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The Undrafted | Eli Manning Pretty Girl

This week on “The Undrafted”, a fantasy football podcast focusing on dynasty game theory, Scott (@DynoGameTheory) has Sam Holt (@SamanthaRHolt), on as a guest. They talk about their favorite rookie running backs, why you should be higher on the Steelers offense, and Jax complains about only have 6 Super Bowl Rings. Tune in or be tuned out.

Uncovering Hidden Gems in the 2021 Rookie Class

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The teams that are able to uncover the hidden gems in rookie drafts inherently gain a major value boost. For example, teams that drafted Antonio Gibson and Chase Claypool last year had their teams injected with elite talent at late rookie draft cost. And those fantasy managers who drafted James Robinson at the end of their drafts or scooped him off waivers early in the offseason were likely rewarded a playoff berth. 

By finding those diamonds in the rough, you can gain a huge advantage in retooling for the following season or preparing for a championship run.

Here are rookie sleepers that you should see if you can grab off the wire or get as toss-ins in your next trade.

Running Backs

Chris Evans – Cincinnati Bengals

The former Michigan Wolverine has the size to be a 3-down back in the NFL with elite burst and agility. But because he ended up behind Joe Mixon in Cincy, Evans is frequently available late in rookie drafts and sitting on the waiver wire in dynasty leagues. A skilled runner at Michigan, Evans was on track to be drafted much earlier but an academic suspension changed the course of his NFL trajectory. After getting only 16 carries in his final college season, Evans inevitably slipped in the draft to the 6th round.

Early reports out of Bengals OTAs are that offensive coordinator Brian Callahan has raved over Chris Evans’ pass-catching prowess. Callahan noted that Evans has the most natural hands for a running back that he ever been around. This could be a sign that Evans might see opportunities on third down. If history is any indication, the Bengals will want to spell Mixon on third downs with a strong pass-catcher like they used Giovanni Bernard. Additionally, if Mixon were to go down to another injury, Evans could see himself in a huge role.

Gerrid Doaks – Miami Dolphins

Gerrid Doaks’ production at Cincinnati wasn’t great but he has the physical tools to be a force in the NFL with great size and burst. His production profile. GM Chris Grier is on record talking about Doaks’ physical game and the energy he brings on every play. With an elite defense, Head Coach Brian Flores appears to want a power running game to pair with his defense and to take pressure off his franchise QB in Tua Tagovailoa.

Even though Myles Gaskin performed well last season, he doesn’t really have the size to be a featured NFL back who can handle 250+ touches. Although I am a fan of Gaskin and think he can hold off Doaks, it would make sense to hedge on this bet and stash the rookie RB. 

Wide Receivers

Ihmir Smith-Marsette – Minnesota Vikings

At only 21 years old and somewhat of a raw prospect, Ihmir Smith-Marsette had a late breakout at age 20 but still possesses a good amount of upside. With a shallow depth chart ahead of him, ISM has a good chance to not only secure a roster spot but find a role in three receiver sets in his rookie year. There are not enough people who realize that the Vikings WR room is barren after its top 2 options – Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. There is little competition for targets after those top WRs and Irv Smith, even in a conservative run-heavy offense. In addition, Thielen has suffered hamstring injuries in the past and according to Sports Injury Predictor, there is a 57% chance that Thielen will suffer an injury in 2021. Even if Thielen misses a single game, that could be enough for Smith-Marsette to have a breakout game and solidify a case to see more playing time.

ISM seems to be a roster lock given his special teams ability and the shallow Vikings depth chart, even as a fifth round pick. In fact, early reports out of the Vikings organization suggest that the team believes Smith-Marsette has untapped potential and is giving the rookie every opportunity to secure the WR3 spot on the team. Smith-Marsette has the ability to inside and outside and displayed burst and good body control. In addition, ISM is a good route runner who makes strong cuts. His main weakness is making contested catches which he will need to develop. If he can tap into that talent the Vikings believe he has, the rookie WR can become an interesting player for fantasy purposes.

Anthony Schwartz – Cleveland Browns

Anthony Schwartz is a WR who possesses elite Olympic level speed (4.27 40 at his Pro Day), good draft capital (round 3), and is only 20 years old making Schwartz an intriguing prospect. Schwartz could have been an Olympic track star if he didn’t want to pursue a football career. This is the type of player you want to have stashed on your dynasty teams in the event he can put it all together with route running and the nuances of the game. Schwartz has that high of a ceiling. 

The former Auburn standout has a decent chance of making the Browns roster even though the depth chart is stocked with talent headlined by Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham along with Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Schwartz’s blazing speed will give him an opportunity to play in his rookie season on special teams as a kick returner which will only aid in his development. The speedster was utilized on running plays at Auburn, accounting for 7 rushing touchdowns during his college career. He may be called upon to provide a spark on offense with manufactured touches. However, Schwartz will need to continue developing as a well-rounded receiver by improving his route tree and mastering the Browns playbook. If he can do those things, he can unlock his potential and provide a spark to the Cleveland offense as well as the fantasy teams he’s rostered on. 

Tight Ends

Kylen Granson – Indianapolis Colts

The TE position is largely considered a wasteland in fantasy football so when you can add a tight end with top end speed, burst, agility, it’s hard to pass up as an UDFA or late round flyer like Kylen Granson. The SMU standout boasts an age 18 breakout season and falls in the 86th percentile in terms of yards per reception.

Granson finds himself on the Colts led by Carson Wentz who loves to pass to his tight ends (see Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert). Outside of TY Hilton (who is aging and well past his prime), the Colts do not have a strong receiving core with question marks around Michael Pittman, Jr. and Parris Campbell. There are two incumbent TEs on the Colts roster (Mo Alie-Cox and Jack Doyle), but Granson profiles as a move tight end and looks to be a strong fit with Frank Reich’s offense. Alie-Cox and Doyle are not known to be TEs that excel playing detached or out of the slot, which is where Granson does his best work. It isn’t hard to imagine the Colts building an offensive scheme predicated on running the ball and allowing Wentz to reestablish his confidence through a conservative approach, mixing in the occasional deep ball. This could feed into Granson’s ability to make plays after the catch and extend gains. Granson plays much like a WR and is a strong pass catcher, capable of breaking big plays and vertically stretching the field. The Colts have not had a strong tight end in recent years as they rotated between Doyle, Trey Burton, and Alie-Cox last season, so Granson has an opportunity in Indy. Granson should be picked up after rookie drafts in most dynasty leagues.

Noah Grey – Kansas City Chiefs

Another sleeper on the Chiefs is this TE who boasts very good speed as he ran a 4..67 40. For comparison, Kelce ran a 4.66 although Kelce boasts better top end speed, burst, and agility. But Grey is no slouch athletically as he has above average athleticism all around. The aforementioned Kelce is still elite but he also turns 32 this season and there is no one of significance to carry on the torch.

James Palmer of the NFL Network recently reported that the Chiefs traded up to draft the Duke tight end to play him alongside Travis Kelce in 12-personnel sets. With the lack of receiving threats outside of Kelce and Tyreek Hill, Gray could have a chance to play a key role in the high-powered Kansas City passing attack. Mecole Hardman has disappointed mightily and this may force the Chiefs to look to make plays in the short and intermediate passing game when Kelce and Hill are focused on by opposing defenses. Gray is a great stash, especially in any dynasty league that offers a TE premium.

The Art of Dynasty | Chapter 10 (Bayesian Inference)

Building a dynasty fantasy football team requires strategic thinking and football acumen similar to planning a long military campaign. You must intimately understand your leaguemates’ rosters and tendencies, diligently prepare for the rookie draft and waiver wire, and thoughtfully craft a balanced yet versatile roster aligned to your vision. Knowing when to push all chips to the table for a title run or temporarily rebuild for sustained excellence is equally critical. The finest dynasty owners combine sharp situational analysis with statistical rigor and old-fashioned football study to construct juggernauts that dominate their leagues for years.

This guide outlines core tenets to help you architect a formidable roster poised for both immediate and enduring success. By internalizing essential dynasty strategies around planning, preparation, roster construction, and pivoting between competing goals, you too can rule over your leaguemates year after year like a battle-tested emperor of old.

  1. Startup Drafts
  2. Roster Construction
  3. Ideal Archetypes
  4. Ship Chasing
  5. Iron Bank
  6. Rookie Pick Values
  7. Rookie Drafts
  8. Trading
  9. Roster Management
  10. Bayesian Inference
  11. Startup Supreme
  12. Roster Crunch
  13. Trade Assessment
  14. Productive Struggle
  15. Game Theory
  16. Startup Trades & Pick Swaps
  17. Winning the Offseason
  18. Rebuild Roadmap
  19. Revanche
  20. Kingdom Come

Take lock and stubbornness are a death sentence in dynasty fantasy football. Bayesian Inference is all about changing your opinions and thoughts around a player given new information. This chapter explores how to apply Bayesian principles to your dynasty strategies, helping you avoid common biases and make more informed decisions.

Understanding Bayesian Inference

Bayesian Inference involves processing as much data as possible and avoiding “take lock.” This means continuously updating your beliefs based on new evidence. Brian notes that you should process new information, compare it to what we already know, and use that to create a new opinion. The only wrong take is one that is not open to change based on new information.

he NFL landscape is constantly changing and so are the outlooks of players in terms of fantasy football. This is why many smart fantasy gamers will tell you to “buy the dip” on players who are expected to bounce back. As I mentioned in Chapter 8, you should look to trade for players who you expect to return to form. A player who has a proven track record over his career should be bet on to get back on track. But applying Bayesian principles to fantasy football goes both ways. As you notice a downward trend on certain players, consider moving off of them before it’s too late.

  1. Continuous Learning
    • Data Processing: Regularly incorporate new data and insights into your player evaluations.
    • Flexible Opinions: Be willing to adjust your stance on players as new information becomes available.
  2. Adapting to Change
    • Market Shifts: Recognize that the NFL landscape and player outlooks are constantly changing.
    • Player Performance: Be prepared to buy the dip on players expected to bounce back based on historical performance and current trends.

Avoid Anchoring

With that said, Bayesian Inference also tells us that we need to constantly be changing the way we view players who have “burned” us in the past. Players who started off their careers in a lackluster fashion, but eventually break out should be viewed without bias. Anchoring is the idea that we use pre-existing data as a reference point for all subsequent data, which can skew our decision-making processes. This causes us to rely too heavily on past information. By utilizing Bayesian principles in our fantasy processes, we can avoid falling prey to anchoring bias.

  1. Re-Evaluate Players
    • Fresh Perspectives: Continuously reassess players who have “burned” you in the past or started their careers slowly but have shown improvement.
    • Unbiased Evaluation: Avoid letting past performances unduly influence your current assessments.

Be flexible, read nuances, identify trends, and change your perspective and adjust.

Buying the Dip

Smart fantasy gamers often advise “buying the dip” on players who are expected to return to form. A player with a proven track record over his career should be bet on to get back on track.

  1. Identify Targets
    • Track Record: Look for players with historically strong performance who are currently undervalued.
    • Temporary Setbacks: Target players who may have had a down year due to injury or other temporary factors.
  2. Timely Trades
    • Market Timing: Trade for these players before their value rebounds, capitalizing on the temporary dip in their market value.
    • Leverage Historical Data: Use past performance data to predict potential rebound seasons from historically proven producers.

Selling Before Decline

Applying Bayesian principles also involves recognizing downward trends in certain players and moving off of them before it’s too late.

  1. Monitor Trends
    • Performance Declines: Keep an eye on players showing signs of decline in their performance metrics.
    • Injury Risks: Be cautious of players with increasing injury histories or age-related declines.
  2. Strategic Sales
    • Maximize Value: Trade these players while they still hold significant market value.
    • Avoid Anchoring: Do not let past success anchor your decision to hold onto a declining player.

Advanced Applications

Statistical Improvement

Analyzing statistical improvements over time can provide insights into a player’s development trajectory and future potential.

  1. Predictive Modeling
    • Trend Analysis: Use historical trends to predict future performance improvements or declines.
    • Adjust Projections: Continuously adjust your player projections based on the latest data and observed trends.

Flexibility in Strategy

Being flexible, reading nuances, identifying trends, and changing your perspective based on new information are key to long-term success in dynasty fantasy football.

  1. Dynamic Adjustments
    • Player Evaluations: Regularly update your evaluations based on new data, avoiding rigid adherence to outdated opinions.
    • Strategic Shifts: Be willing to shift your strategy as new information emerges, ensuring you remain competitive.
  2. Identifying Trends
    • Emerging Patterns: Stay ahead of the curve by identifying emerging trends before they become mainstream.
    • Proactive Moves: Make proactive moves based on these trends, positioning yourself for future success.

Applying Bayesian Inference to your dynasty fantasy football strategy involves continuous learning, adapting to new information, and avoiding common biases like anchoring. By staying flexible and open to change, you can make more informed decisions, buy the dip on undervalued players, and sell before a decline. This strategic approach will help you build a resilient and competitive dynasty team capable of sustained success.

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SFB11 | Zero WR Strategy

The Undroppables bring you another Scott Fish Bowl Draft Strategy video, this time examining Zero WR strategy.

See what Dan (@AWLsabermetrics), Brian (@BpoFSU), and Michael (@mpduncan75) put together through a mock draft on The Football Workshop. It’s your time to cram before Draft Day!

SFB11 | Zero RB Strategy

The boys are back with another #SFB11 draft strategy video! This time tackling the controversial Zero RB strategy. Is this strategy for everyone? No. But Brian (@bpoFSU) and Dan (@AWLsabermetrics) show you how to use this strategy to create a winning roster.