In my piece, Profiles to Fade at The NFL Combine, I established a set of rules to serve as a guideline for Dynasty players to avoid some of the false conclusions the Combine could lead us to.
Rule #4 was “Research the Burner Wide Receivers!”
When I wrote Rule #4, I had no idea we were about to see the fastest WR class of all time crush the Combine. Eight prospects ran a sub-4.4-second 40-yard dash, and we will examine them today.
We’re doing it because elite speed creates a blind spot in rookie analysis, particularly in WR prospect models. Speed is tied to draft capital (meaning it gets overdrafted), and draft capital is heavily weighted in those models.
Draft capital should be heavily weighted. It’s the single most predictive piece of information we get. Still, as Scott Barrett correctly pointed out during the Combine, the hit rates on the fastest WRs in Combine history are notoriously low.
Don’t get me wrong; plenty of great models can analytically lead us to the safer bets. These models can provide probable returns based on historical analytical comps. Some are better than others, and here at the Undroppables, Wiz, Coder, Jax, and Chalk have created the UNscore, which I genuinely believe will be the best in the business.
That said, these models can’t give us context and don’t tell us exactly how the players play.
So, we will deconstruct what goes into many of these models, look at some of the inputs with more context, and sprinkle in my film analysis. Then, we can decide whether to avoid these players based on their impressive speed, as they may get over-drafted.
Let me phrase that another way:
We don’t want NFL draft capital to trick us into drafting a bust.
Naturally, this exercise is less about predicting success and more about avoiding landmines.
We will deploy a binary threshold test for each metric we discuss to do this. These WRs will score a one if they hit the given threshold and a zero if they do not. This is not super advanced or sophisticated, but you’ll find it telling nonetheless. We will use career numbers (to give a complete picture) and best season numbers (to show you what they were capable of once they got their footing). For your edification, career numbers are more predictive.
We’ll start with some analytical inputs; then, I’ll briefly summarize how each prospect scored in our deconstructed model with some film and contextual commentary. Lastly, we’ll force-rank this subset of players.
Before we dive into the charts, I want to point out that Jacob Cowing played at UTEP for three seasons before transferring to Arizona for his 4th and 5th years. Devontez Walker played two seasons at Kent State before transferring to North Carolina. Other WRs transferred as well, but that was within Power Five conferences. It didn’t seem correct for Cowing and Walker to write those non-Power Five seasons off as zeros, so their stats are reflected in the “career” charts. However, for the “best season” charts, I only included their data when they were at Power Five schools. To avoid repeating myself a dozen times, we’ll allude to that as the “Cowing/Walker Rule.”
Now, on to the metrics…
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Why is it important? It tells us how a WR is deployed. Are they catching all of their targets close to the line of scrimmage? That could mean their coaches didn’t trust them to win further downfield and just wanted to get the ball in the fast guy’s hands. Were most of their targets deep shots? That could mean they’re primarily a speed decoy destined to be boom or bust candidates with low success opportunities. aDOT is correlated to other meaningful stats, so I think it’s an excellent high-level starting point.
What do we want to see? Typically, aDOTs in the 9 – 14.5 yard range have the highest success rate at the NFL level. It’s an average, so an aDOT in that range should mean they’re getting targeted at short, deep, and intermediate targets. This would imply that they can win in various ways and are, thus, safer bets for production.
You’ll notice that 6 of our 8 prospects are within the desired 9 – 14.5 yards range. Adonai Mitchell and Devontez Walker come in higher than desired. I should also note that in his last two years at Arizona, Jacob Cowing came in at 8.4 and 6.7 aDOTs below the most successful range (hence the Cowing/Walker Rule stated above).
Dominator Rating
Dominator Rating measures a player’s touchdowns and receiving yards relative to their team’s totals in those categories. As its name suggests, it measures how much that player dominated within the context of their offense.
Why is it important? Every team has a different cast of players, coaches, and offensive systems. Some programs establish the run; others air it out. This metric helps us adjust for these differences.
What do we want to see? For their career, I want to see at least 20% (north of 35% is likely a star). I want to see at least 30% for their best season; over 40% is elite. Anything less than 20% in either is not ideal.
The Cowing/Walker Rule is perhaps best illustrated between these two charts (as I didn’t include their non-Power Five seasons in their best season numbers).
As such, Xavier Worthy is the only player to hit a 30% threshold in his career that we care about. I should note that his 38% best season number was as a true freshman.
Five of the sub-4.4 prospects hit the 30% threshold in their best season.
Ladd McConkey played with many great players at Georgia, had some injuries, and was thus used sparingly at times. Nevertheless, he never got there. Don’t fret; you’ll see why the analytics like him in a bit.
Let’s stick with bigger-picture metrics before we zoom into more efficiency-based metrics.
Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (RYPTPA)
Why is it Important? This metric helps us adjust for team and scheme context like the Dominator Rating. Dominator Rating includes touchdown share, whereas RYPTPA does not. Touchdowns can be a bit flukey, and receiving yards within the context of the offense can be more predictive. Many models have moved away from using Dominator Ratings in favor of RYPTPA due to the binary nature of Dominator Ratings being tied to Breakout Scores (which we’ll get to momentarily). I don’t necessarily disagree with that logic, but I am happy to look at both.
What do we want to see? Regarding their career numbers, there’s a strong signal above 1.75. We want to see that number over 2 for the best season.
Xavier Worthy again hit the thresholds in career and best season. So did Jacob Cowing (so we can’t entirely write it off as inferior competition).
Six of our prospects had a best season north of 2 RYPTPA. Xavier Legette hit 3! (albeit as a fifth-year Senior).
Ladd McConkey and Adonai Mitchell never got there.
Roman Wilson didn’t get there until his Senior season, and Brian Thomas in his Junior year.
You might wonder why it matters when they arrived, as long as they did. It’s a fair question leading us to our next topic.
Breakout Age
Breakout Age is determined by the player’s age when posting a Dominator Rating of 20% or better.
Why is it important? It stands to reason that the earlier a WR shows signs of dominance in college, the earlier they will do so in the NFL. Conversely, one might argue that if a player didn’t break out until they were a 5th-year Senior, they wouldn’t be as good of a bet to succeed at the next level. To be clear, I am saying neither. I think it’s a valuable indicator with some signal, but context needs to be considered (which is what we’re doing).
Terry McLauren didn’t technically break out in college. Michael Pittman was in the 38th percentile, and Rashee Rice was in the 53rd percentile. So it’s not everything. Then again, Puka was in the 98th percentile.
What do we want to see? Typically, the younger the WR broke out, the better. We’ll use the 50th percentile as our threshold.
We’ve already discussed Xavier Worthy’s impressive early breakout and Cowing’s early career competition; the latter is not as remarkable, but it did happen. Those are our only two prospects to hit the threshold.
Adonai and BTJ share a Breakout rating as Juniors (with fantastic teammates).
Roman Wilson was a true Senior, and Xavier Legette was a 5th year Senior, so he’s in the 8th percentile. Better late than never.
Ladd never hit the Dominator Rating needed to get a Breakout Rating (I promise it gets better for Ladd).
Now that we’ve hit on some high-level and team context items let’s dive into more efficiency metrics. The following few items examine what these WRs did on a per-route run basis. Extrapolating efficiency in college to the NFL is a dangerous game, but doing so can help paint a picture of what a given WR can do if they get placed in a higher-volume situation that favors their skillset. It helps us find hidden value.
Targets Per Route Run (TPRR)
Why is it important? TPRR demonstrates a WRs ability to earn targets when they’re actually on the field (unlike RYPTPA). It would be best to consider target competition (we’ll touch on that later).
What do we want to see? The more, the better, but generally, we want to see at least 0.2 (the WR earns a target on 20% of their routes) in their career.
Aside from Xavier Legette, every other player’s career numbers are within 0.02 of their best season, so it’s a reasonably sticky metric.
Xavier Legette, Brian Thomas Jr., and Adonai Mitchell have concerning career and best-season numbers. BTJ was sharing the rock with Malik Nabers, but he should still have been able to eclipse 20%. Adonai was surrounded by stars at both stops in college. Still, great WRs earn targets at a higher clip, so we can see why these prospects have analytical concerns despite their incredible athleticism and sound production.
Perhaps as important as the ability to earn targets is what these WRs do with them.
Yards Per Route Run (YPRR)
Why is it important? Whereas TPRR demonstrates a WR’s ability to earn targets, YPRR shows us part of the production picture of what they do with those targets.
What do we want to see? For career numbers, above a 2 is good, and above a 3 is great. Below a 2 is a red flag. I should note that, on all “per route run” metrics, career numbers are much more critical (and predictive) than the best season.
Yet again, on the career numbers, our three laggards below the threshold we want to see are Legette, Mitchell, and Thomas. This shouldn’t come as a surprise as TPRR and YPRR are, of course, correlated. If you’re earning targets, you’re likely getting yards.
Look again at Legette’s best season figure. Hopefully, this will bring his appeal into focus a bit. Once he finally got his shot, he demonstrated a very productive ceiling.
Cowing/Walker Rule is in play, so take their career numbers with a grain of salt. In this metric, they held their own in the Power Five.
Finally, we see some of Ladd’s promise.
Let’s examine these two inputs side by side.
Looking at their college careers with just these two metrics, you can see why there’s some trepidation about BTJ, Legette, and Adonai. When accounting for the Cowing/Walker Rule, McConkey, Worthy, and Roman Wilson pass this fundamental sniff test the best.
There are other indicators to consider, though.
First Downs Per Route Run (1DPRR)
Why is it important? YPRR can be deceiving, especially with fast WRs, because a couple of long TD receptions can paint a misleading picture. 1DPRR is a more predictive stat for consistently making high-value catches.
What do we want to see? Scott Rinear just published this article on this topic over at Fantasydata.com. He found that 1DPRR isn’t a great predictor for success at the next level, but it is a decent indicator of failure, which is perfect for our purposes. Anything below 8% on a WR career is a red flag. To me, below 10% on a WR’s best season is also a red flag.
Ladd is hitting the mark again. Despite his UTEP days, Cowing also hit the threshold we want to see in Arizona (Walker did not survive the Cowing/Walker Rule on this one). Roman Wilson hit the career mark in his Senior year and smashed the threshold.
Yet another metric shows that BTJ, Adonai, and Legette performed underwhelmingly in their careers. BTJ and Xavier eventually get there, though. Adonai does not.
How do they add value to their receptions?
Missed Tackles Forced Per Reception (MTF/R) and Yards After Catch per Reception (YAC/R)
I grouped these two from the onset because, to me, they answer the same question but in different ways (sometimes for various reasons).
Why is it important? Missed tackles forced is about evading or breaking tackles. This is useful because we want to know how capable a WR is of getting more production out of their receptions, as does YAC.
Why don’t we just look at YAC/R? Good question. YAC can be noisy here as we’re not comparing apples to apples. Some prospects played and project as slot WRs (Roman and Ladd), while others played and profile as X WRs (Adonai and BTJ). YAC is easier to accumulate from the slot due to matchups and defensive schemes. For fantasy gamers, both skills achieve the same purpose. For comparison’s sake, we need that context, though.
What do we want to see? In terms of YAC/R, we like to see 5+ yards. Based on my analyzed data, MTF/R above 20% is good, and above 30% is a menace.
The tables have completely turned, so I’m starting to sound like a broken record, but there’s Ladd in the upper right quadrant again. BTJ is also making up some ground here, checking both the boxes in these metrics.
I’ve heard concerns over Roman Wilson’s inability to force missed tackles. The career numbers don’t look great, but he did it at nearly a 30% clip in 2022, so the ability is there, and his YAC numbers are healthy. Xavier Legette saw this most significant jump from career average to best season.
I know it’s a broken record again, but the lower left portions of these charts seem like Adonai’s home.
Contested Target Percentage
This measures how often a WR must deal with a defender in range to contest the pass at the catch point.
Why does it matter? One could argue that a WR with a high percentage of contested catches is not getting enough separation. Again, where the WR lines up, and the scheme have much to do with this. However, some names concerning this metric are historically on the leaderboard (N’Keal Harry, Denzel Mims, JJ Arcega-Whiteside). Some outstanding names are also on the leaderboard (AJ Brown, Drake London). It’s not a death knell and could be a function of their college role, but surely, we’d like our WRs to see less contested targets.
What are we looking for? The lower, the better.
We won’t use this metric in our tally below because, as stated, this isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison. You can tell by looking at the charts which guys played in the slot most frequently and which played outside most frequently. There are ways to adjust for that, but just let the data wash over you.
Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG)
Why is it Important? Well, there’s the obvious, but what we want to know with this subset is, “Did their speed translate to fantasy success?” Look at our speedsters’ fantasy points per game throughout their college careers and for their best season.
What do we want to see? My research has found a strong signal above 12.5 PPR PPG for WR career numbers. For the best season, we bump that up to 15 (of the current top 24 dynasty WRs, only Puka and Nico Collins had the best season PPR PPG under 15).
You will notice three names in the better half of both graphs (Cowing, Worthy, and Thomas), but let’s provide some context.
Cowing/Walker Rule: Cowing’s best season at Arizona matched his average, though it was a very different deployment. More on that later.
Brian Thomas Jr. had 7 PPG in Year 1 and 9 PPG in Year 2, so that average is a bit deceiving, as his monster Junior campaign goosed the average.
As stated, Xavier Worthy’s best fantasy season was his Freshman year. Due to different deployments and more quality teammates, his fantasy production decreased in years 2 and 3. That’s not a terrible thing, though. We like early production, and Xavier was an immediate star.
Targeted QB Rating (TQBR)
Why is it important? This one is pretty self-explanatory. It measures the quarterback’s rating when throwing to a given receiver. Of course, this depends on how good the quarterback is and how the receiver is deployed.
What do we want to see? For career marks, there appears to be a good signal above 113 and an excellent signal above 130.
Interestingly, Xavier Worthy scored so low in this metric for his career and best season. He’s the only WR in the sample that didn’t hit our threshold on the best season side.
Ladd McConkey and Brian Thomas excelled, and Roman Wilson’s career and best season numbers are also quite good.
Devontez Walker saw a downtick in the Power Five but still hit the threshold. Cowing’s number improved with better competition (though recall his aDOT got significantly lower).
We’ve concluded the chart portion of our assignment, but factors are left to consider.
- Target competition – did the WR have other strong pass-catchers in their offense?
- Early declare status – I’m inclined to give this year’s seniors a break due to COVID-19, and with NIL, the landscape on this consideration will shift, but it’s still generally a positive if a player declares early. Not declaring early isn’t as detrimental as once perceived, though.
- Draft Capital – We won’t know draft capital until the draft happens so that those adjustments will be made in my rankings, but I’ll make some educated guesses below.
Player Summaries
As mentioned above, the purpose of this exercise is not to predict success; it is to avoid landmines. Without fail, a speedy WR gets pushed up to the first round, not on merit but perceived potential due to athleticism (mainly speed). So, let’s take a look at these players through that lens.
Adonai Mitchell
Projected Draft Capital: Round 1
Height/Weight/Speed: 6’2 “/205/4.34
NFL Position: X Receiver
Early Declare? Yes
Strong Target Competition? Yes (Georgia – George Pickens, Ladd McConkey, Brock Bowers, Jermaine Burton. Texas – Xavier Worthy, Jatavion Sanders, Jordan Whittington)
Adonai Mitchell is the 2024 poster boy for the reason this article was written.
The traits he’s put on tape are elite. He has violent hands, a variety of releases, creative and sometimes nasty route running, excellent body control, and a TD in every CFB playoff game he ever played in (5). Adonai lulls defenders to sleep with his varied speed. He has elite stopping ability. All of this is great, and when you combine it with a 4.34 second 40 time, this is precisely the potential trap for which NFL teams fall. There will be a team that sees those traits and thinks they can fix him, which makes me skeptical.
Here’s the reality: of the eight prospects in our sample and the thresholds discussed above, he comes in dead last by a wide margin. He checked the boxes in just 7 of our 22 tests. Legette is second-to-last, with a score of 11. The top scores are 18.
Despite the elite traits he’s put on film, he was inconsistent and disappeared for long stretches. That’s evidenced by his poor performance in our “Per Route Run” metrics.
To be fair, Adonai has Type 1 Diabetes. Perhaps we will see a more consistent performer if that is managed better at the next level. He transferred to Texas to be closer to his daughter so we won’t knock him for that. He also had a high ankle sprain in his sophomore season and faced excellent target competition at both stops. Valid excuses aside, this still feels like a classic trap for the NFL and fantasy managers.
He’ll receive first-round draft capital, which will push him up fantasy draft boards. I’m not taking the bait, but I’m also ready to be wrong.
Could he succeed? Yes! However, there are objectively better prospects all over the place in this draft. The analytics suggest he would be an outlier if he had a top-24 season. Don’t bet on an outlier with your premium draft capital.
Brian Thomas Jr.
Projected Draft Capital: Round 1
Height/Weight/Speed:6’2″/209/4.33
NFL Role: X Receiver
Early Declare? Yes
Strong Target Competition? Yes (Malik Nabers and Keyshon Boutte)
If you want to drool over a blazing WR with first-round draft capital and oozing potential, BTJ seems like the guy. He’s tied with Worthy for first in box-checking, hitting 18 of our 22 threshold tests. He ran a 4.33; unlike Worthy, he’s 6’2″ and weighs 209 pounds.
Brian is not without warts, though. He failed to hit our TPRR thresholds in his career and best season. You typically see a younger breakout age for a round 1 pick who is an early declarer.
On film, he’s an incomplete route runner. In Reception Perception, Matt Harmon pointed out that 67.1% of his charted routes were a slant, curl, or nine. We both, independently, are on record comparing him to DK Metcalf in that respect.
I think he’s the best vertical weapon in this class, and his bag of three tricks is good enough to consistently be on the field early while the rest of his game develops. In the seven games I watched, he was rarely pressed due to fear of his speed. His YPRR against press coverage is not strong, but it looked like he had some solutions.
As evidenced by his YAC and MTF numbers above, he has a few very nice moves to dip the first defender after the catch on his curls and comebacks.
He’s not without risk, but whereas Adonai screams over-drafted fade candidate, BTJ has enough underlying metrics to pair with the elite athleticism. He should see the field immediately and often, which provides a floor, and the upside is enormous. I’m buying the hype.
Devontez Walker
Projected Draft Capital: Round 3
Height/Weight/Speed: 6’1″/193/4.36
NFL Role: Situational Deep Threat
Early Declare? No (but Covid and Transfer Portal woes effectively gave him less than three years of playing experience)
Strong Target Competition? No
In my estimation, the upside here is limited. He projects primarily as a deep threat, as evidenced by his aDOT.
He checked 12 of our 22 boxes (ranking 6th of 8), but as we discussed with Cowing/Walker Rule, many of those checks came from his time at Kent State.
In part 1 of Processing The Process, I discussed how disappointed he was at the Senior Bowl. Now, with his elite 40, he’s primed to get over-drafted. His career YAC and MTF numbers aren’t there, and you can also see the lack of dynamism in his route running. He’ll have a role as a field stretcher at the NFL, and that will be valuable to his real-life team, but to me, he seems like a bad bet for a reliable target earner at the next level. I wish he had more time to refine his game in college.
I will have a lot of WRs ranked ahead of him.
Jacob Cowing
Projected Draft Capital: Round 3
Height/Weight/Speed: 5’8″/168/4.38
NFL Role: Slot Receiver
Early Declare? No (5th year)
Strong Target Competition? Yes (Arizona – Tetairoa McMillan, Dorian Singer, Tanner McLachlan)
The other half of our Cowing/Walker Rule is a much more interesting prospect. It is rare to see a true Freshman breakout become a fifth-year Senior. He comes in third place for our threshold tests, but Cowing/Walker Rule.
My biggest concerns are the drop-off in his aDOT once he got to a power-five school and his size (5’8″, 168 lbs.). I’ve heard Tank Dell comps, and I want to squash those right now. We need to look no further than their Senior Bowl performances. Dell was undeniable, and Cowing was invisible at their respective Senior Bowls.
Josh Downs is the other comp I and many others have made. This one makes more sense.
As stated, size concerns can be alleviated with a superpower, and his 4.38 speed qualifies. His elite Breakout Age, albeit against inferior competition, also serves as some reprieve.
Cowing struggles in contested catch situations on film. Fortunately, he had this group’s lowest contested target rate (best season). I’m not sure he profiles as a serious, deep threat. He will likely utilize his speed underneath the defense, agility to gain separation there, and speed to pick up YAC, which he also excelled at.
Despite the speed, the UTEP days, 5th-year Senior, and size will make Cowing a Day Three pick. So, I don’t think that qualifies for being over-drafted. If anything, it seems like he may be underrated. I’m intrigued.
Ladd McConkey
Projected Draft Capital: Round 1-2
Height/Weight/Speed: 5’11″/186/4.39
NFL Role: Slot/Flanker
Early Declare? No
Strong Target Competition? Yes (George Pickens, Brock Bowers, Adonai Mitchell, Jermain Burton)
Because Ladd’s efficiency metrics stack up well, Georgia’s usage of his was nothing short of bizarre. Injuries in his junior and senior seasons had much to do with that. I hate making excuses for guys because injuries are part of the picture, but that’s the most logical explanation. In sum, Ladd comes in 5th for boxes checked in the exercise (15 of 22). On a more positive note, his career marks in efficiency metrics are consistently good. He just never had that dominant season.
He doesn’t appear to be very strong in traffic/contested catch situations, so it’s a good thing he’s an excellent route runner and separator (perhaps the best route runner of this group). His YPRR against the press isn’t great, but he’s excellent against zone and single coverage. He seems likely to begin his career from the slot, where I think he can excel. As he gets stronger and learns to beat the press coverage in more ways, I think he’ll be able to play more as a flanker.
Watching him on film is something to behold. His breaks on out routes are particularly sharp. If there’s such a thing as explosive deceleration, he has it. He can stop, catch the ball, and then go as if the stop didn’t happen—like a kinetic energy teleportation.
There are many cringe-worthy comps out there. I’m going with Nightcrawler from X-Men (please help me make this a thing).
Initially, I was reluctant, but this exercise has made me much higher on him. Oh, and Ladd played QB in high school, which makes him all the more impressive.
Roman Wilson
Projected Draft Capital: Round 2
Height/Weight/Speed: 5’10″/185/4.39
NFL Role: Pure Slot
Early Declare? No
Strong Target Competition? No (Teammates: Ronnie Bell, Cornelius Johnson, AJ Barner)
My love for Roman Wilson is well-documented, and if I’m being honest, I’m probably a little overzealous. If you’ve ever visited my Twitter page, you know I’m a Roman Wilson Stan.
Maybe it was all the Michigan I watched in 2023 or the touchdown against Nebraska. It seems this guy is a DAWG, and I like that a lot. I’m going to try to give a sober, if not overly harsh, assessment here to compensate for my bias.
He checks 15 of our 22 boxes (good for 4th place). He was a late breakout, not an early declarer, and had no elite target competition. His career YPRR, best season Dominator Rating, and targeted QBR are good. I think he’s going to be a very reliable pro.
On film, I would like to see more creativity in his route running. It sometimes seems like he has a pre-planned move rather than an improvised one based on what the defender is doing. He also seems to go full speed all the time rather than using pace changes to fool defenders (something Adonai is great at, for example). He has pretty good deceleration.
He’s fearless in jump ball situations (dawg) and not overly creative with the ball in his hands. He’s fast enough to rack up YAC and elusive enough to make one guy miss, but he doesn’t often have answers for two, even in the open field.
We saw more decisive route winning in Senior Bowl practices than in actual games. I think his route running needs more nuance. Until we see that, he’ll strictly be a slot guy who feasts against zone (however, defenses are playing more zone than ever before).
I see a young Tyler Lockett in my heart. If you remember, Lockett teased us for a year or two before we saw him blossom into the consistent inside and outside guy he became.
The Roman Empire wasn’t built in a day. I’m betting he takes a little time to develop before becoming a PPR heist.
Xavier Legette
Projected Draft Capital: Round 2
Height/Weight/Speed: 6’1″/212/4.39
NFL Role: TBD
Early Declare? No (5th year)
Strong Target Competition? No
I’ve said I don’t like making excuses and tend to only do so for the guys I like (I’m aware), but here are some excuses for the super late breakout. 1) Xavier Legette played QB in high school, 2) COVID-19 (applies to many seniors in this class), and 3) Xavier Legette lost his mom in high school and his dad in his Freshman year of college. I don’t want to get too sappy, but I can only imagine dealing with that kind of grief during formative years, twice. I don’t think I am the type that would have been able to stay focused. The late breakout remains a red flag, but this could be relevant in your decision-making. I’m taking it into account.
He’s got great hands and wild athleticism. Watch the tape, and you will see he’s a physical specimen. His route running is raw, and his contested target percentage matches what you see on film – he’s not a great separator. So why do I like him?
For starters, he’s just fun to watch. He will make the highlight grabs away from his body, with powerful hands and a defender draped all over him. It’s undeniably entertaining. His senior year stats are incredible. Using counting stats in an exercise like this is a mistake, but 1,255 yards in 12 games is impressive. The YPRR, TQBR, MTF, and YAC numbers tell the better story.
Matt Harmon pointed out that his career success rate vs. man makes it unlikely he’s an X receiver in the NFL and that his likeliest path to success in the NFL is as a big slot. I completely agree. His numbers vs. zone also suggest that it could (should?) work.
He is much more landing-spot-dependent than most WRs. I would be very excited if he had a creative coaching staff.
Xavier Worthy
Projected Draft Capital: Round 1
Height/Weight/Speed: 5’11″/165/4.21
NFL Role: TBD
Early Declare? Yes
Strong Target Competition? Yes (Adonai Mitchell, Jatavion Sanders, Jordan Whittington)
Regarding our speed receiver scoring, we saved the best (tied) and fastest for last. Like BTJ, Worthy checks 18 of our 22 boxes. His 97th percentile breakout age is undoubtedly promising, and because he did break out early, just about all of his career and best season metrics hit our target thresholds. The only marks he didn’t hit were career 1DPRR, career MTF/R, and both TQBR thresholds.
One could certainly argue that, analytically, he’s the best prospect in the group. His 165-pound frame is the biggest bogey. I can’t help but wonder what his role will be in the NFL. Most of his snaps in college were outside, but he played a fair amount of slot and was frequently used in motion.
His freshman film is undoubtedly the most impressive. He’s more physical than he looks but struggles against the press. Most of the time, he can use his speed and some crafty footwork. Sometimes, he displays “violent hands,” and sometimes, he does not. That will need to get more consistent in the NFL, as he will have to beat the press regularly.
In addition to being the fastest WR we’ve ever seen, he displays elite stopping ability, which will work in the NFL to create separation. He’s great at changing direction in the open field and is tough, but his size makes him predictably easy to bring down. He’s also inconsistent in contested catch situations but a tough SOB for his size.
I can’t help but think we’re looking at another Marquise Brown (5’9″, 166 lbs., 4.32 40), which is no bad thing. Ironically, I want to see Worthy end up in KC because I believe they know precisely how to deploy him.
I’m afraid, however, that he won’t be available when the Chiefs pick because his 40-time pushed him up the board (like I need to remind you at this point). So the best we could hope for in the 1st round if he is indeed going before KC picks, is Miami (I suspect Mike McDaniel knows what to do with him). Indeed, those aren’t the only two places he could work out, but they’re certainly the favorites for a player like Worthy.
I could rank Worthy as high as WR4 or as low as WR8. His production profile and displayed toughness deserve at least that much respect.
Like our other Xavier, the landing spot can help his ranking. I wish it were easier because I love some small, tough guys.
Rankings and Rookie Draft Capital
When you read this, my pre-draft rookie rankings should be out. Here’s how I rank this sample and the earliest I would consider taking them in Superflex Drafts:
- Brian Thomas Jr (1.09)
- Ladd McConkey (1.11)
- Xavier Worthy (1.12)
- Roman Wilson (Mid-Late 2nd)
- Adonai Mitchell (Late 2nd)
- Xavier Legette (Late 2nd)
- Jacob Cowing (Mid 3rd)
- Devontez Walker (4th round)
Thank you for reading, and I apologize for the misleading title. This was not that kind of speed reading. I want to give a special thank you to @FFcoder for patiently answering my many questions and steering me in the right direction.
If you enjoyed this content, follow me on Twitter @Dynasty_JoeFF, where I promise to be more concise.
