see in a sleeper prospect. The problem is that needs to work on his blitz pickups if he wants to see the NFL field in year one. The former Longhorn/Trojan boasts explosive speed and burst and runs aggressively. As a college recruit, Ingram was a promising prospect and showed it in his first two seasons at Texas. However, Ingram started to struggle as a junior and lost time to younger running mates, leading to a transfer to USC. However, due to a rib injury, Ingram only started in seven games at USC which further dropped his draft stock. We’re hoping for decent draft capital where he can find a role in a committee even as a change of pace back to start. With his physical tools and ability as a receiver out of the backfield, Ingram could be a major value in 3rd round of rookie drafts (I just saw him go in the 4th round recently).

David Bell

Bell is a 2nd round rookie pick and likely can’t get into the 1st round. But this makes him a rare under the radar prospect that is just a screaming value (a la Rashod Bateman and Elijah Moore last year). From an Anatomy and college production standpoint, Bell is a box checker. In the two categories where he misses, it is not by much (barely missing the thresholds of 14 YPR and 2.5 Y/TPA). Without question, Bell completely bombed the Combine and showed that Bell isn’t going to be a vertical threat. However, the concern that I have with Bell is that he may be too smooth of a route technician. His routes pop with nuance but he lacks explosiveness. Bell will be a solid NFL producer and will be fun to watch on Sundays. Wait for him to slip past the first 12 picks and be ready to smash.

Jalen Tolbert

Tolbert will not hear his name called on Day 2 of the Draft as he’s projected outside the top 100. Tolbert was a consistent small school producer in college, evidenced by his clearing of most of the Anatomy metrics for wide receivers while playing for South Alabama Jaguars. Yes, his dominator rating and team market share of receiving production are off the charts, but he posted these numbers against weak Sun Belt Conference competition. A common pitfall is to treat analytics as a black or white judgment call. We need to understand context. On tape, Tolbert shows as a physical player with good YAC ability. On the downside, Tolbert enters the league at 23 and took time to become a producer at a small school. Per Kevin Cole of PFF, Tolbert’s top comparable players include several NFL contributors – Greg Jennings, Michael Gallup, Sterling Shepard, Cedrick Wilson, and Dede Westbrook. These are not elite receivers but have provided serviceable stretches for fantasy gamers. Tolbert is currently going in the 3rd round of rookie mocks which could make him an ideal target for those looking to add depth at WR.

Unarmed Strike | Sage’s Insight

Derek Fuchs
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Unarmed Strike | Sage’s Insight

The Unarmed Strike series will be offseason series focused on dynasty and redraft fantasy football offseason strategies that are themed with Dungeon & Dragons storytelling. Follow me @FF_Derekfuchs to see when my latest articles get posted.

Sage’s Insight

Everything Has Changed…

The morning starts with a warm glow from the window of your room at the tavern. You feel it embrace your body as you begin to wake up from the previous night’s activities. As your body becomes overrun with regret and nausea from the endless amounts of ales, you look for something to chase it away. An even warmer ale sits next to your bed, and you contemplate consuming as much as you can to get rid of the self-inflicted flu you gave yourself. Before you can even take the first sip, you see outside, and the world you knew when you went to sleep has completely changed…

In my previous article, I mentioned waiting and seeing how the trading and free agency goes to start evaluating your roster. Looking at the chaos that has been the start of the 2022 free agency, I am incredibly thankful if you decided to take my advice. Several big-name signings and trades will impact fantasy, and it is up to you to determine how each one will change how you handle this offseason.

In this article, we will go over some topics that the offseason changes will impact your rosters and strategies and how to navigate them. Then, you will act as a Sage and use your Insight checks to understand and gather as much information as possible to make the best-informed decisions.

Market Impacts (NFL & Fantasy Football)

The first thing you notice is the bustling crowds of townsfolks running between different tents. A traveling market has been set up overnight, and the people are active with the trading. The town went from a quiet, desolate community into a raging arms race with everyone trying to acquire what they needed for the upcoming seasons. You run down to see your crew noticing everything as well, and you try to join the pandemonium that is going on.

For the first time in recent memory, the landscape for starting quarterbacks has never changed as much as this offseason has. Luckily, we are keeping track of these trades with our Market Watch articles by Chalk and Market Update articles by Abe.

With the trades for Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, and countless others, I am a fan of all the change and uncertainty leading into the season. We are about to change several players’ fantasy outputs and will come down to some of the better analysis and gut feelings that managers have with rostered players.

Everyone will have some substantial gut reactions to these trades, so keep that in mind when players get thrown up on trading blocks and the offers get sent out. What will happen to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett’s fantasy values with Drew Lock at quarterback? Make sure you are still evaluating your trades correctly and not over-correcting with the changing market. Everyone wants to be early when taking a risk, which is completely fine. The issue is that not everyone is ok when it doesn’t work out. Fantasy football is not about being right but being wrong less of the time.

Valuing the FOMO Effect

As you can enter the street with the town frantically gathering goods from merchants, you start to listen and pay attention to the conversations from the different transactions:
“How can this be five gold?! Just last week, it was two gold and some silver.”
“I better get the last of this bread; every other place has been out for weeks.”
“Instead of 3 gold and some silver, I’ll give you two gold and this goat in exchange for that pig and some hay?”

A woman bumps into you and apologizes; she was in a rush and wasn’t looking forward. You ask her what is going on and she looks at you puzzled like you just woke up from being asleep for years instead of hours. “Have you not heard? The end of times is upon us!”  You think, well, that certainly was not what you were expecting. But, she continues and explains that yesterday evening, a prophet traveled into town and talked about how the world would be coming to an end. You ask for the “prophet’s” name, knowing that this can’t be true. She says, “Herbert.”  Why does that name sound so familiar…..?

Fear of missing out (FOMO) is one of the biggest crazes in all market transactions, including fantasy football. Rather than investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies, we are investing in players that we think are at a low enough value that makes sense to invest in and hope they outperform their expected value. Sounds easy enough, right? The problem will be everyone’s “value” on an asset will differ from how you view someone. So the actual value is much tougher to evaluate, unlike where stocks and cryptos have actual dollar values. Fantasy football assets are all speculation and educated guessing.

A recent debate in The Undroppable’s Discord (join today by becoming a Patron) was the valuation of Rashod Bateman. I voted that he could be labeled as a “Sell” asset in dynasty fantasy football. I loved him coming out of college and thought he could easily be the top WR in the 2021 draft class if he went to the right team. However, that did not happen. The Baltimore Ravens already have a limited passing offense (2021 was a massive increase to the previous normal for them, injuries to their running backs played a factor in that decision). The passing game is already giving a decent portion to Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, and it is hard to see a third-legitimate option. However, some of the staff did say to buy if that is the case; he is incredibly talented and can easily be an alpha WR that all offenses are looking for. But, again, value is all perception.

Persuasion Check (Brokering the Deal)

It hits you, the adventure board you drunkenly glanced over last night. Herbert was the name of a false prophet that was hitting up towns and selling stolen goods for huge prices. “Where is Herbert now!?” you exclaim, hoping this could be the easiest bounty you have ever done. The traveling false prophet just so happened to come to your town you were staying at! She says she wasn’t sure and runs to the next merchant, asking if any barley was left. 

You think to yourself, where would I go if I was Herbert? You see a not-so-busy blacksmith and hastily make your way through the crowd before anyone else notices the lack of a crowd. “Hello there, sir. May I ask you a question?” He looks you up and down, possibly deciding how much money you have on you that he can get in a trade. “Of course, young man, my name is Gavin, and I have several swords and plates of armor left. Judging by your attire, you must be quite the adventurer.”  You know this to be true, but you don’t have time to go into great detail on how great you indeed are. “Where can one find Herbert now? I need to ask him some questions.”  Gavin’s face immediately changes, asking you to leave his stand. Was it something I said? Maybe how I approached him?…

Language is a powerful thing we can do. We choose our words and actions and still don’t grasp the impact they can have on other people. When it comes to trading, precisely trade offers and negotiations, language can be a massive influence from getting the deal done and destroying any chance of success of closing.

Some principles to keep in mind when negotiating and trade offers within your dynasty leagues:

League Integrity: Remember you will be with these owners for years to come, so preface your offers knowing that you will continually try to work out deals with everyone. Don’t try to burn bridges and get away with super lopsided deals. You can earn a reputation as trying to win every trade and screw others over, and then the accepted trades will go away.

Open Communication: Some deals are even won on the first offer if you are willing to explain why you are offering the trade. Be considerate that everyone’s views on players are different, and having an open dialogue can help understand where both sides need to be to get a trade done.

Needs Instead of Wants: Looking at the other owner’s rosters, you can understand a potential need they have and that you can fill with some of the depth you may have. Ask if they are looking to add to a position and start a conversation by asking who they might want or what it might take to get one of their players since you also have a need.

Enrollment Beginning

You stand, dazed by the interaction that should have been an easy exchange. You remember that there is still a bounty at hand, and you have until the end of the day to get the guy you are looking for. A horn blows in the distance; you jolt your body back to reality and look in the direction of the sound. The banner starts to rise, and you remember that there will be an open draft of new adventurers to add to your group. You need to decide if you can find Herbert on your own, or do you wait until the draft to start that journey as well…

For up-to-date Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings, check out The Undroppables Rankings!

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Market Update | Winners & Losers of the Matt Ryan Trade

Honest Abe
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Market Update | Winners & Losers of the Matt Ryan Trade

The Quarterback carousal continued with longtime Atlanta Falcon, Matt Ryan being traded to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2022 3rd round pick. Here are the winners and losers of the trade.

Winners

Michael Pittman Jr.

MJP will have a quarterback that will not try to escape when he fears fake pressure. He will now have a quarterback that can sit back and sling it accurately. I expect Pittman to have that massive breakout many, like myself, expected going into 2021. For a guy that finished top 16 in 2021, the ceiling for him is now a top 5 guy.

Frank Reich

Not many head coaches get the opportunity to have their 5th starting quarterback in 5 years, but the Colts organization have shown that have complete faith in a coach that has missed the playoffs 2 out of the last 3 seasons.

Cordarelle Patterson

With no NFL quality starting quarterback on the roster, (Marcus Mariota is a good player, but not a starting caliber), the offense will yet again run through Patterson. In 2021, Patterson got overworked and it showed in the second half. I expect the Arthur Smith and the Falcons to pace their do everything guy a little more.

Losers

Kyle Pitts

I know it’s a boring take to say the receivers from the Falcons will suffer without Matt Ryan, but it is severly going to hurt Pitts. Despite his unworldly talent, the expectations for Pitts are sky high, and without the QB play I just don’t know how I can pay up for Pitts.

Baker Mayfield

Another team that does not want the dude. He was open about saying he wanted to go to Indy, and was yet again told, “You are not wanted”. It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the former Heisman winner.

Under the Radar | 2022 Prospects to Watch Pt. 2

Chalk
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Under the Radar | 2022 Prospects to Watch Pt. 2

After further review of the 2022 class, I came across three other prospects who showed well using Jax’s Anatomy and my own process. Although players like Pickens are getting more (deserved) attention now that more dynasty gamers have done some due diligence, these players are still too low on many boards (or non-existent).

George Pickens

Fresh off a Natty, George Pickens enters the NFL Draft as an overlooked prospect in fantasy circles at the moment. It could be due to a previous ACL injury that have some concerns with his health record. His recent athletic testing numbers clearly show that he’s well beyond that injury. Pickens is a 21-year-old smooth operator who produced at an early age and shouldn’t be faded. The former Bulldog is a beast in the red zone with his physicality, awareness, and securing passes at high points. His speed masks some inefficient releases and wasted movement in his routes, but he can improve with time. Admittedly, Pickens doesn’t score well when applying Jax’s Anatomy but he also suffered a season-ending injury which definitely throws off his production numbers.

I spoke with my brother-in-arms, Blake Hampton, recently about Pickens and without giving away the results from Blake’s model, let’s just say Pickens player comps are ridiculous. Make sure to follow Blake and join our Patreon to get all of his model insights and results coming real soon.

Isaiah Weston

If you’re looking for a sleepy, small school box-checker, then Isaiah Weston is a prospect you need to dive into. But bare with me… he is an older prospect at 24 (yikes!). With that said, his production numbers are off the charts although he played at Northern Iowa. Okay, so Weston isn’t really that sexy but don’t be mistaken, Weston isn’t a player you’re looking at in the third round of rookie drafts. Depending on how things shake out over the next few weeks and the draft, he could be a nice value in the fourth round. He’s currently going undrafted in rookie mocks. Expect that to change after his Pro Day performance as he posted a 9.99 RAS score which is good for #3 all-time among wide receivers. For now, bookmark the name, and hope he finds himself in a situation where he can shine early as an undrafted free agent. Christian Watson has been flying up draft boards after blowing up the Combine and Weston is a late-round pivot/dart throw.

RAS Isaiah Weston

Charlie Kolar

The tight end out of Iowa State had scouts buzzing at his Pro Day as he showed off his athleticism and blocking. Kolar is a two-time All-American so his production has always been there but the respect hasn’t necessarily followed. As we all know, tight ends take forever to develop in the NFL but those who are athletic and can block tend to have earlier opportunities. From an Anatomy standpoint, Kolar is another box-checker, barely missing in the yards per reception category with 13.7 (where the threshold is 14). He is another older prospect but this isn’t much of a concern given the position.

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