Building a dynasty fantasy football team requires strategic thinking and football acumen similar to planning a long military campaign. You must intimately understand your leaguemates’ rosters and tendencies, diligently prepare for the rookie draft and waiver wire, and thoughtfully craft a balanced yet versatile roster aligned to your vision. Knowing when to push all chips to the table for a title run or temporarily rebuild for sustained excellence is equally critical. The finest dynasty owners combine sharp situational analysis with statistical rigor and old-fashioned football study to construct juggernauts that dominate their leagues for years.

This guide outlines core tenets to help you architect a formidable roster poised for both immediate and enduring success. By internalizing essential dynasty strategies around planning, preparation, roster construction, and pivoting between competing goals, you too can rule over your leaguemates year after year like a battle-tested emperor of old.

1. Startup Drafts
2. Roster Construction
3. Ideal Archetypes
4. Ship Chasing
5. Iron Bank
6. Rookie Pick Values
7. Rookie Drafts
8. Trading
9. Roster Management
10. Bayesian Inference
11. Startup Supreme
12. Roster Crunch
13. Trade Assessment
14. Productive Struggle
15. Game Theory
16. Startup Trades & Pick Swaps
17. Winning the Offseason
18. Rebuild Roadmap
19. Revanche
20. Kingdom Come

Targeting Ideal Archetypes

Building predictive models is not the only way to find the players you want on your dynasty teams. In contrast, you want to identify the ideal archetypes of players who are proven performers. As such, Jax Falcone has done an incredible job outlining these archetypes in his highly-acclaimed Dynasty Anatomy Series.

You may want to research and develop your own archetypes but Jax has laid the foundation for us.

Anatomy of a Top-16 Dynasty QB

• (Early) 1st round Draft Capital
• 6’2” / 220 lbs.+ is the ideal size
• College Yards Per Attempt of 8.0 with at least one season with 8.5+ YPA
• College Completion % of 62% or better with at least one season over 65%
• Best College Season with at least 3,200+ passing yards and 35+ total touchdowns
• Best College Season with at least 300 rushing yards
• 40-Time of 4.80 or faster
• College career interception rate below 2.7%
• 600+ total college career passing attempts

To see how Jax reached these conclusions and developed this QB archetype, check out his process here.

Anatomy of Top-18 Dynasty WR

• Top 100 NFL Draft pick
• 6’0” / 205 lbs.
• Breakout Age of 20 or younger
• College Dominator Rating of at least 30% in best college season
• Posted at least one season with 600+ receiving yards by sophomore year
• Posted at least one season with at least 5 TDs by sophomore year
• At least 2.50 yards per team pass attempt in best college season
• At least 30% touchdown market share in best college season
• 4.60 40-time or better

Read more about the Anatomy of a Top-18 dynasty WR.

Additionally, @DynastySFlex built upon Jax’s archetypes and broke WR criteria down based on size since we know that WRs in the NFL are increasingly becoming smaller (and faster), even though alpha dogs will always be highly desired and favored.

Criteria for WRs under 6’0″

• 1st or 2nd round Draft Capital
• Breakout Age of 20 or younger
• Body Mass Index (BMI) over 26.25
• College Dominator Rating of at least 35%
• Average Market Share of team’s receiving yards greater than 26.5%
• Throw out scat backs turned WR

Ron Stewart has also done studies on smaller WRs and recently developed a concept called “dynamic betas”. I love his work so make sure to check him out.

Criteria for Dynamic Betas

• Beta WR (fails to meet 5’11+, 195+ ibs, 26+ BMI)
• Between 5’9″ and 5’11”
• 175+ lbs.
• 25+ BMI
• Dynamic Score (per Breakout Finder or Ron Stewart) of at least 10

A couple of observations: With shorter WRs, you’ll want them to have a higher BMI and to have more dominant college careers to offset for their shorter height. And of course, speed and athleticism will be important for these WRs to be successful. Strong kick and punt return and rushing yards are indicators of a high Dynamic Score.

Anatomy of a Top-16 Dynasty RB

• Drafted on Day 1 or 2
• Early Declare
• Weighs over 210 with Body Mass Index (BMI) over 30
• Sub 4.55 speed with a speed score over 100
• At least 1 college season with over 25 receptions
• Freshman or Sophomore season production of over 1,000 rushing yards
• Above-average Burst Score of 120+
• 6.0+ college yards per carry

Check out Jax’s full breakdown of the Anatomy of a top-16 dynasty RB.

With all this said about archetypes, I should be careful not to discount predictive analytics as they can also be useful in a process. David Willsey has done an incredible job with a unique approach to predictive models and has been generous enough to share his process and database. Check it out here.

Another friend and great analytical mind, David Zach, has developed the RB Fantasy Z-Score This model gives a comprehensive grade for rookie RBs, consisting of:

• Draft Capital
• Athleticism Score
• College Production (adjusted for competition)
• Yards Created
• Offensive Line
• Landing Spot

Dive into David Zach’s work here.

If you are interested in developing your own archetype and/or predictive model, I highly suggest utilizing a comprehensive database like the one Peter Howard has created and generously shared with all. Find it here.

Anatomy of a Top-8 Dynasty TE

• Day 1 or 2 Draft Capital
• 6’4” / 245 lbs.
• Sub 4.70/40-time
• 100+ Speed Score
• 14 yards per reception in best college season
• 1.50 Yards per team pass attempt in best college season
• 20%+ TD rate in best college season

Check out Jax’s full breakdown of the Anatomy of a top-8 dynasty TE.

Become a Patron!

Building a dynasty fantasy football team requires strategic thinking and football acumen similar to planning a long military campaign. You must intimately understand your leaguemates’ rosters and tendencies, diligently prepare for the rookie draft and waiver wire, and thoughtfully craft a balanced yet versatile roster aligned to your vision. Knowing when to push all chips to the table for a title run or temporarily rebuild for sustained excellence is equally critical. The finest dynasty owners combine sharp situational analysis with statistical rigor and old-fashioned football study to construct juggernauts that dominate their leagues for years.

This guide outlines core tenets to help you architect a formidable roster poised for both immediate and enduring success. By internalizing essential dynasty strategies around planning, preparation, roster construction, and pivoting between competing goals, you too can rule over your leaguemates year after year like a battle-tested emperor of old.

1. Startup Drafts
2. Roster Construction
3. Ideal Archetypes
4. Ship Chasing
5. Iron Bank
6. Rookie Pick Values
7. Rookie Drafts
8. Trading
9. Roster Management
10. Bayesian Inference
11. Startup Supreme
12. Roster Crunch
13. Trade Assessment
14. Productive Struggle
15. Game Theory
16. Startup Trades & Pick Swaps
17. Winning the Offseason
18. Rebuild Roadmap
19. Revanche
20. Kingdom Come

Constructing a Dynasty Roster with Win-Now Principles

When building a dynasty roster, use lifetime value projections as a guide, but understand that situations change rapidly in the NFL. Construct your team to win now while also planning for the future.

Too often, dynasty managers get lost chasing youth and only look 2-3 years ahead. Although dynasty is a long-term format, circumstances shift quickly – new additions can make players irrelevant, injuries happen, legal issues arise. With so many variables, do not expect stability.

Despite popular belief, dynasty is more similar to redraft than most admit. You should aim to compete immediately, not just build for some distant window. Stockpiling promising players may never yield a contender. Production wins titles, not potential. Acquire proven assets.

Many dynasty players want the youngest rosters, slowly constructing a theoretical powerhouse. But this overlooks the ultimate goal – winning championships. In my early startups, I focused on high-upside rookies and ignored proven veterans. My teams had “Twitter darlings” but few reliable scorers, making immediate contention unlikely. Sure, I got lucky a few times, but this is an unsustainable strategy. Flipping back to the startup draft strategy outlined in Chapter 1, use the hype around young players to your advantage and trade back where you can.

1. Immediate Contention
   • Compete Now: Aim to compete immediately, not just build for some distant window. Production wins titles, not potential. Focus on acquiring proven assets.
   • Proven Veterans: Prioritize players with a track record of production over unproven rookies or prospects.
2. Balance Future Planning
   • Long-Term Viability: While focusing on the present, ensure your roster retains some long-term potential by mixing in younger players with upside.
   • Adaptability: Be prepared to adjust your strategy as circumstances change, maintaining flexibility in your roster construction.

Avoid Overvaluing Youth

A fatal flaw is overvaluing youth and underappreciating reliable veterans. In win-now mode, trade unproven players and future picks for established producers selling at a discount. Recency bias cuts both ways – use hype after rookie breakouts to deal likely unsustainable assets.

Conversely, know when to move on from aging players before the cliff. This balancing act is critical. Due to year-to-year NFL attrition, 75% of players will fade to irrelevance within 3 years. Avoid accumulating roster-cloggers you can’t let go of.

Since some rostered players will inevitably decline, devote 2-3 spots to developmental prospects. This ensures you don’t drop future breakout candidates progressing slower than others.

1. Trade Strategy
   • Capitalizing on Hype: Use the hype around young players to your advantage and trade back where you can.
   • Acquire Veterans: Target established veterans who are undervalued due to age or recent underperformance.
2. Timing and Patience
   • Move on from Aging Players: Know when to move on from aging players before they decline significantly. Monitor performance trends and make preemptive moves.
   • Develop Prospects: Allocate 2-3 roster spots for developmental prospects who may take longer to break out.

Strategic Roster Construction

Building a balanced roster requires careful planning and strategic thinking. Here are actionable insights to help you construct a competitive and sustainable dynasty roster.

Player Acquisition

1. Target Proven Producers
   • Immediate Impact: Focus on acquiring players who can contribute immediately. This includes targeting top-tier talent in the early rounds of your startup draft.
   • Discounted Veterans: Look for veterans who are undervalued due to age or recent dips in performance but have a history of productivity.
2. Youth with Upside
   • High-Upside Rookies: Draft or trade for high-upside rookies who have shown potential but ensure they are not the core of your roster.
   • Developmental Spots: Use a few roster spots for young players who may develop into starters in the future.

Trade Tactics

1. Use Hype to Your Advantage
   • Sell High: Trade young players who have had breakout performances at their peak value.
   • Buy Low: Acquire established players who are currently undervalued due to recency bias or minor setbacks.
2. Balanced Trades
   • Short-Term and Long-Term: Ensure trades help your team in the short term while also considering long-term implications. Avoid mortgaging your future entirely.
   • Rookie Picks: Use rookie picks strategically. Trade future picks for current production if you are in contention, but also stockpile picks during rebuilds.

Roster Management

1. Avoid Roster Cloggers
   • Regular Evaluation: Continuously evaluate your roster and be willing to cut players who no longer provide value.
   • Flexibility: Maintain roster flexibility by not holding onto players out of sentiment or potential alone.
2. Monitor Market Trends
   • Stay Informed: Keep up with NFL news, player performance trends, and market values. Use this information to make informed decisions.
   • Adjust Strategies: Be ready to adjust your strategies based on new information and changing circumstances.

Constructing a dynasty roster with win-now principles involves balancing immediate success with long-term planning. Avoid overvaluing youth and focus on acquiring proven producers who can help you compete now. Stay flexible, monitor trends, and be willing to adjust your strategies as new information emerges.