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The Art of Dynasty | Chapter 16 (Startup Trades & Pick Swaps)

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The Art of Dynasty | Chapter 16 (Startup Trades & Pick Swaps)

Building a dynasty fantasy football team requires strategic thinking and football acumen similar to planning a long military campaign. You must intimately understand your leaguemates’ rosters and tendencies, diligently prepare for the rookie draft and waiver wire, and thoughtfully craft a balanced yet versatile roster aligned to your vision. Knowing when to push all chips to the table for a title run or temporarily rebuild for sustained excellence is equally critical. The finest dynasty owners combine sharp situational analysis with statistical rigor and old-fashioned football study to construct juggernauts that dominate their leagues for years.

This guide outlines core tenets to help you architect a formidable roster poised for both immediate and enduring success. By internalizing essential dynasty strategies around planning, preparation, roster construction, and pivoting between competing goals, you too can rule over your leaguemates year after year like a battle-tested emperor of old.

  1. Startup Drafts
  2. Roster Construction
  3. Ideal Archetypes
  4. Ship Chasing
  5. Iron Bank
  6. Rookie Pick Values
  7. Rookie Drafts
  8. Trading
  9. Roster Management
  10. Bayesian Inference
  11. Startup Supreme
  12. Roster Crunch
  13. Trade Assessment
  14. Productive Struggle
  15. Game Theory
  16. Startup Trades & Pick Swaps
  17. Winning the Offseason
  18. Rebuild Roadmap
  19. Revanche
  20. Kingdom Come

In dynasty startup drafts, trades and pick swaps are vital components of the Art of Dynasty strategy. Mastering these drafts requires a mix of statistical analysis, strategic foresight, and an understanding of the market dynamics of player values.

Know the Market

The foundation of any trade evaluation starts with understanding current player values, which can be effectively gauged through Average Draft Position (ADP).

  1. Use ADP Data

    • Real-Time Decision Making: Platforms like Dynasty Data Lab provide updated ADP data that is crucial for real-time decision-making. Constantly refresh your ADP data to stay ahead of market shifts.
    • Comparative Analysis: ADP offers a snapshot of where players are typically being drafted in similar dynasty leagues, offering a baseline for comparing relative values.

  2. Dynamic Valuations

    • Utilize Multiple Sources: Sites like Keep Trade Cut (KTC) and Fantasy Calculator offer dynamic environments where player values are continuously updated based on public polls and trades made in actual dynasty leagues. This can be particularly useful for seeing how the dynasty community at large values players and picks, which can fluctuate based on recent performances, injury news, or emerging trends. I prefer to use data from real-life trades versus KTC or polls on social media for the most accurate gauge of the market.
    • Prioritize Real Trades: While these sites provide valuable insights, prioritize data from real-life trades for the most accurate gauge of the market. Real trades reflect actual market behavior more accurately than polls or hypothetical scenarios.

  3. Monitor Trends

    • Stay Informed: Keep an eye on recent performances, injury news, or emerging trends that can cause fluctuations in player values. Being the first to act on new information can give you a significant advantage.

Use Rankings & Tiers

While ADP and market valuations provide a quantitative basis for evaluating trades, incorporating rankings into your analysis adds a qualitative aspect that can differentiate a good trade from a great one.

Moreover, understanding tier breaks in rankings can significantly enhance trade evaluation. Players within the same tier are considered to have similar value, which suggests that trading within a tier might not yield substantial immediate benefits. However, recognizing when a player is at the lower end of a tier or when a tier is about to drop off sharply can signal a strategic opportunity to make a trade or swap picks.

  1. Incorporate Expert Rankings

    • Qualitative Insights: Rankings from reputable sources take into account not just past performance but projected future output, which is crucial in dynasty formats.
    • Holistic View: Use rankings to get a comprehensive view of player value that includes expert opinions and qualitative factors.

  2. Understand Tier Breaks

    • Tier Analysis: Players within the same tier are considered to have similar value, which suggests that trading within a tier might not yield substantial immediate benefits.
    • Strategic Opportunities: Recognize when a player is at the lower end of a tier or when a tier is about to drop off sharply to signal a strategic opportunity to make a trade or swap picks.

Project Future Scenarios

Game theory can be applied to dynasty trades by evaluating the decisions of your leaguemates as rational strategies aimed at maximizing their team’s value, both immediately and in the future. When considering a trade, think about:

  1. Predicting Outcomes

    • Use ADP Projections: Utilize ADP data to project which players might be available around your picks in future drafts. This helps in assessing whether it’s worth trading current assets for future possibilities.
    • Scenario Planning: Create various draft scenarios based on different ADP outcomes to be prepared for any situation.

  2. Valuation Over Time

    • Monitor Value Trajectories: Understand that player values can depreciate or appreciate over time. Focus on acquiring players whose values are on the rise and selling those on the decline.
    • Long-Term Planning: Incorporate long-term value projections into your trade evaluations to ensure sustained success.

  3. Negotiation Leverage

    • Understand Opponent Needs: Knowing your opponent’s needs and roster gaps can provide leverage in trade negotiations.
    • Mutual Benefits: Present trades that appear mutually beneficial on the surface. Game theory suggests that each player’s actions influence the other’s payoff, so design trades that maximize this dynamic.

Consider Exponential Value Drops

In dynasty leagues, the value of draft picks can decrease exponentially with each round, akin to negative compound interest. Early-round picks are significantly more valuable, as they are more likely to secure top-tier talent. This depreciation should be a key consideration in any trade involving pick swaps. If swapping early for later picks, ensure the cumulative value of what you’re receiving compensates for the steep drop in individual pick value.

  1. Value Early Picks Highly

    • Recognize Exponential Drop: Understand that the value of draft picks drops significantly after the early rounds. Make sure the cumulative value of what you’re receiving compensates for the steep drop in individual pick value.

  2. Trade Smart

    • Strategic Swaps: If swapping early for later picks, ensure the trade package justifies the exponential drop in value. Accumulate multiple later-round picks or additional assets to balance the trade.

Cascading Moves

The Art of Dynasty is balancing short-term competitive needs with long-term strategic planning. When evaluating trades and pick swaps, it is essential to use a combination of ADP, market valuations, tier analysis, and strategic negotiation tactics derived from game theory.

  1. Strategic Sequencing

    • Plan Multiple Steps Ahead: Each trade should be approached not just as a one-off transaction but as a move that shapes the future landscape of your dynasty team.
    • Cascading Benefits: Consider how each move impacts future trades and team composition. Aim for trades that create cascading benefits over multiple seasons.

  2. Balance Needs and Strategy

    • Immediate vs. Long-Term: Balance immediate competitive needs with long-term strategic planning. Ensure that each trade contributes to both your current season’s success and future dynasty strength.
    • Holistic Approach: Use a holistic approach combining ADP, market valuations, tier analysis, and game theory to evaluate every trade comprehensively.

 

Processing the Process Part III: Pro-Day Roundup

Joe Kuvetakis
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Processing the Process Part III: Pro-Day Roundup

Not every player puts their best foot forward at the NFL Combine. Not every player gets invited to the Combine. This is why Pro-Days exist.

The issue with Pro-Days is that they are not controlled environments. Reporting, timing, and structure of activities vary wildly. Some players showcase their skills on turf; some are on grass. It is not an apples-to-apples comparison of prospects.

Nevertheless, they serve as a data point. These data points are better for us fantasy gamers than black-box prospects. The numbers should be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism, particularly 40 times. As a rule of thumb, I follow Player Profiler’s lead and add .05 seconds to 40 times to account for human error and inflated numbers. It is not perfect, but it seems an appropriately sized grain of salt.

With all that being said, let’s do a quick rundown of the Pro-Day results we care most about for your rookie draft purposes.

Running Backs

The Good

There are two HUGE risers, and you must adjust them accordingly. Coming out of the Combine, there were five RBs in the top tier (Jonathon Brooks, Trey Benson, Blake Corum, Marshawn Lloyd, and Jalen Wright). The list has expanded to seven following the Pro-Days of Audric Estime and Will Shipley.

Audric Estime

Audric posted a horrendous 4.71 second 40 at the Combine. His size gave him an 89 Speed Score (below the 90 minimum threshold we discussed in Profiles to Fade and Processing the Process Part II). At his Pro-Day, he clocked in at 4.58. A gigantic improvement for the hurdle king, bumping his Speed Score to 100! Even if you bake in the .05-second margin for error, he’s still well over the minimum threshold of 90 we needed to see. Considering his impressive 127 Burst Score and healthy production profile, he is back on the menu for third-round or above consideration in your rookie drafts.

Will Shipley

Much to my chagrin, Will Shipley did not run at the Combine. Much to my delight, he smoked the 40 at his Pro-Day, clocking a 4.39! That’s good for a 110 Speed Score. Even if we bake in that .05, he’s at an enticing 106. With his passing game acumen and the fact that he’s now flying under the radar, Shipley will most likely be my most drafted running back of the 2024 class. Load up in the late 2nd and beyond.

The Bad

Frank Gore Jr.

All Junior did at the Combine was the bench, just 12 reps. At his Pro-Day, he did everything we care about (40, Vert, Broad). He improved his bench to a respectable 18 reps. He also weighed 3 pounds lighter (from 201 at the Combine to 198). This is relevant because he ran a 4.58. It is a respectable number on its own, but at that weight, it puts him below the minimum Speed Score threshold of 90 (and for a guy that size, we really want to see north of 100). His Burst Score reached 104, which is nothing to write home about. I want to root for this guy, and if he’s got half the determination his old man had, I think we will see him play on Sundays. But let’s be clear: this is an undersized sub-athlete for this position. It would be best if you took 5th round fliers on him at best.

The Ugly

Braelon Allen

Braelon lost 10 pounds for the Combine and elected not to run. He had an unimpressive Burst Score of 113. He then also elected not to run at his Pro-Day. On Twitter, he said, “No, I am 100%, but the time frame to properly train for the 40 and shuttles was too small of a window for me to perform the way I would have wanted to due to my ankle injury. Sorry to all the 40-yard dash warriors, but we’ll let the tape talk.”

That’s me. I’m the 40-yard dash warrior. I read that as “the 40 can only hurt my draft stock, so it’s better I don’t run it.” Indeed, we can cut some slack for those recovering from high-ankle sprains as they sap explosiveness. But after his freshman year, the tape didn’t impress me, and breakout age doesn’t matter much for RBs anyway. I would not consider him before the seven guys listed above and have Kimani Vidal firmly ahead of him. The situation could change that, but he screams un-explosive, 2-down grinder to me. No thanks.

Bucky Irving

I thought Bucky would try to amend his poor 40-time showing at the Combine. He did not. As discussed, we don’t prioritize 192-pound backs with sub-90 Speed Scores.

Rasheen Ali (injured at the Senior Bowl), Daijun Edwards, Jase McClellan, and Miyan Williams did not run at the Combine or their Pro Days. We leave it to draft capital and situation to determine if they’re 5th-round fliers.

Wide Receivers

The Good

Malik Nabers (ever heard of him?)

Unsurprisingly, Malik dominated and validated everything we’ve seen on film. He ran a 4.35 (a 4.40 with our margin of error), which is fast enough. He also matched Ricky Pearsall (the NFL Combine athletic champ) in Burst Score at 135.9. A 42-inch Vert, 129 in Broad, newsflash—Malik Nabers is quite explosive. He’s WR1 or WR2 in just about every draft. No questions.

The “Meh”

Malachi Corley

The YAC Monster ran a 4.46 (call is 4.51) 40-time. At his weight and with his moves, that’s not overly impressive, but it will suffice. He has the requisite athleticism. He’s a very situation-dependent receiver. His landing spot will dictate our interest level more than your typical WR. He’ll produce with manufactured touches and on special teams early. Time will tell if he becomes a downfield threat.

Ainas Smith

The Aggie ran a 4.48 (4.53) at his Pro-Day and firmly met the requisite athletic thresholds for his size. Good to see him run. He’s smack dab in the middle of a big cluster of JAGs for me.

The Ugly (quick hits)

Tayvion Robinson ran a 4.87. I can think of no successful NFL comps.

Tahj Washington ran a 4.52 but is 174 pounds. WRs that size need a superpower at the next level, and he doesn’t appear to have one.

Xavier Weaver, Jordan Whittington, and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint did not run. There are too many intriguing WRs with athletic bona fides and production profiles to chase these guys.

Tight Ends

Both AJ Barner and Trey Knox hit our minimum size and Burst Score requirements, though their Speed Scores are lacking. Feel free to take late fliers.

Quarterbacks

From an athleticism standpoint, the only thing of note is that Michael Penix Jr. was clocked somewhere in the 4.5s. Sorry to be imprecise, but there are reports everywhere (because Pro-Day times aren’t reliable). That said, that’s pretty darn fast for a guy we labeled a statue. He seems to be gaining steam as the draft approaches. Your 1.09 pick in Super-Flex leagues may be more valuable than you think. Don’t give those away until after the NFL Draft.

Parting Thoughts

We have nearly a month until the Draft, so there’s more of “The Process” to be processed. I am many hours into the analytics and film-grinding on the sub 4.4 WRs and will share my thoughts on each here soon. In the meantime, please follow me on Twitter @Dynasty_JoeFF to watch us Dynasty geeks debate the fate of these young men.

Processing The Process Part II: NFL Combine Results

Joe Kuvetakis
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Processing The Process Part II: NFL Combine Results

I deliberately waited a few days to write this piece to allow time for my recency bias to fade. The Combine makes you forget everything you thought you knew about a player and draws your attention to details that don’t necessarily translate to NFL (and fantasy) performance. 

Last week, I wrote Profiles to Fade at The NFL Combine to set up our conversation today. As encouraged as I am about the most athletic WR class of all time (and our top two prospects didn’t test), I noted last week that the Combine is just a threshold test, and we’d learn more about players who are unlikely to be Dynasty assets than those who are. 

I provided rules for each position group, and today, we will discuss those rules and which players didn’t make the cut as good Dynasty bets. 

This is not to say you can’t draft any of these players, but you should temper your expectations. I’m drafting these guys in the 4th round or later (in both single-QB and Superflex).

If you’d like to know why, I suggest you read the above article. Let’s dive in!

Running Backs:

Rule #1: If a running back is over 200 pounds, their speed score must exceed 90. 
Rule #2: If a running back is under 200 pounds, their speed score must exceed 100. 
Rule #3: Do not draft in Dynasty if a running back is 24 or older. 

Here’s the list of RBs that did not meet these minimum thresholds:

NameAgeWeight40 TimeSpeed Score
Emani Bailey222024.6189.45
Ray Davis242184.52101.1
Audric Estime202214.7189.81
Isaac Guerendo242214.33125.73
George Holani242084.5299.66
Bucky Irving221924.5589.59
Jawhar Jordan251934.5689.27
Coday Schrader242024.6189.45
Jaden Shiren221874.4595.37
Tyrone Tracy242094.48103.77

 

We have five guys within 1 point of our minimum Speed Score cutoff, six above our age threshold (thanks, Covid), and a couple with multiple glaring red flags.

  1. Emani Bailey – In Processing The Process Part I, I put him in the “Show Me The Combine” section. An 89-speed score at a hair over 200 pounds doesn’t cut it. 
  2. Ray Davis – Everything about Ray Davis, including his incredible story, looks good… except his age. I’ll take flyers in Redraft, Best Ball, and later rounds in Dynasty drafts.
  3. Audric Estime – I had high hopes for the hurdle king. His 127 Burst score still gives me hope. That 4.71 is brutal, though. Let someone else take him in Dynasty.
  4. Isaac Guerrendo – Sometimes, a prospect comes along and makes you want to rewrite the rulebook. 
Anton Chigurh Rule GIFfrom Anton Chigurh GIFs


In the year of our Lord, 2024, that prospect is Isaac Guerrendo. He ran a 4.33 at 221 pounds – a Speed Score of 125.7! His Burst Score came in at 135! Those are ELITE numbers. Sadly, he’s 24. With athleticism to burn, he should be at the top of the discard pile. Again, I’m interested in Redraft and Best Ball, but this is Dynasty, so we’ll put him at the top of round 4 and hope he falls. He can’t appreciate enough to warrant an earlier selection.

5. George Holani –  Another age casualty. The measurables look fine.

6. Jawhar Jordan – At 25, he was already in trouble, but I doubt he’ll be drafted at 193 pounds and an 89-speed score. 

7. Bucky Irving – Holy cow, I did not expect this one. I knew he was on the smaller side, but I did not expect him to run a 4.55. His sub-90 speed score didn’t even meet our threshold for 200+ pound backs, let alone a back that’s 192. If it runs like a Duck and weighs like a Duck… do not draft until the 4th or later. I’m so sorry.

8. Cody Schrader – An older prospect who doesn’t meet our Speed Score threshold. 

9. Tyrone Tracy Jr. – This one is interesting. He’s a wide receiver turned running back – a la Antonio Gibson. His 130 Burst score, to go along with his 103-speed score, is intriguing, but alas, he’s almost the same age as Gibson.

Other RB notes: 

Braelon Allen – He’s not listed above, but I’m flagging him nonetheless. He showed up at 235 pounds (definitely less than his playing weight at Wisconsin) and didn’t run. It begs the question: did he shed the weight and know that his speed still didn’t improve enough? On top of that, his Burst Score was 112. That was the bottom 3 for those who tested. Going into the weekend, he was the RB1 on many lists. I’ve been skeptical because, despite his freshman breakout, we didn’t see much improvement (or excitement) on tape during the last two seasons. He’ll need to obliterate his pro-day to get into my top-5. Fade until further notice. I’m sorry about Bucky. I’m not sorry about Braelon. 

Wide Receivers:

Rule #4: Research the burner wide receivers!
Rule #5: If a receiver runs a 4.6 or slower, they must be at least 195 pounds. 
Rule #6: If a receiver weighs less than 180 pounds, they must run better than a 4.5 (or run a 4.54 because they’re carrying a Heisman).

I already alluded to this being the most athletic WR group ever. None of the WRs that tested failed to meet our thresholds above. A few quick notes:

  1. Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell, Devontez Walker, Jacob Cowing, Ladd McConkey, and Roman Wilson – You no doubt heard about Xavier Worthy’s record-breaking 40. Watching live, believe me, it was different. All these guys helped their draft stocks with those 40s because, as we established in “Profiles to Fade,” the NFL still overdrafts speed at the WR position. Nobody was expecting this many sub-4.4 guys, though. As such, sometime between now and the NFL draft, I’ll be doing a deep dive into each of these guys to help you determine which ones are John Ross and which are Chris Olave. 
  2. Anthony Gould, Taj Washington, and Xavier Weaver weighed in at 174, 174, and 169, respectively. They did not run at the Combine. Watch for their pro-day results, and take those with a grain of salt. 
  3. Malachi Corley – He showed up, weighed in, and didn’t participate. For a guy whose pitch is athleticism and “the next Deebo,” I’m even more skeptical than I was coming in.
  4. Rome Odunze and Xavier Worthy “got that dawg” – Rome, the consensus WR3 (in the NFL and Dynasty), showed up, showed out, and on top of it all, relentlessly tried and re-tried to improve his 3 Cone Drill. Xavier ran a 4.25 in his first 40, which was already the fastest time. You could hear his peers telling him to remove his shoes after the first attempt, implying there was no reason to run again. He did it anyway and walked away a legend. These two data points are not “measurables” per se, but they are alpha traits I like quite a bit. Dissatisfaction with “good enough” is good enough to make me more interested than I was.

Quarterbacks:

Rule #7: If a quarterback is under 6 feet tall, he better be fast.

No QBs were disqualified, as none were under 6 feet tall.

JJ McCarthy, notably, weighed in at 219. Michael Penix and Bo Nix threw well. Joe Milton showed off his bazooka. We’ll let draft capital and landing spot dictate how we approach these QBs in rookie drafts. 

Tight Ends:

Rule #8: Don’t draft Tight Ends who are under 6’3″
Rule #9: Don’t draft Tight Ends for those under 230 pounds. Two hundred forty-five pounds or more is preferred. 
Rule #10: TEs must have a Burst Score of 110 or above or a Speed Score of 100 or above (with a strong preference for both). 
  1. Jaheim Bell and Jack Westover – Both measured in at 6’2. There are a lot of high hopes for Bell, and he looks like a good athlete, but we’re not drafting him before the 4th round. Slower Chig Okonkwo doesn’t interest me.  
  2. Devin Culp – He weighed 231 pounds, barely meeting our weight threshold, but had a healthy 115 Speed Score. He is not disqualified, but I doubt you’ll take him early.
  3. Brock Bowers – I was worried about his height, but he hit the 6’3 mark. I was also concerned about his weight, but he weighed in at 243 (it sounds like he got the memo). He chose not to run after the seemingly conspicuous bulk-up, but with his statistical profile and the requisite height and weight, we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. 

Other TE Notes:

My favorite Senior Bowl prospect, Theo Johnson, came in at 6’6, 259 pounds, with a Speed Score of 129 and a Burst Score of 124! Ladies and gentlemen, this is the most athletic TE ever (adjusting for size). His production profile is lacking, but we care more about TE athleticism than any other skill position. I think he’ll take a year or two to develop, but… You may fire when ready. 

Some Housekeeping:

From the Processing the Process Part I, I listed 7 Senior Bowl players whose Combines I wanted to see. Let’s revisit each briefly:

  1. Ricky Pearsall – Ricky ran a very nice 4.41 and boasted a 42-inch vertical jump and 129 broad jump (99.9 Speed Score and 135.9 Burst Score). He also had the best 3-Cone of WRs at the Combine. Our eyes did not deceive us; he’s an NFL athlete who is also a great route runner. I suspect I’ll have him ranked higher than most.
  2. Xavier Legette – As mentioned, Xavier will be part of my deeper dive into the blazers. However, his 4.39 40 and 40-inch vertical will not hurt. Despite his very late breakout, I remain intrigued.
  3. Luke McCaffrey – His 4.46 bested his brother. It’s a different position, of course (which Luke has only been playing for a year), but his pedigree and bona fides as an athlete leave him on the interested list. 
  4. Daijun Edwards – Daijun only did the broad jump. I went from hopeful to skeptical. Like Braelon, he better crush his pro-day.
  5. Michael Wiley – At 210 with a 4.51 40 (101.5 Speed Score), I’m not fading.
  6. Emani Bailey – As discussed, he’s a pass. 
  7. Isaiah Davis – At 218 with a 4.57 (99.96 Speed Score), he’s firmly in our consideration set above the RBs who didn’t meet our thresholds.

You can bet I’ll be tracking the pro days of the players we have incomplete info on and doing deeper dives into the prospects. Follow me @Dynasty_JoeFF, and check back here for more intel on the speedster WRs.

 

Profiles to Fade at the NFL Combine

Joe Kuvetakis
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Profiles to Fade at the NFL Combine

I’ve been thinking about the signal the NFL Combine produces for several weeks. I have started, and not finished, many iterations of this article because I kept finding compelling exceptions to my hypothetical advice. 

Let’s get philosophical for a moment. What is The NFL Combine? For one, it’s a bizarre spectacle where grown men are measured in their underwear, albeit for the chance to make life-changing money. That’s not why it’s held, though. 

The Combine is a Threshold Test 

Specific athletic tests matter more for certain position groups and body types, but at large, NFL teams want to ensure the college film hasn’t duped them. They want to ensure the players on their board meet physical and athletic thresholds so they don’t get the pick wrong. 

Don’t. Get. The. Pick. Wrong! 

The longer I play fantasy football and, more particularly, Dynasty, the more apparent it becomes that who you DON’T take is as important, if not more important, than who you DO take. 

If we don’t get the pick wrong, the player will hold value for longer.

We’re playing a game of probabilities based on a game of inches with high variance. 

So, while imaginations run wild this week about what is possible, we will focus on what’s not probable. More specifically, which players are not likely to hold long-term dynasty value.

This may not excite you as much as a hype piece, but it will save you time and precious draft capital. Let’s remove some prospects from our set of considerations, shall we?

Running Backs

I’m starting here because I believe we learn the most about running backs at the NFL Combine.  

Kyren Williams infamously ran a 4.65-second 40-yard dash at 195 pounds (that’s very bad). Yet, Kyren Williams sits comfortably in the top 10 of almost every Dynasty running back list the internet offers.

He is among the most divisive fantasy assets I have ever seen, directly resulting from his NFL Combine. 

I have precisely zero shares, and here’s why:

Speed Score – Speed Score considers a player’s speed relative to weight. The calculation is (weight x 200) / (40-time^4). This is akin to Mass x Speed = Force. (Think about tackling Derrick Henry, who had a 98th percentile speed score of 116.3)

It’s difficult to overstate the significance of this metric for running backs. Take a look at the speed scores of the top 12 RBs in Dynasty (not ranked in any particular order here):

Breece Hall – 116.9

Jamyr Gibbs – 110

Bijan Robinson- 108

Jonathan Taylor – 121.7

Saquon Barkley – 124.3!

Christian McCaffrey – 100.3

Ken Walker – 114.7

Isaiah Pacheco – 118.5

James Cook – 104.3

Devon Achane – 108

Rachaad White – 106.3

Kyren Williams – 83

One of these things is not like the others. 

Any speed score under 90 is a red flag, and above 100 is (firmly!) preferred unless the player has serious passing game chops (Alvin Kamara – 99 comes to mind). 

I can keep going with this list, but I promise the only other guy you’ll find in the top 60 with a speed score under 90 is Devin Singletary (a fine player in his own right, but have you tried trading away Devin Singletary lately?).

Kyren Williams is so divisive because he’s found a way to produce despite his terrible Speed Score. He strikes me as the exception that proves the rule, though. The only way to overcome a Speed Score under 90 is with incredible volume (see also Josh Jacobs – 90).

This brings us to our next point. The kingmaker at the running back position is volume. You need to be efficient (aka good) to keep getting volume, but how can the Combine help us predict it?

Volume is quite binary, and it’s correlated to size. Being 200 pounds or more is that magic predictor. Right or wrong (and with each passing year, it seems more wrong), the old guard in the NFL will stigmatize running backs under 200 pounds as role players and passing-down specialists. It is rare to see backs this size to get “bell-cow” work because conventional wisdom says they won’t hold up. 

I don’t believe the conventional wisdom is correct, and we’ll continue to see smaller backs buck that trend (assuming their speed score and BMI are good enough). However, we play a game of probabilities, so the trend is still your friend.

Consider our top 12 list above. Gibbs and Cook weighed in at 199 (and their teams have been reluctant to hand over the reins completely). We love Achane, but he’s 188, and his multiple rookie-year injuries did nothing to dispel the stigma. Even with one of the game’s most forward-thinking coaches, these questions persist. And then, there’s our favorite rule-breaker, Kyren, at 195. In other words, 66% of the top 12 weighed over 200 pounds (and Gibbs and Cook were at 199, so call it 83%).

So volume is correlated to weight, which is a factor in determining Speed Score.

Let’s simplify this into a couple of rules for running backs:

Rule #1: If a running back is over 200 pounds, their speed score must exceed 90. 
Rule #2: If a running back is under 200 pounds, their speed score must exceed 100. 

The implication here, my dear Kyren Williams holders, is that you should sell now or forever hold your peace because you are betting on an extreme outlier. Proceed with caution. 

The only other disqualifying factor I have for spending meaningful draft capital (top 3 rounds) on running backs is their age. We know age going into the Combine, but it will be consolidated on countless spreadsheets when you look up their measurables. 

According to research conducted by Player Profiler (the fantastic source for all the metrics we’re discussing today), the age apex for RBs is 24.5 years old. As a rule, I don’t draft 24-year-old running backs in Dynasty because, sadly, they will be past their prime before they see meaningful touches. My cutoff on rookie RBs is 23, and we strongly prefer early declares in Rounds 1 and 2 (and if they’re 23, they better be an asset in the passing game). 

Rule #3: Do not draft in Dynasty if a running back is 24 or older.

Wide Receivers 

For wide receivers, draft capital is a better indicator of fantasy success (and dynasty value) than any measurement at the Combine. It’s tied to athleticism, but as we discussed, the Combine is a threshold test of that athleticism. 

At wide receiver, we’re not as concerned about the Speed Score as we are with raw 40 times. This is because running backs take handoffs and dump-offs behind the line of scrimmage with many bodies in front of them, so force matters. On the other hand, receivers typically catch the ball at the 2nd level of the defense (or deeper) with a lot more open field.

Of our top 12 in Dynasty, Puka and Amon-Ra clock in at the slowest with 4.62 and 4.65 seconds, respectively. Those gentlemen were drafted in the 4th and 5th rounds of the NFL draft. So, speed matters, but it’s reflected in draft capital, so we don’t want to double-count. 

As stated, draft capital is a better indicator of opportunity (and success) than any other Combine measurement, but therein lies a cautionary tale. 

Receivers get over-drafted due to speed. As a Raiders fan (see Henry Ruggs or Darrius Heyward-Bey), I’m all too familiar with this mistake. The Raiders aren’t the only ones. Do you remember NFL Combine record-holder John Ross getting drafted at 1.09? Remember Kadarius Toney? Remember Alec Pierce? 

 

We like speed, but hyper-athletic burners may often get overdrafted in the NFL, making them look better in all the prospect models you’ll see. This is because… speed is tied to draft capital -> draft capital carries signal -> draft capital is included in those models.

Rule #4: Research the burner wide receivers!

Did they have a late breakout without significant teammate competition? Any of them transfer? Did they have a 30% dominator rating or better? If the main argument is speed and draft capital, do more research!

The Size Question 

Now, much has been made of the influx of small receivers who are succeeding in the NFL. The argument I hear is that the rule changes in the NFL have made it possible for wide receivers with slighter frames to survive in today’s game.  

Despite winning the Heisman in 2020, there were serious concerns about Devonta Smith’s prospects as an NFL wide receiver due to his weight of 170 pounds. The fact that he’s never been outside the top 36 in fantasy points per game (FPPG) has certainly quelled those concerns. 

Last year, Tank Dell pushed the envelope further at 165. Before getting injured on a running play, he averaged 15 FPPG (good for #18 on the season). 

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Tutu Atwell (155 pounds) just had his best season as a pro, either. 

This is not to say that bigger-bodied WRs are going away (they win in different ways), but rather, the environment in which these smaller WRs can thrive has arrived. 

So, size matters less than ever, and as mentioned above, speed matters less for wide receivers too, because they just need to be able to get open, right?

I don’t think so. 

We mentioned the 40 times of Amon-Ra (4.65) and Puka (4.62) above. You can throw Cooper Kupp (4.62) in the mix as well. They can win with 4.6+ 40 times but weigh 197, 204, and 210, respectively. 

What about the smaller guys? Consider the list below:

That’s every WR within or near most top 100 lists who weigh 180 pounds or less. Aside from the former Heisman Trophy winner, they all run a 40 in the 4.4s.  

Is it safe to say anything better than 4.65 forty chins the bar? Nope. There’s more to it: 

Rule #5: If a receiver runs a 4.6 or slower, they must be at least 195 pounds. 
Rule #6: If a receiver weighs less than 180 pounds, they must run better than a 4.5 (or run a 4.54 because they’re carrying a Heisman)

Quarterbacks

Yet again, draft capital is the best indicator for success, but that’s cold comfort at the QB position. So much goes into these evaluations, and athleticism at the Combine will not answer all the questions for the most challenging position in sports. Thus, I mercifully only have one rule.

Rule #7: If a QB is under 6 feet tall, he better be fast. (See Kyler Murray – 4.49, or Russell Wilson 4.55)

This millennium, Kyler and Russ make up the complete list of sub-6 foot QBs that have finished a season as a top-12 Dynasty QB. We’ll keep a candle burning for Bryce (5’10”, 4.63), but I won’t make any of these bets soon.

Tight Ends

Tight End is a complex position. They’re pass-catchers, but their roles as blockers are critical to them getting on the field and staying on the field. They score fantasy points via mismatches on linebackers who can’t stay with them or safeties they can out-muscle. Size (height and weight) is vital for the blocking, and athleticism (Burst Score and Speed Score) is necessary for the mismatches.

Rule #8: Don’t draft Tight Ends under 6’3″.

Candles are still lit for Chigoziem Okonkwo as well, but we need to see him thrive at 6’2″ first.

Rule #9: Don’t draft Tight Ends under 230 pounds. (245 pounds, or more, is preferred.)

Evan Engram is the only player preventing the number from being 245 or more.  

Rule #10: Tight Ends must have either a Burst Score of 110 or above or a Speed Score of 100 or above (with a strong preference for both). 

The Tight End must create mismatches via athleticism to consistently produce. 

If you want more evergreen content on the Combine and athleticism, our very own Professor wrote an article you should check out if you are unfamiliar with any of the terms I used: Rookie Analytics Breakdown (it’s also just a great time of year to brush up on all of these concepts).

Further, if you’re looking for more than profiles to fade, Jax Falcone has dropped three parts of his 2024 Anatomy Series on Twitter (Click here for Quarterbacks, Running Backs, and Wide Receivers), which goes hand in hand with what we’re discussing today. 

You can also follow me there, Dynasty_JoeFF, and catch me reacting to all the testing this week.

Bored & Dangerous | Superflex Startup Draft Review

The Undroppables
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Bored & Dangerous | Superflex Startup Draft Review

There are many different approaches to a startup draft based on process and strategy. We recently dove into a dynasty startup.

League Settings

  • The Boredroom 🪅
  • 12 team, Superflex, PPR, 0.5 TE Premium
  • Start 11 – QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 FLX, 1 SF
  • 26 Bench, 5 taxi

Startup Draft Settings

Chalk

Process: Drafting from the 1.01 position in a dynasty startup can be both an enviable and challenging situation. Holding the first overall pick gives you access to the cream of the crop. However, it can also put you in a tricky spot, especially if you’re looking to move back and accumulate additional assets to kick-start your team’s build.

When I signaled that the 1.01 was on the trading block, I was met with little interest, forcing me to make a few selections before closing some deals. Once you are able to move back, you can snowball that move in multiple picks. In a Superflex league, where QBs hold increased value, establishing a solid QB foundation becomes crucial. Recognizing this, my strategy pivoted towards securing reliable quarterbacks to anchor my team. Beyond quarterbacks, I aimed to acquire an elite, young WR1. Wide receivers are invaluable assets in dynasty leagues as cornerstone pieces for fantasy teams for many years. Securing such a player would provide a consistent scoring threat and a key building block for my team’s future.

This approach reflects a broader strategy in dynasty formats: the balance between winning now and planning for the future. By being aggressive and trading back and focusing on key positions and player archetypes, I aimed to position my team for both immediate competitiveness and sustained success. Read more about my dynasty fantasy football strategy in The Art of Dynasty.

1.01 – Josh Allen

It was impossible to trade back from the 1.01 so I took the best QB in fantasy football. There were concerns that Allen would run less, lowering his elite ceiling, but he proved once again why he should be at the top of all dynasty rankings. Even with questions at WR heading into the offseason (Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis), Allen has Dalton Kincaid as a go-to weapon and we know Buffalo will ensure Allen has options at receiver.

2.12 –  Tua Tagovailoa

Wiz sniped Dak a mere 2 spots ahead of me (which was painful) and with the third-round reversal I wanted to lock in a QB with strong upside. Tua has been up and down over the past 2 seasons but at least we avoided any head injuries in 2023. Assuming he signs an extension (and all signs indicate that he will), Tua is tied to Tyreek and Wadde in an explosive Mike McDaniel offense for the foreseeable future. In hindsight, I may have been better off waiting on the 2nd QB and taking one in round 5 or 6.

3.12 – Jaylen Waddle

I wanted an elite young WR as a cornerstone and with Tua already in tow, Waddle falling to me was a gift. The pick immediately before was Tyreek (and tried to trade him to me), which made me feel much better about taking the 2nd Dolphins receiver.

4.01 – Trade

With WRs like Aiyuk, Moore, Pittman, on the board, it was tempting to take a second WR but I needed to find a trade to start accumulating value in the draft. I aggressively shopped the pick as I really did not want to take back-to-back picks if possible. I was able to move back to 5.05 and added 7.05.

5.05 – DeVon Achane

Even with a Dolphins stack already in tow, I was excited to start my RB room with a solid option like Achane who has elite upside as part of a trade back from 4.01. I think Achane has the ability to find himself in the top 5 of dynasty RBs.

5.12 – 2024 1.07

In the landscape of Superflex dynasty rookie drafts, the concept of tier-based valuation plays a pivotal role in strategic decision-making. The ability to secure players like Odunze or Bowers towards the latter part of the 5th round (with the rookie 1.07) is a strategic coup.

6.01 – TJ Hockenson

Hockenson, despite his recovery from an ACL injury, retains his status as an elite tight end in fantasy football. His performance is anticipated to sustain his significant impact in TE premium leagues, where his skills as a reliable pass-catcher and red-zone threat are highly valued.

7.05 – 2024 1.11

This was the byproduct of a trade back which resulted in a late 1st to move back a round from 4 to 5. The final math comes out to trading DJ Moore for Achane + 2024 1.11.

7.12 – Trade

I traded this pick and moved back 6 spots to 8.06, gaining a move up to 9.07 from 9.12 and an additional startup pick (12.06).

8.01 – Javonte Williams

I aimed to secure my second running back before reaching the ninth round, and my confidence in Javonte remains strong. Despite 2023 being a challenging year for him, primarily due to his comeback from a significant knee injury, he exhibited promising glimpses of his ability. Moving forward, he appears to be well-positioned for a successful season.

8.06 – Trade

This series of trades began with my decision to move down from the 7.12 slot. I initially exchanged that pick for the 9.06 and then traded again to acquire the 11.06. The cumulative outcome of these transactions was a strategic shift back from the 7.12 to the 9.06 position, in exchange for both the 11.06 and 12.06 picks, coupled with a move up from the 9.12 to the 9.07 slot.

8.12 – De’Andre Swift

As the pool of running backs was rapidly drying up, I made a move up from the 9.07 position through a trade that involved swapping my 10.01 for a 10.12 pick, allowing me to secure a young running back who, despite a history of injuries, holds considerable potential.

9.06 – Diontae Johnson

I considered selecting the 2024 2.02 pick here, but ultimately, I felt that Diontae offered compelling value, particularly given his track record as a consistent contributor on a team in need of wide receiver production.

11.09 – Trade

I was keen on avoiding drafting Tony Pollard or selecting a second-round rookie, so the chance to trade down three spots was an ideal solution.

11.12 – Zach Charbonnet

I was torn between Pollard and Charb after Jakobi Meyers and Jaylen Warren were sniped. Charbonnet, being younger than Pollard by three and a half years, may not have as high a ceiling but appears to be a more secure option for dynasty formats looking ahead. Nonetheless, for those inclined to gamble, Pollard represents an outstanding opportunity at his current valuation.

12.06 – Trade

I executed another trade, moving back eight positions to 13.02, in exchange for advancements in two rounds – improving from 15.12 to 15.02 and from 18.01 to 14.11. Whenever there’s a chance to trade back within the same tier of players, I’m quick to hit the accept button, seizing opportunities to enhance value wherever possible.

Wiz

Process: My initial thoughts coming into this startup were to grab one high-end QB and start moving out of my subsequent picks in rounds 2, 3, and even 4. I really wanted to try to stack as many picks as I could in rounds 5-9 to build out a roster that was deeper vs high-end for a few reasons.

The first reason is, I am a trader at heart. I am constantly looking for ways to take advantage of market inefficiencies and having more liquid assets in that 5-9 round range allows for more future flexibility when it comes to negotiating trades. The second reason is that I value depth. I have been burned in the past in deeper leagues by constructing a roster of too many high-end players at the expense of depth. Thirdly, I knew the board had what I considered to be multiple “sharp” players and given that I also just like a lot of players in that range; I wanted to give myself more chances at those guys vs my league mates.

Unfortunately, I found it more difficult to move around the board than I initially thought it would be, so I largely went with a combination of BPA/what best fits my roster given the remaining players on the board.

1.03 – CJ Stroud

So the plan here was to try and trade down to about the 1.08 – 1.10 range and acquire more draft capital and go after a guy like Anthony Richardson. Unfortunately, no one was looking to pay that premium to move up so being that it’s a 6PT passing TD league, Stroud was the pivot for me here. Honestly, once I realized moving out of the pick wasn’t happening, it wasn’t even much of a decision here.

2.10 – Dak Prescott

The original line of thinking here was to go young stud WR. The board falling the way it did though presented another opportunity. Not going WR with either of my first 2 picks is entirely new territory for me from a start-up strategy perspective and even though I came away set at QB after the first 2 rounds; I’m still not totally sure how to feel about not coming away with a WR here.

3.10 – Trey McBride

After seeing LaPorta, Breece, Gibbs, Olave and multiple high-end rookie picks go earlier in round 3, the McBride decision was honestly easy for me here. Given that we’re in a TEP league, I almost view McBride and LaPorta as 1A & 1B from a dynasty TE standpoint.

4.03 – Jonathan Taylor

Aiyuk going the pick before me here really kinda threw my roster construction plan out the window here. I felt like it was too early for somebody like Drake London & Nico Collins (yes I could’ve stacked but had other ideas there) but in hindsight with ATL bringing in somebody like Zac Robinson, I probably would’ve been fine taking London here. Outside of Breece and Bijan, I feel like JT is one of the few true 3 down RBs out there which was the main justification for this pick.

5.10 – Tank Dell

H-Town aka Stack City. Was THRILLED to get Tank Dell here. Ironically starting with 5.07 we had 4 rookie WRs in a row go off the board in Rashee, Addison, Zay and then Tank. If you asked me to rank those 4 for dynasty purposes, Tank is at the top of the list every time for me so to get him + have the added benefit of the stack? Honestly, this was probably one of my favorite picks of the entire draft.

6.03 – Jayden Reed

After only going WR once out of my first 5 picks, going WR again here was really a no-brainer for me. While I do have concerns about the amount of mouths to feed in GB with the plethora of pass-catching talent they have, getting Reed here as another young WR with upside to pair with Dell felt like the right move. Outside of JT, I am feeling really good about the blend of youth and talent here 6 rounds into this startup.

7.10 – Deebo Samuel

Probably the first pick in the draft so far where I came away not at least somewhat loving it. Aging WRs (who have had injury problems) are not typically my thing here but I didn’t want that to deter me from what I did think was decent value here. Kupp and Davante were still on the board but I’ll buy myself a couple more years with Deebo’s age. Other line of thinking here was flipping Deebo to a contender next year felt like it would be easier to do vs trying to flip DA or Kupp.

8.03 – Michael Mayer

Really thought about diving into the rookie pick pool here (would’ve been the 1.12) but I liked what I saw from Mayer in the 2nd half of the year. Trying to remember that TEs take time (outside of LaPorta haha) but Mayer was an elite prospect and the play here is he takes the McBride career path and I’ve got another nice asset to flip into another skill guy or even use as a flex starter. Chalk also taking Javonte (smh) made the Mayer pick much easier here. (This felt like the start of player queues being attacked btw)

9.10 – 2024 2.02

Finally took the plunge on the rookie pick here in the 9th round. Really didn’t love the board so went into the draft thinking whenever I was feeling that type of way, go visit the rookie draft pick well. Rhamondre going the pick before me made this decision pretty easy actually.

10.03 – Josh Downs

Being a WR guy, really wanted to go WR here and didn’t feel like I was forcing it with a guy like Downs. Love the fact that youth was a + here but also liked what I saw with him and AR in their short time together. I also couldn’t be more of a believer in Shane Steichen so taking players attached to his offense is usually a very easy decision for me.

11.10 – Jaylen Warren

Feeling better about my WR room at this point, I decided to pivot to building out my RBs. I’ve always been a Warren guy (my analytics based approach loves his potential outlook if Najee would just get out of the way) and at this point in the draft I really like taking the shot on an upside RB play here. Also, having Chalk text me seconds after the pic saying “wtf” made me feel better about it as well.

12.03 – Chase Brown

Another upside RB play here. Chase Brown definitely has juice and seeing him contribute in the passing game late in the season last year was extremely encouraging for his future potential outlook. Mixon isn’t getting any younger and with Brian Callahan now in TEN, I wonder if the Bengals begin to pivot to a guy like Brown sooner rather than later given his big play potential. Again, if I’m taking RBs, I’m taking them based on two sets of criteria really. Youth and an upside case and for me Brown checks both of those boxes.

Marcus

Process: Coming into this draft, my main goal was to acquire a top 5 (subjective) dynasty player at each of the 4 main position groups (QB, RB, WR, TE). I knew I could wait on rookie picks, as the depth of this draft class gave me assurance that I did not have to reach for a first-round pick if I did not feel the value was greater than the players on the board. After choosing my top positional players, my mission was to fill in rest of roster with a combination of youth and veterans with the highest ceilings for the next 2-3 seasons.

1.04 – Justin Herbert

2 years younger than both Lamar and Herbert, I selected Justin Herbert in anticipation of Jim Harbaugh coming to town (I was right). While Harbaugh favors a run heavy scheme, there is no doubt in my mind that he will turn the LA chargers into a winner, so I gladly jumped all over their franchise QB.

2.09 – AJ Brown

I believe AJ brown is one of the top 5 dynasty WR, so I could not pass up the opportunity to add him to my squad. Only 26 years old, Brown is still in his prime, and will be a solid contributor to my squad for years to come.

3.09 – Christian McCaffery

Yes, he is on the older side for a RB, but no, I do not care, as he has shown no signs of slowing down. He’s CMC…need I say anymore?

4.04 – Mark Andrews

Being a TE premium league, I knew I needed to make TE a top priority. Mark Andrews is “Ole reliable” when it comes to fantasy football TE production. He has found a solid connection with franchise QB Lamar Jackson, and I expect that to continue for future years to come.

5.09 – Zay Flowers

Sticking with the Baltimore Ravens trend, Zay Flowers had a tremendous rookie season. He showed the ability to create effortless separation, and really emerged as the WR1 for the Baltimore Ravens. I expect him to build on his rookie year success and continue to improve.

6.04 – Rachaad White

Coming off a top 5 PPR finish in 2023, White enters his 3rd season as the lead back for the TB buccaneers. I have always believed that for the RB position, volume is king. If White continues to see upwards of 15-20 touches a game, I expect him to continue to churn out top 10 PPR finishes for the next few seasons.

7.09 – Kirk Cousins

Needing to solidify my second QB in a superflex, I opted to go with none other than Kirky Chains. Though he is coming off an Achilles tear, I do not expect this to impact his 2024 performance, especially if he returns to the Vikings. With top 10 finishes in 5/8 games played in 2023, he provides a solid ceiling for a 2nd QB option.

8.04 – 2024 2.01

Needing to select my first rookie pick in our draft, the top of the 2nd round should offer a decent selection of both WR and RB. I should be able to land a nice contributing piece with this pick for the 2024 season and beyond.

9.09 – Rhamondre Stevenson

Wanting to secure a 3rd legit option at RB, I opted to go with NE patriots 4th year player Rhamondre Stevenson. While 2023 was a bit hampered by injury, I expect his PPR value to show up in 2024 with a new offensive scheme and presumably a new QB.

10.04 – 2024 2.05

Again, looking to make my hay in the top half of the second round in this years rookie draft, I think I can add another contributing piece with this pick for the 2024 season and beyond.

10.12 – Amari Cooper

While 29 years old, Cooper still showed the ability to dominate games in the 2023 season. I believe this is good value for a very productive player and still the #1 receiving option in his respective offense.

11.06 – Hollywood Brown

Still just 26 years old, Hollywood enters FA for the 2024 season. I truly believe he is going to resign with the Cardinals and they will draft either Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers. I think this addition along with the emergence of Trey McBride will help the speedster maximize his opportunity against single coverage. I like this value in the 11th round for a promising young WR still looking for more to prove.

12.04 – Isaiah Likely

See above for pick 4.04, this pick was the old “Cover Your Ass” policy. I was not confident Likely would make it back to me in the 13th round, so I needed my TE premium security blanket. Not to mention he is an absolute stud of a player.

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